00:00Now, President Donald Trump has plunged the United States into a war while he faces some of the lowest approval
00:07ratings of his political career.
00:09A recent poll showed that just one in four Americans approved of his attack on Iran, but it's just not
00:15public opinion that he's losing.
00:17The war is also beginning to show some cracks in his support from his diehard MAGA base.
00:23For more on this, we can bring in Clara Martinez-McCain, Professor of Political Science at the University of Buffalo.
00:29Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:31It's been five days now since Israel and the U.S. began strikes on Iran.
00:36Five days later, is there any clarity on what Donald Trump's war goals are?
00:43Yes, absolutely.
00:44I think at first it might have seemed confusing that Trump, when he was feeling insecure in the polls, would
00:52have launched an attack.
00:53But if we think about it, if domestically Trump is not doing well, the economy has some problems, he has
01:01midterm elections coming up and his party looks to lose some seats, the Epstein files are out.
01:07It does make sense for him to gamble on this international conflict, because if it goes well, if it indeed
01:13remains limited, this could be something that could give him a surge of support among his base.
01:20But Donald Trump was the president who recognized that the war in Iraq destabilized the region.
01:29I mean, we just look at statements coming in from Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
01:32They are threatening the complete destruction of the region's military and economic infrastructure.
01:37I mean, they have been targeting the broader GCC, not just Israel, but they're targeting the United Arab Emirates.
01:43They've been targeting Saudi Arabia.
01:46They've been targeting Kuwait.
01:47These are U.S. allies in the region.
01:51Absolutely.
01:52And I think we could see this expand.
01:55At the same time, we know that the Trump administration has de-emphasized relationships with allies.
02:03So I think that he sees this as potentially a victory for himself to overthrow the regime in Iran.
02:14But yes, it of course could affect allies very negatively.
02:18He just has de-emphasized relationships with allies a lot.
02:21But Donald Trump doesn't even know if it's going to last a couple of days, if it lasts four to
02:25five weeks.
02:26We don't know.
02:27And also, it seems that there are splits emerging over what he wants, because at one point, it seemed to
02:32suggest that he could be okay with a Venezuela-type situation with Adelsi Rodriguez,
02:38somebody down the line in Iran who would sort of agree to do the U.S.'s bidding.
02:44But then you have the Israelis on the other end who are saying, we're going to kill whoever they name.
02:50Absolutely.
02:51And I think we're seeing the issue here is that we're seeing somewhat of a confused message from the Trump
02:58administration.
02:59So on the one hand, the Department of Defense will say that they mostly have military objectives, you know, getting
03:07rid of Iran's nuclear program, their missile capacity, any ability to harm the U.S.
03:14But then you have the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, saying, well, we did this because we expected Israel to
03:21react.
03:22And we have Trump saying it's about regime change, and then DOD saying it's not about regime change.
03:29There seems to be somewhat of a confused message from the different parts.
03:36Trump also has said that there is this possibility that whoever takes over in Iran in the regime could be
03:43worse than the current regime.
03:45So I think that they understand that this could be a longer war, that it could be more complicated.
03:50And it is a huge gamble that they are taking, especially as you noted that they're given the fact that
03:57their MAGA base is cracking,
03:59because a lot of them are opposed to foreign interventions by the U.S.
04:02I want to talk about that. And you touched on this point that Marco Rubio said the U.S. essentially
04:07went in because they were notified that the Israelis were going to go alone
04:11and the U.S. preemptively targeted Iran, given that Iran would retaliate at U.S. bases in the region.
04:21How will that rationale sit with Trump's base?
04:24We're already questioning the role of Israel's intervention in American foreign policy.
04:32Yes, that was a very surprising statement from the Secretary of State, who you do believe speaks for the administration,
04:41because it shows it goes against Trump's message that he that the U.S. is the one that is dominating
04:48the strategy in this case.
04:50And instead, it's being essentially following the bidding of Israel in this case.
04:56Trump, of course, backtracked on that. But I do think that message did get out there.
05:01And for for the MAGA base who see, you know, again, this kind of America first, the United States should
05:09dominate policy.
05:10This could sit poorly among them.
05:13You said that things were not going well for Donald Trump domestically when we think of the Epstein files, when
05:19we think of the economy.
05:20But now we we don't know what's going to happen in the Middle East.
05:26What we do know for sure is that oil prices are going to go up in the run up to
05:31the midterms.
05:32If there is no quick fix, who knows how long this conflict could drag on for.
05:35So he's taken a very, very risky bet, hasn't he?
05:40Absolutely. But I do think it's what we call gambling for resurrection.
05:45If he sees the situation domestically bad enough that he would expect a loss in the midterm elections,
05:52in the congressional elections, to the point where his party could lose control of the Congress,
05:58which would limit his ability to carry out his preferred policies,
06:02then it's worth the gamble if he already expects it to be bad.
06:07But as you noted, the MAGA base, a lot of them are against international interventions.
06:14And it's not so much that they might switch over to the Democratic side,
06:18but that in the midterm elections, which historically always have lower turnout than the presidential elections,
06:23that some of them might just stay home and not vote.
06:26And again, that risks the Republican Party losing control of the Congress.
06:30And finally, what does it mean to you that his MAGA cheerleaders,
06:35if we think of Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, etc.,
06:38the fact that they have come out criticizing and questioning why the U.S. went into Iran,
06:46the fact that he seems to have lost his support from the get-go,
06:49that's going to make this an even tougher sell, won't it?
06:54Absolutely. And we're seeing, again, the fractures in the MAGA base.
06:58And again, it's a very polarized political environment right now.
07:03I, again, don't believe that any of these people are going to switch over to the Democrats,
07:07but it does mean that they'll be less willing to campaign for Trump-supported candidates during the elections.
07:17Again, that there might be lower turnout in the elections.
07:21And so this would mean that Trump, moving on, if he loses control of Congress,
07:26if the Republicans control the Congress, he would have much less ability to carry out policy,
07:32especially foreign policy, the war in the future, in the way that he wants to,
07:37without the full support of his MAGA base and of the Congress.
07:42Carla Martinez-McKinn, we're going to have to leave you there.
07:44Thank you for joining us on the program today.
Comments