00:00President Trump's been very clear from the beginning, this is not going to be done,
00:03any of this, with boots on the ground. Is that realistic? Can he achieve what he says he wants
00:10to achieve, which, you know, does change a little bit. It's not necessarily wholesale regime change
00:16anymore. It's perhaps modifying or working with elements of the regime. But do you think he can
00:21achieve what he wants to do without deploying boots on the ground? Well, I think we have to
00:25recognize, I think, how fragile Iran was before the start of this most recent war. It was
00:33significantly weakened, of course, by the 12-day war, which Israel attacked Iran, and also by the
00:41significant attack on the nuclear facilities by the United States. I think it basically weakened not
00:47just the military capacity of the state, but also the authority of the Islamic Republic as well, to
00:53tell you the truth, amongst its people. And of course, we saw that there was serious unrest. I
00:58think those tensions still exist. We know the low levels of poverty amongst quite a lot of the
01:04population. It's a very young population, of course. And I think what it turns on, to tell you the truth,
01:11Tom, is whether those elements, along with the army, turn on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
01:17In a sense, you know, if you manage to do that, you have got troops on the ground. I think
01:22everybody
01:22remembers what 1979 was like. So I think a lot of people in Iran are very nervous of destabilizing
01:29the regime just to have anarchy. And one of the things I think we need to worry about is what
01:34I
01:34would call warlordism in Iran. Everybody breaks down into power structures, and you get a situation
01:40very much like Libya once the Gaddafi regime collapse. I think the biggest weakness for really
01:48what President Trump is trying to achieve is what comes afterwards. There doesn't seem to be any
01:52sort of vision about who takes charge, how they're going to support any new regime, how there's going
01:58to be a transition. And as I said, I think the one thing the Iranian people fear more than anything
02:03else is anarchy and the sort of mass murder that occurred in the wake of the 1979 revolution.
02:10you
02:11you
02:13you
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