00:00I'm a Joe Fortenbaugh guy. He's a nice add to their fantasy focus show on Sunday mornings and he
00:08he knows the betting space. Sam Panajatovic. Sam, are you a Joe Fortenbaugh guy?
00:14Oh yeah, Joey and I go way back, back when you couldn't talk betting on the radio. We had to
00:18talk in alleys and circles like that. You know, we used to text back in 2016 before this whole
00:24thing got started. I like him. By the way, before we get into it, the Bills also have announced the
00:30release of Dane Jackson. So Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson and Taylor Rapp all from the secondary
00:35and Curtis Samuel as well. Talk to Sal next hour about all of that. They bring in DJ Moore. What's
00:42your take, Sam? I mean, you always have Bears takes too. It's interesting from both sides.
00:47Well, the best availability is being available, right? And he's played 17 games in five straight
00:53years. So that's, that's something that's certainly a nice shot in the arm for a Bill's
01:00wide receiver room that has had some injuries to deal with to say the least. And look, is he a
01:05legit number one? I don't, I don't know. I would say he's probably a two on a really, really good
01:11team. He's a one on a bad team or an average team. And the Bears sort of were supposed to
01:16be average
01:16this year. The win total was eight and a half and they definitely overshot that, but he's a really
01:20nice player. He'll catch, you know, about a hundred passes in this offense that likes to
01:26spread the ball around. He's good for about six, seven touchdowns a year. And as I said,
01:31he's going to play, you know, he's going to play most of the games. He's been on the field
01:36very, very much 17 games the last five years. So being durable and available is sometimes more
01:41than half the battle. Can you speak to what his reputation was in Chicago? I know you're not there
01:47living there anymore, but you guys, you guys talk about the bears a lot. And Joe is there,
01:52Joe Ostrowski. Um, and Moore was there for a few years. He put up a really nice season with Justin
01:57Fields, by the way. And then last year there were some moments, but you saw other players move in
02:04and his numbers came down. And also there were a couple of things where people raised their eyebrows
02:10about like his, his effort level. Um, do you, do you know what his reputation was in Chicago?
02:15By all accounts, he was a great teammate from the get-go, but frustration certainly mounted
02:20at the end. And you look at his targets. Uh, so three years in Chicago, year one, he gets 136
02:26targets, as you mentioned with fields. The next year, he had more targets. He had 140 last year,
02:3285 targets. I mean, that's it. He wasn't getting the ball. So that would make anybody go insane when
02:39you're, when you're paid the way you're supposed to be. And you believe that you're a number one
02:44receiver, but you're, you're being out received by a rookie Colston Loveland. I think that was it
02:49by all accounts, a good teammate. And remember he was there on a very bad bears team in 2023. And,
02:55and he was a very, very good teammate. The coaches liked them. The players liked them.
02:59I think last year was just sort of a frustrated year because as Caleb Williams ascended,
03:04it was more Colston Loveland and Roma Dunze and Luther Burden and Zaccheaus. Like these guys were,
03:11were out targeting DJ more, um, as a bears guy, I'm, I'm happy. They're not going to have to pay
03:18him a hundred million dollars for the next four years. That's a Buffalo problem, at least at this
03:22point. But, um, I think last year, you can just strike it up to him being frustrated, uh, not getting
03:27the ball enough. And that's what receivers want receivers want the ball. He didn't get the ball.
03:32He was upset. And we'll see what happens here. Like, right. Uh, the bills have been a frustrating
03:39team in that area as much winning as they've done. Um, as you know, I'm a fantasy player and I'd
03:45never
03:45want to start any bill other than cook, I suppose, or Alan, obviously, but who are you supposed to go
03:51with? Khalil Shakir is a nice player, but he's not like fantasy. Nice. Really. It's just, it's the
03:56floor kind of. And so one we'll find, we'll find out if DJ more gets the ball, as you put
04:03it, uh,
04:04sufficiently here. If, if he doesn't, they shouldn't have made this trade, Sam. Well,
04:09let me ask you, because you're a big fantasy guy and you put numbers on things rather than
04:13reputation. Where would you be looking to draft DJ more in fantasy? What round? I think maybe fourth.
