00:00Now we can bring in Anahita Modazed-Rad, visiting senior fellow in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics.
00:10Anahita, thanks so much for joining us today.
00:13Now, these talks we've been discussing have been taking place as President Trump built up U.S. forces in the region.
00:22What sort of message is that sending to Tehran while they're trying to go to the negotiating table?
00:30OK, thank you for having me.
00:33In this message, according to the President Trump administration, they just give one more chance to the Islamic Republic to come to the negotiation table.
00:44And they are intendedly, I mean, the U.S. administration, just trying to keep alive the negotiation line to see that really what comes up with the Islamic Republic leaders at the time, if they think that they are at existential threat moment and they want to deliver something.
01:08And I think that President Trump and his administration has repeatedly mentioned that they prioritize diplomacy rather than any kind of military operation at the first hand.
01:22And they have also stated repeatedly their conditions and added to all those conditions, the three previous conditions, they added also the violation of human rights at the time to that.
01:37So I think that we should say, see how it is going on.
01:44Well, I think that also we have to care that if the Trump administration is not just going for the military option at this time, it is a kind of more tactical caution.
01:57And I wouldn't see it as a strategic setback.
02:01And they are saying that what the Iranian leaders and Iran foreign minister, what they are offering at the time in the negotiation, in the new round of negotiations.
02:14Now, Anahita, as you mentioned there, Iran wants to talk about its nuclear program and it really doesn't want to talk about anything else.
02:23But as you mentioned, the U.S. does want to talk about these other things, the human rights record, ballistic missiles, you know, Iran's support for terror proxies, possibly.
02:34But we just heard from our correspondent in Tehran where he said that it appears that the bar has been set low for the for the opening of these talks and purposely so to ease tensions.
02:46Do you agree with that assessment?
02:48It could be, yes, because and even I just add one another point, Iran even shifted the location of the talks from Turkey to Oman intendedly exactly to, you know, seize all these, you know, kind of tensions that are at its highest in a way.
03:09So Iranians are very good at negotiation, many believe that, but still with the President Trump administration, we should see that whether this kind of, you know, approach and tactical, you know, approach of Iranian leaders at the time would work anymore or not.
03:29Because as I think many of us have heard yesterday from President Trump, this would be the last chance of Iranians if they want to have a chance of diplomacy.
03:42Otherwise, they, they, they, they, the President Trump wouldn't hesitate anymore if they want just to prolong their negotiation to find a way for the moment just released from these high, you know, pressure on them at the moment.
03:59Because Iranians, because Iran has, this time, it's not just about their, you know, status at the region region and the problem with the U.S., but also domestically, they are facing a very critical time due to the recent protests and the massacre that happened in Iran.
04:19Now, I think that's an interesting point that you make there, Anahita, that possibly one of the things Iran is hoping to get out of these talks is sort of to stall for time and possibly to regroup.
04:32And they've been quite, quite vocal, saber rattling as well, you know, warning the U.S. if they start a war, it will be a regional war.
04:42But still, the government is vulnerable.
04:44So, at this point, do you believe the U.S. and its allies, Israel, are still interested in regime change there?
04:54Okay, I think, thank you, very good question.
04:57I think about this kind of starting and, you know, launching a kind of regional war if the U.S. attack Iran.
05:06First, we should bear in mind that in terms of the military capabilities, U.S. and Iran are not in the same, you know, position.
05:19That's a very important point.
05:20However, Iran can do some retaliation if any military strike happens, in a way, it brings some cost for maybe for the U.S. forces and even U.S. forces bases across the region.
05:41But this doesn't mean that would create, in a way, maybe a serious problem.
05:47But at the same time, I think I lost your second part of the question.
05:54If you just repeat about the domestic point, I think it was.
05:57Yes, I was just saying that the regime appears, you know, after the prolonged protests, it's quite weak at the moment.
06:06And, you know, Trump had originally said he was going to attack if they didn't stop killing protesters.
06:14So, but the thing is, if there is regime change, who steps in?
06:20Yes, yes.
06:21Yes, exactly.
06:22Actually, okay, there is a lot of, you know, debate about the President Trump, you know, statement about supporting Iranian peoples at the time of the protest.
06:32But at the same time, he stepped back and he didn't do anything.
