00:10Welcome to the programme.
00:12The European Union has today adopted...
00:15...new sanctions on Iran and has also, we're hearing, within the last few minutes...
00:20...designated the Revolutionary Guards, a terror organisation...
00:25...now this action comes in the wake of the brutal crackdown by Iranian authorities...
00:30...on anti-government protesters earlier on this month, which left thousands of people.
00:34...dead.
00:35Now, while the EU is focused on sanctions this week, President Donald Trump...
00:39...is once again threatening military action in a post on his platform...
00:44...truth social, Trump wrote that time is running out for Iran to make a deal, saying that...
00:49...a huge American armada was heading towards the country.
00:54Well, our first report for you takes a look at the Revolutionary Guards, because as I say...
00:59...within the last few minutes, the Foreign Policy Chief of the EU has posted...
01:04...on the platform X to say that the EU has agreed to add...
01:09...that group to its list of terror organisations.
01:14It's one of Iran's most powerful organisations.
01:19The Revolutionary Guard Corps was founded in 1979 by Ayatollah...
01:24...a few months after the Islamic Revolution.
01:28It's an elite...
01:29...military organisation that works as a counterweight to the traditional armed forces.
01:34...and reports directly to Iran's supreme leader.
01:37Their mission to protect the EU...
01:39...islamic regime, maintain order, and prevent any potential coup d'etat.
01:44While the IRGC oversees the coup d'etat force, which is responsible...
01:49...for foreign operations, it's also influential in national politics.
01:54Former Revolutionary Guards members hold key positions in the government.
01:59Currently, there are about 200,000 members in the IRGC.
02:04It controls key sectors of the Iranian economy, oil, construction...
02:09...telecommunications, and finance, and is believed to hold up to 50% of the...
02:14...country's oil wealth.
02:15The IRGC also runs a vast intelligence...
02:19...in service, and has its own army, navy, and air units.
02:23It controls...
02:24...the Iran's ballistic missiles program.
02:27One of the IRGC's most fierce...
02:29...units is the besieged paramilitary force...
02:32...which claims it can mobilize...
02:34...up to 600,000 volunteers.
02:37Its members are often called up...
02:39...in times of unrest, like during the Women Life Freedom Movement in late 2022.
02:44...and the more recent anti-government protests.
02:47Despite the IRGC's...
02:49...power, the institution has suffered major losses in recent years...
02:53...including the...
02:54...the death of General Qasem Soleimani...
02:56...the leader of the Quds Force...
02:58...killed in a U.S.
02:59...strike six years ago.
03:01And IRGC leader, Hossein Salami...
03:04...killed in an Israeli airstrike last June.
03:09...with me live now on the program...
03:11...to talk about events in Iran...
03:13...and these sort of...
03:14...boring tensions...
03:15...with Western countries...
03:16...is Ali Valles.
03:17He's the director of...
03:19...of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
03:22Hello to you and thanks for speaking to us here.
03:24...on France 24.
03:26My pleasure.
03:27Thanks for having me.
03:28I want to ask you first...
03:29...about what we've just heard...
03:31...from the European Union's foreign policy...
03:34...chief Kaye Callas...
03:35...who says that...
03:36...it has now been confirmed...
03:37...that the EU is to add the IRGC...
03:39...to its list of terror groups...
03:41...alongside organisations...
03:42...like ISIS and Al Qaeda.
03:44...how significant is that?
03:47Well, it is very significant.
03:49It is a new low for...
03:51...Iran-Europe's relationship.
03:53It is certainly...
03:54...going to result in more tensions...
03:56...and could have...
03:57...negative...
03:58...con...
03:59...consequences...
04:00...for both sides.
04:01We have to wait and see...
04:03...but this is...
04:04...one has to remember...
04:05...that the Iranian regime...
04:06...feels increasingly cornered.
04:08...
04:09...and could now do things...
04:11...that are much more reckless...
04:12...because it increasingly has...
04:14...less to lose.
04:16...and by designating the IRGC...
04:18...you're...
04:19...the Europeans...
04:20...have now crossed...
04:21...a regime red line...
04:22...and therefore...
04:23...European...
04:24...citizens...
04:25...in Iran...
04:26...tourists...
04:27...academics...
04:28...could all be...
04:29...in...
04:29...in danger...
04:30...and so is the case...
04:31...for European interests...
04:32...in and around the region.
04:34That said though...
04:35...the strategy taken...
04:36...by the European Union...
04:37...is obviously...
04:38...very different in tone...
04:39...after that taken...
04:40...by Donald Trump...
04:41...who posted...
04:42...you know...
04:43...on Truth Social yesterday...
04:44...really directly...
04:45...threatening the Iranian regime...
04:47...once again...
04:48...this after...
04:49...it looked like...
04:50...a week or so ago...
04:51...that he was backing away...
04:52...from this option...
04:53...of striking...
04:54...Iran...
04:55...how serious then...
04:57...do you think...
04:58...the...
04:59...or how...
04:59...or perhaps...
05:00...how likely...
05:01...do you think...
05:02...the threat of war...
05:03...actually is now...
05:04...between the United States...
05:05...and...
05:06...Iran...
05:07I have to say the European designation of revolutionary guards is kind of mimicking U.S. policy present.
05:12Trump, in his first term, designated the Revolutionary Guards as a foreign terrorist organization.
05:17You see the impact of that designation is that the Revolutionary Guards has become only more repressive.
05:22And has caused the massacre with the recent protests in Iran.
05:26So in terms of.