04:22Really? You think higher? No, I was going to say lower. I thought fifth or sixth. Okay. I think that's
04:27fine. I have not wanted to draft DJ more over the years. Really? Right. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.
04:33By last year, I was off DJ more because of, um, you know, burden and Loveland and Odunze. I liked
04:41Odunze a lot last year. Actually, I'm looking up, trying to find his ADP real quick on, uh, underdog.
04:47And this is, you know, you come to me, you want me to know these kinds of answers, right? Like
04:51this
04:51is, Oh, I'm, I'm way, way off. ADP is 82. So late sixth or seventh, even for DJ more wide
05:01receiver,
05:02or 40 that'll change with the trade. I mean, that is mostly built from before he was traded
05:08to the bills. I think it's a win for him in fantasy going to the bills. Yeah, I would think
05:13so too. And look in his prime and he's still in his prime because he's going to be 29 years
05:18old next year in his prime. You can, you can chalk him up for about a thousand yards and
05:23I think six or seven touchdowns. Now the question is, what do you do in the playoffs? As every
05:28conversation revolves around Buffalo, what do you do in the playoffs? He has not been
05:33a playoff performer. Um, he had that huge catch, um, against the Packers. That was in
05:38a regular season game in December. We all remember that 50 yard laser from Caleb to DJ
05:42Moore, but then he sort of led up on his route on the final play against the Rams. So, um,
05:48you know, we'll see. I would think he would be reinvigorated with a new team as he was when
05:53he got to Chicago. Um, but he's a nice player. He's a good teammate. Just get him the ball
05:58and then he won't turn on you. The game winner in the green Bay playoff win too. Uh, but you
06:03know, not huge games, but you're right. The Rams play was like right away. What's he doing
06:08on this play? Collinsworth was right on that. Now I'm feeling taken aback by my bad guess
06:15at his draft position, but it is going to move way up. Like he's going after Michael Wilson
06:20and Ricky Pearsall. Like he is not going to end up lower than those guys. Once the market
06:26corrects now that they know he's on, on the bills and they're number one, one more on DJ
06:31Moore, Sam. So I saw a draft Kings prop around 750 yards. Tell me about those because who
06:42knows that who's going to play 17 games, who knows who's going to miss time. How are those
06:46numbers constructed by the books based on, you know, what he did last year and over the course
06:52of his career? How did they, how did they get to seven 50? Well, they certainly don't look at his
06:56career average, which is over a thousand. Um, they look a lot at what he did last year. So his,
07:04his receiving number last year was six 82, uh, his final yardage in the regular season. And that's
07:0917 games. So I, obviously they're, they're shading a little bit upward off of that six 82 number, but
07:16I think it's tough. You know, I think the books have, have really learned that, you know, you can't
07:23make these numbers high enough because most people, believe it or not, Mike, they like to bet overs on
07:28players and they're like the parlay overs. But the reality is, you know, a lot of guys, they don't,
07:32they don't make it 17 games. So I think it's as simple as looking at what he did last year.
07:39Sort of being in the ballpark off that six 82 number and just expecting that maybe he's going
07:44to miss a game or two and he's going to be right around 700, but that will be a player.
07:49I will
07:49assure you of this. We talk about this on March 6th. Um, that number is going to be higher by
07:55August
07:56or September, right? You're going to start seeing him in the summer and you know, he's going to have
08:01a good rapport with Josh Allen and Josh is going to say all the good things and DJ is going
08:05to be happy
08:06and that's going to get bet up. So, uh, my advice on anything DJ more related would be bet the
08:10overs
08:11early. And if you're going to look to bet an under, I would bet it right before week one,
08:15when it's probably closer to about 800. Oh, I'm glad to hear that. Cause I love betting unders on
08:19those last year. I got away with one with on kind of a big bet on Kyron Williams of the
08:25Rams under 10
08:26and a half rushing touchdowns. He had 10, he didn't miss a game. I got away with it, but just
08:31like,
08:32I see a number like that. I'm like, Oh, just one injury, Blake Corum, something else they're
08:37throwing. I just, it seemed like too big of a number. And I, I guess I was right, but I
08:42don't
08:42really deserve that much credit winning by a half, half a touchdown. Does it, does this trade
08:48and maybe what it represents, Sam, do anything for you in terms of the bills and the futures?
