00:00Let's just start with where things are in the region right now. The MOU that was signed over three weeks
00:05ago at this point has all but collapsed. First of all, is that a fair assessment? And then second of
00:10all, we're also nearing the August deadline for those negotiations that are seemingly not happening. So where does this whole
00:17thing leave us when it comes to the technical talks?
00:22Good morning. You're certainly correct that what we are witnessing right now is the slow collapse of the memorandum of
00:29understanding between the United States and Iran, and that the longer that this process persists, the less likely it is
00:36that we're going to see a major diplomatic breakthrough before the MOU formally expires on the 20th of August.
00:43Right now, what we're also seeing is, of course, the United States and Iran engaging in increasingly escalatory exchanges of
00:51fire, with the attacks that we're seeing in the Middle East becoming intense day by day.
00:57These are also paired with threats by U.S. President Donald Trump, indicating that the U.S. will soon begin
01:02striking energy infrastructure or bridges within Iran, and that is extremely concerning from a regional stability point of view.
01:09But at the same time, it is notable that we've already seen those claims and threats from the United States
01:15before.
01:16It doesn't guarantee that they're going to happen, and it's likely a negotiating tactic at this point to try and
01:21trigger a breakthrough.
01:24Megan, I was taking a look at some of the notes that you had earlier, and you mentioned that it
01:29is unlikely for Israel, which is a third party in all of this that led the initial attacks with the
01:36U.S. on Iran,
01:37that it is unlikely for Israel to get involved for the time being.
01:42Do you think that the elections, the upcoming elections there, have a part to play in this?
01:46And what are the other reasons you don't think Israel, that was up until a few weeks ago a major
01:52player in all of this, not getting involved?
01:56You're absolutely correct that Israel was an integral part of the initial war campaign that the United States launched on
02:03the 28th of February.
02:05And it has also been a part of the ceasefire process, given its adherence to the ceasefire when it first
02:12came into force in mid-April.
02:14At the moment, of course, the election that is going to be upcoming within Israel, and that will have to
02:19happen before the 28th of October, is going to be weighing on the national calculus.
02:24But generally speaking, when it comes to national security, at this point in time, Israel is highly aware of just
02:30how delicate and changeable the relationship is with the United States.
02:34That's something that's true for all regional parties.
02:36And so going forward into the next few months, it's unlikely that we're going to see Israel acting unilaterally when
02:43it comes to Iran.
02:44Though, of course, there are other factors that could push us closer to an Israeli intervention, such as the relaunch
02:49of major combat operations on the part of the United States, which could well draw in Israel as a cooperating
02:55party or as an ally.
02:59And, Megan, we're also seeing a parallel thing at play here between Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia, a flare-up
03:05yet again.
03:06So perhaps this is an existential question at this point.
03:09But what would it take at this point to bring this much-needed stability to the region?
03:18Well, I think that if I had the answer to that question, I'd be in a slightly different job than
03:22I currently am.
03:23However, when it comes to what is going to be needed for a breakthrough here, of course, many have noted
03:29that it is incredibly easy to start wars, but it is incredibly challenging to finish them.
03:34And every war that has finished in the past has either occurred through a victory or through some kind of
03:39mediated settlement and negotiation.
03:42It's clearly demonstrated in this situation that the United States has been unable to entirely best Iran and claim victory
03:49or topple the regime within Tehran.
03:52And the same can be said when it comes to the Houthis in Yemen and various other Iranian proxies that
03:58are active throughout the region.
03:59So in absence of a clear victory of an absolute imbalance of power that facilitates the rooting of an adversary,
04:06the other option, of course, is going to be negotiations.
04:09And it's only in those situations that we're likely to see a breakthrough.
04:12That's not to say that that process would be simple.
04:15Of course, when it comes to Yemen, this is a conflict that has gone on for over 15 years.
04:20However, it is one of the ways that we'll be going forward.
04:23It's something we've seen Saudi Arabia pursuing over the past few years and likely something that we're going to continue
04:28seeing Saudi pursue as well as other parties in the region at this point in time.
04:34And just finally, President Trump also met with Iraqi Prime Minister, the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaydi, yesterday
04:41with the U.S. pledging to leave Iraq.
04:44Quite a monumental development there.
04:46How significant is that development in the midst of everything that's happening in the Middle East?
04:52It is significant in the context of both Iraqi politics and, of course, the regional developments that we've seen over
04:58the past few months.
05:00Currently, the U.S. is engaged in a broader drawdown of its troops from Iraq.
05:04And this was something that began in September of 2025.
05:08And, of course, U.S. troop deployments into Iraq are far lower than they were 10 years ago, for example.
05:14Last year, at the beginning of the drawdown, there were only 2,500 U.S. service personnel stationed within Iraq.
05:20And what we saw being announced in the meeting yesterday was a clarification on timelines that essentially the U.S.
05:26will complete this drawdown by September.
05:28In the context of Iraqi politics, of course, that presents many, many concerns.
05:33When we're looking at the global anti-ISIS coalition that is still operating within Iraq and within Syria, as well
05:39as the broader tensions between the United States and Iranian-backed proxies in the region.
05:44That's something that's going to continue to be an issue, but the drawdown will likely continue.
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