05:27The effectiveness of these kind of punishments, one has to really question the wisdom.
05:32Of the strategy in terms of U.S. military options, look, the reality.
05:37Is that there is no such a thing as a limited military strike.
05:40If the U.S. decides.
05:42To do political decapitation or target Revolutionary Guards repressive apparatus.
05:47Or command and control.
05:48In all of these cases, Iran is likely to attack.
05:52to evaluate in a disproportionate manner.
05:54Because this is now a regime that is facing.
05:57an existential angst and is fighting for its life. And so the risk
06:02of a limited strike turning into an all out confrontation or a regional conflict
06:06aggression are very high. And this is why I think President Trump has been hesitating.
06:11And look, there is this expression, isn't there, when people talk about Donald Trump?
06:16Trump always chickens out, taco, people call it. And that refers to, you know, whether that's on.
06:21Tariffs, Greenland, or perhaps regarding strikes on Iran.
06:26The thinking would go, look, his goal isn't so much, you know, regime change.
06:31In Iran, as it is trying to get Iran back to the negotiating table to talk about some.
06:36Kind of nuclear deal. Do you think the Iranian authorities?
06:41Are interested in that at this point? Do they want to talk to the Americans?
06:46Well, they have said that they're interested in talking to the Americans, but in order to get a.
06:51reasonable and fair agreement not to surrender.
06:56U.S. terms. And this is, I think, you know, that the Iranian regime.
07:01I think it's the only thing that is more dangerous than suffering from a U.S. strike or.
07:06continued economic strangulation is surrendering to U.S. terms because that would.
07:11indicate that the regime is in a position of weakness and that would only.
07:16increase the pressure on the Islamic Republic and not alleviate it.
07:20Yeah.
07:21Look, and when we talk about kind of rhetoric over the past.
07:26couple of days, we have obviously had that language from Donald Trump that I talked about.
07:29And we've also had Iranian.
07:31Soxies, though, haven't we, in Iraq, Qatayb, Hezbollah, the Houthis.
07:36in Yemen, threatening American assets in the region.
07:39But is it the reality?
07:41that actually Iran and its proxies are weak, weaker than they.
07:46were after the 12-day war back in June.
07:49And I just wondered from you.
07:51your view, how much of this is rhetoric by Iran and its allies and how much of it.
07:56clearly suggests their capacity to strike American interests if Iran is hit.
08:01Well, look, Iran and its proxies are weak.
08:07but they are not weak.
08:09Those two are not the same.
08:10They can still cause.
08:12Significant mayhem in and around the region.
08:17And one of the lessons that they have learned since October 7th is that if they all.
08:22If they all fight U.S. and Israel on their own, they would be pretty weak and they could be cut down.
08:27To size, but if they come together and deliver on that promise of a.
08:32Regional configuration, as you said, there is a possibility that Trump would chicken out.
08:37We saw this, of course, with the Houthis that once.
08:42The cost increased in terms of U.S. military intervention.
08:46The president.
08:47Pulled the plug on U.S. engagement against the Houthis.
08:51We saw this even.
08:52With President Trump's role model Ronald Reagan in 1980s when there was a.
08:57bombing in Beirut that killed 241 Americans, the U.S. left the region.
09:02So based on this conclusion, the Iranians have come up with a new.
09:07Doctrine, which basically says restraint is dangerous and.
09:12Only invites more escalation.
09:14And that's why I think in.
09:17scenario of another military confrontation, the risks are so much higher.
09:21And this is why.
09:22Iran's region and Iran's neighbors in the region have been asking the United States.
09:27to avert another military escalation.
09:29I just want to walk back a little bit, if we can.
09:32Talk about this crackdown that took place a couple of weeks ago now in Iran.
09:37It does seem by all accounts to have been an extremely violent, brutal crackdown.
09:42Crackdown by the regime on those who were out in the streets and you like everybody else.
09:47I've had a very hard time verifying the numbers of people killed because of restrictions by the.
09:52Ukrainian authorities.
09:52But I just would like to ask you about some of the figures because there's so much of this being talked.
09:57about this week, I've seen figures like 6000 people killed, I've seen some people say.
10:02It could be as many as 30,000 just as an expert on Iran.
10:07Those kind of figures strike you as plausible here.
10:12Well, they do and they are shocking to be honest this.
10:17This is without precedent.
10:18This regime has always been a repressive and.
10:22And homicidal regime.
10:25There's no doubt about it.
10:26There's no doubt about it.
10:27And it's still not serious that we a popular regime of average time, but, uh, it brought
10:29down the iron fist with.
10:30speed and ferocity.
10:31speed and ferocity.
10:31speed and ferocity.
10:32that we've never seen before.
10:34The explanation can be that this is because...
10:37It faced a convergence of internal pressures and external threats.
10:42In the way that it was unprecedented, the fact that the president of the United States...
10:47threatened direct military intervention in support of protests in Iran.
10:52The fact that former U.S. officials were coming out and saying behind every Iranian protester...
10:57there were Mossad agents.
11:00And the fact that...
11:02Iranian exile opposition was involved in mobilizing the protests.
11:07I think resulted in the regime panicking and behavior...
11:12behaving in an absolutely fortifying way.
11:16The extent of...
11:17this massacre, as you said, we still don't know.
11:20But I think the fact that it has occurred...
11:22is undeniable.
11:24All right, Ali Veyes, an Iran analyst at the...
11:27International Crisis Group.
11:28Really good to get your thoughts today, sir.
11:29Thank you very much.
11:31My pleasure.
11:32Thank you very much.
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