08:53No, it won't move much. I mean, you know, I hate to put this little respect on a player,
08:59but a wide receiver like DJ Moore is probably worth a point to the line. Maybe, you know,
09:05like if DJ's out there and the bills are favored by four DJ rolls an ankle and warmups and doesn't
09:11play that line goes to three and a half, maybe. I mean, it doesn't go to three. Um, and that's
09:16obviously, you know, that's a very key number, three, seven, things like that. But if the bills
09:21were favored by nine and DJ Moore gets surprisingly ruled out, that number is going to get back to
09:25eight and a half eight. So that's what he's worth. It did nothing, uh, to the division number. It did
09:31nothing to the wind total. Um, I'm minimizing his role, but, uh, in the eyes of Vegas, he's,
09:37he's really not worth that much to the point spread or the future market. Um, I did though,
09:42before we, um, before we get too excited here and hang up, I see, I see Lindy got some help.
09:48He's
09:48even money, Mike, to win the Jack Adams, even money. It's that good. Yeah. We had, I was about to
09:54ask
09:55you. That was my last thing here was how does that look? I saw somewhere that he's the favorite
10:00and it's his lead has increased. Oh yeah. So he's plus a hundred even money and, uh, John Cooper
10:07two to one, but I mean, good grief. Like what more does the guy have to do? They have the
10:12same
10:12amount of points as Tampa Bay. I know they have two games in hand, but I mean, come on, nobody
10:18saw
10:18this coming. Uh, well, we kind of did you and I, we have this bet and so does we're all
10:24in on this
10:24bet through you on Lindy when it was, I don't remember what the price was. You'll, you'll have
10:29it there maybe. But what I said about it was they're going to play Tampa Bay four times
10:35and they might need to catch them. They might need to play them even or do something to take
10:40the spotlight on the career achievement. You know, the lifetime achievement award for Cooper
10:45and also Canada did not win gold. He was the coach for team Canada. They did not win gold.
10:51So I don't know the Sabres, Sam, they're 26, five and two in their last 33 games. They
10:56have caught Tampa who they play again on Sunday. They split the two games that they've played
11:01already with the lightning. So yeah, maybe whoever wins the division, their coach wins that award.
11:08I mean, when I say nobody saw this coming, I meant more so before the season. Oh yeah.
11:13We saw the Sabres and the lightning jockeying for first place in the division. Not I, not I,
11:20I can't find the slip. We have like six or seven to one on Lindy. Yeah. And we did that
11:26one like
11:26six weeks ago or so. So it's really, it's a two horse race now. Lindy, even money Cooper,
11:31two to one, then Bednar in Colorado is 10 to one. So it will come down to the head coach
11:35of Buffalo
11:36or the head coach of Tampa Bay. And I can't wait. Big game on Sunday, I guess. And then let's
11:43get it
11:43done. Let's let's cash a ticket. It'd be nice to cash a Buffalo ticket. Wouldn't it?
11:46Yeah. I'm thinking of it today, knowing that I'm going to talk to you and like,
11:51there was another one that we bet, but that was the Superbowl MVP. So I guess I can cross that
11:55one off at this point. We did not get home on Nick Emanwari. Unfortunately, Sam, thanks for your
12:01time today. Thanks for being flexible with me. We'll talk next week. You got it. See you, Mike.
12:06Sam Paniotovic, chicken dinner with Joe Ostrowski. Check that out on YouTube.
12:10You got it. See you.
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