00:00If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for 60 days, what does that look like for the U.S. and
00:05for Europe?
00:05A crisis anywhere is a crisis everywhere.
00:09The price is going to go up for everyone.
00:12The oil market is not really thinking about 60 days.
00:14I think it's thinking more than about six days at the moment.
00:17It will mean a significant oil shock.
00:19People say, oh, worst-case scenario is $100 oil.
00:23But a truly worst-case scenario, what I would call a really worst-case scenario,
00:27I think that we go north of $200, we will need massive demand destruction.
00:32It will imply an economic shock of the size that the central banks will have to intervene, etc.
00:39It's very ugly.
00:41But that's one of the reasons that I cannot see this lasting 60 days.
00:46I think that the White House will call it over a lot earlier.
00:51There is a lot of cynicism on Wall Street, and they say, oh, that will be taco.
00:54So, you know, I think taco is out the window here.
01:00I mean, taco was, he doesn't, you know, he doesn't knock out the Supreme Leader.
01:04That was kind of where we were nine months ago.
01:06You know, having achieved killing the Supreme Leader,
01:09I think that President Trump can turn around and say, I'm done any day,
01:13and I still claim that he achieved a lot.
01:15Again, we can't just question whether killing the Supreme Leader
01:18actually brings us closer to have a prosperous, democratic, and stable Iran,
01:23which I don't think it does.
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