00:00But normally about 120 ships pass through the Straits of Hormuz daily.
00:05Traffic has dropped by around 94% since the start of this war in Iran.
00:11How might continued disruptions in the strait influence the short-term volatility in oil?
00:18And of course, the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil checkpoints globally.
00:22As you said, there's around 20% of the supply passes through it.
00:27So even a partial disruption creates an instant risk premium.
00:32What matters now here is that not actual shortage yet, but it's fear of disruption.
00:39We're still seeing a little bit of recovery today.
00:42At least that was the highest number of tankers went through, which is about eight.
00:47Four of them were oil tanker.
00:49And oil prices don't also wait for confirmation.
00:51They move on risk.
00:54So in the short term, you get sharp spikes on escalation headlines, followed by, again, quick pullbacks on any sign
01:01of stability.
01:03Oil is now trading geopolitics, not fundamentals.
01:06And that means basically volatility is here to stay and will remain elevated until we see something consistent when it
01:13comes to at least a policy, when this war is going to end or not.
01:17We'll see you here.
01:19We'll see you here.
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