06:36Just, you know, we, at the moment, we see a large number of the mass force in the Middle East and very heavy military equipment there
06:47that are ready for any oncoming, you know, upcoming military action.
06:53But at the same time, I think that this position of the President Trump administration was mostly because of that kind of tactical caution that he had,
07:07because he wanted to calculate everything, because Iran is not a very simple country.
07:12I don't believe that, for example, if you just compare Iran with Syria or any other, Libya or any other countries,
07:20that such a thing has happened and even military intervention by the foreign forces has happened there.
07:28So they should be more cautious.
07:30I think it is more rational in a way, but this doesn't mean that it wouldn't happen.
07:36And also, I think that if you think that Iranians are at the weakest position, that they cannot do anything,
07:49I don't see so much, you know, should be true, because Iran is not a very, you know, simple country.
07:59It is at the heart of the Middle East with its importance, geopolitical and geoeconomic importance,
08:04especially the economic republic, from the very beginning day of its creation and establishment.
08:12They have been created with crisis, they have been grown with crisis, they have been flourished by different crises,
08:21and they could consolidate their power not only domestically, but also regionally with all this crisis.
08:30So even if we assume that the weakest position, weakest Iran could not have any further threats for the region and for its neighbors,
08:45I think it would be a very simplistic argument.
08:48So at any time, and that's the reason I think that the other neighbor countries, including the Arab states,
08:55they are speaking and they are keeping negotiating with the U.S. to bring down, to bringing Iran accountable in terms of the range of their ballistic missile,
09:11including Israel as well, including Israel as well, I should add to the Arab states,
09:14that's also Israel as well, in terms of its nuclear capabilities, and also the proxy forces,
09:25because everyone are, you know, feeling that if any kind of, if Iran, even with this weakest position,
09:33stand there, there is no guarantee that they would be safe anymore.
09:38And even there is also, I want to reach, may I continue or stop here?
09:45Now, Anahita, I'm glad you brought up the Arab states in the region.
09:50So I just wanted to ask you a quick question.
09:53Obviously, they're all watching this very closely and the outcome of the talks.
09:58Do you think that they would prefer to see a weakened Iran to a failed state?
10:04Okay, yeah, very good point and very good question.
10:11And I don't think that, first, we cannot see that, that kind of weakened Iran that maybe anyone expects to have,
10:23but maybe they would rather, because of many issues,
10:27they would rather to have a kind of a stable, even authoritative system at the time,
10:33because they don't want to have more chaos, more destabilization across the region,
10:38destabilization in terms of market, and then even outcomes,
10:42including having the, maybe the intensifying the proxy forces across the region,
10:49especially in the Arab countries, in the Persian Gulf region, and even Iraq or the other neighbors.
10:56And also, maybe there would be more chaos.
10:58And in terms of any kind of, if military action happens, they are also,
11:03they would consider the likely, I don't say for certain,
11:09but I see that the likely refugee flows of Iranians to the other countries, the neighborhood countries.
11:18So, at the same time, I think I should mention another kind of debates that are going on,
11:28and we hear that privately, they are keeping negotiating with the U.S.
11:34in terms of changing the regime at this point, because this is a very critical point.
11:42If, you know, Iran is a very big country, extensive country,
11:47and now you have an Iran with several and continuous crisis,
11:54very, very shortly to each other.
11:56Just imagine that since the 2022, the Women's Life Freedom Movement,
12:03it was first, you know, the protests, the Iranian protests,
12:07and Iranian domestic instability was periodic, but now it has been more constant.
12:14So, having in the country like Iran at the neighborhood,
12:18with such a kind of, you know, instability, deep instability at the time,
12:22it would create also another, I think, another kind of very deep problems
12:30for the other Arab states and even the other neighbors.
12:33So, they even, there is some speculation about they are also speaking very seriously,
12:42that it is necessary for them to have the regime change in Iran
12:46and look at the next stage, which would be the transition,
12:50that I think that you raised it in your previous question.
12:55Yes. Okay. Thank you so much, Anahita,
12:57for sharing your expertise with us on the program.
13:01That's Anahita Modizad Rad, visiting senior fellow
13:04in the Department of International Relations
13:06at the London School of Economics.
13:09Moving on.
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