00:00Everything seems to be pinned on the Strait of Homoz.
00:03It all seems to be about delivery.
00:06That's where the main problem happens.
00:08But it was also to remember that these big countries producing so much oil
00:12doesn't have the space to keep this oil either.
00:16They don't have the container availability.
00:19So if the war does end and we see it end when it ends or if it ends pretty quickly,
00:25you know, how quickly can oil reserves recover?
00:28Because I think this is the big question.
00:31You know, if we start releasing the glass of oil that's in reserve,
00:34how quickly can we get that back?
00:36Well, if the Iran war stops tomorrow, the global oil supplies would stabilize quite quickly.
00:43We're talking about days, maybe a few weeks.
00:47But to get the global inventory or reserves back replenished in terms of market terms,
00:56that would probably take months to do that.
01:00So basically, let's say the war finishes tomorrow.
01:04We'll have a few stages now.
01:06The first phase, which will be days, probably around days, maximum a week or so,
01:11this will be the stabilization phase.
01:14So because the markets react immediately, usually, to geopolitics,
01:19the tankers would resume probably normal routing around the Strait of Hormuz.
01:24The risk premiums and the insurance premiums are going to come down.
01:28So we are going to see probably the prices of oil drop quite sharply within the first 48 to 72
01:37hours,
01:37within the first two to three days.
01:39But because the global stocks are still tight and depleted,
01:43then we move to the second phase, which is between one, two, three months.
01:49This will be the rebuilding of inventory phase.
01:53What happens is usually refiners and traders start restocking,
01:57but they do it slowly so that they do not drive the demand up
02:01and therefore drive the price up again.
02:04But they definitely, all the countries you're talking about,
02:08especially the countries, the biggest consumers of oil, like the United States,
02:12they need to start stocking up, but they have to do it slowly.
02:17If we do a historical comparison, like after the Gulf Wars,
02:23after Libya 2011, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022,
02:27it usually took between two to four months to restock global inventory or global reserves of oil.
02:37And then you have the third phase, which is after three to nine months of the end of the war,
02:42that would be the global normalization,
02:44where all the countries will restock their reserves.
02:51They would do it slowly, but they would reach the target, basically,
02:54the full restocking by probably three to nine months after the war.
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