00:00We can now bring in Elisa Catalano, U.S. Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign
00:06Relations.
00:07Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:09I was just wondering if you could hear our correspondent from Jerusalem earlier.
00:15She said that now the Israeli plan is to bring about regime change in Iran by essentially knocking out the
00:21structure of the Islamic Republic.
00:23Do you share that assessment?
00:27Thank you for having me.
00:30I believe that there's a moment of opportunity here in the eyes of the Israeli leadership and the Israeli defense
00:36forces to create as much of a crisis in the regime leadership structure in Iran as possible.
00:43And so given the opportunity and the ability to target individuals in the leadership structure, I think they are taking
00:52those opportunities when they present themselves.
00:54The real question is, what is the tipping point from that crisis that potentially leads to regime collapse?
01:02I think so far the regime has been able to withstand the pressure.
01:07There's still resistance.
01:08There is still decision making and consolidation amongst the security apparatus still appears to be the case.
01:15But I think we have to question our assumptions about how much of this kind of targeting the regime can
01:23withstand before we see the kinds of cracks that the Israelis are trying to produce.
01:27But Elisa, what I find difficult to understand is that the Americans and the Israelis have been calling on Iranians
01:34to come out to the streets.
01:35But, of course, these cities are still being bombed.
01:39As you heard a Nogar correspondent say earlier, there were reports, again, fuel depots have been targeted.
01:46If Iranians who are even against the regime are going to see this sort of thing happen, there's going to
01:51be a rally around the flag, won't they, even in the short term?
01:57Well, I think it's impossible to expect the Iranian population to come out under such expanded targeting throughout the country,
02:05including in urban areas.
02:07And unfortunately, I think it's the Iranian people who have been kind of relegated to the bottom of the priority
02:12list.
02:13As we've heard the Trump administration and the government in Israel articulate goals and objectives for this war over the
02:21last 18 days, the ability to enable the Iranian people has kind of fallen down the list.
02:29And so this idea that they could come out into the streets under these circumstances is quite naive.
02:35So now that Larajani has been taken out, this was the man who the United States would typically go to
02:41if Donald Trump was seeking an off-ramp.
02:45Now what happens?
02:49Well, it's true that Larajani certainly was a figure in the political elite who had relationships with and was willing
02:58to talk to those in the West, whether it be in Europe or in Washington over the years.
03:03It does create kind of a vacuum for those in the regime who have that experience and who would even
03:11consider approaching discussions in the West.
03:15So it really does limit the potential for off-ramps or exit ramps from the war through some kind of
03:22diplomatic negotiated process.
03:25Although there are still others in the regime who have some of that experience and you do still have figures
03:31like the president, like the foreign minister, who are still, at least for the moment, not on the target list.
03:40We'll have to wait and see how that changes.
03:42Not on the target list that we know of, but who knows, that may also change.
03:45But I wanted to ask you about the IRGC because the Israelis can try and knock off different members within
03:53the Islamic Republic, but the IRGC is a vast network.
03:57They have a lot of money.
03:59They have been smuggling.
04:01This structure is not going to crumble overnight, is it?
04:06No, it's not.
04:07I think that the way in which this campaign has been prosecuted from the air is to try and degrade
04:13the capabilities of the security establishment, targeting bases, targeting missile depots, targeting launches, targeting infrastructure, to try and choke off
04:24the kinds of levers that you just talked about.
04:27That does not occur overnight, but it is a slow erosion and degration of those capabilities.
04:33The director of national intelligence posted a statement on X saying that it's Donald Trump who determines what's an imminent
04:40threat and what isn't for the United States.
04:43Is Tulsi Gabbard essentially effectively washing her hands clean of this war?
04:50Well, I agree with that statement.
04:53I mean, at the end of the day, the commander in chief is responsible for sending U.S. forces into
04:58harm's way.
04:59The responsibility for this war rests with President Trump.
05:04And whether or not he took the counsel of either his director of national intelligence or anyone else is really
05:12is part of that equation.
05:14But at the end of the day, he's the one who makes the decision.
05:17Elisa, we're going to have to leave it there.
05:18Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
05:20Elisa Catalano, you were there.
Comments