- 20 hours ago
The current geopolitical tensions may not last very long, as many countries involved in the conflict could face serious economic damage if the situation escalates further, says expert.
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00:10Hello and welcome here with us here on Business Today.
00:12Let's take a look at the headlines from the markets, business and corporate world at Dessa.
00:18Russian oil cargoes increasingly heading towards India after the US issued a temporary license allowing purchases.
00:24Bloomberg reports over 15 million barrels of crude are now floating near Indian waters with nearly 18 tankers signaling Indian
00:33ports, offering quick supply relief amid Middle East disruptions.
00:42Amid the escalating West Asia crisis, the government has asked refiners to maximize LPG production using propane and butane streams.
00:51The Petroleum Ministry has directed supply to IOC, HPCL and BPCL and asked companies to prioritize domestic LPG consumers over
00:59petrochemical use.
01:04Markets slipped amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
01:07Sensex fell nearly 1,000 points to around 79,000, Nifty dropping about 270 points to hover around 24,500.
01:16Banking, financial services, real estate stocks leading the decline as investors turn cautious.
01:24Mukesh Ambani's mega IPO plan for geo-platforms may face delays as the government is yet to notify new listing
01:31rules cleared by the regulator.
01:33Reliance is awaiting the final nod to appoint bankers and file draft papers for what could be India's biggest ever
01:40IPO.
01:40That's according to Bloomberg.
01:46No China style mistake with India, a big statement by the US as the two countries near a trade deal
01:52says will not allow India to beat it on commercial aspects, stresses on reciprocity with India.
02:03Breaking news also coming in on your screen from Gujarat.
02:06According to a report by news agency Informus, Tata Motors' Sanand Plant may have to cut car production by 50
02:12% after Gujarat gas has reduced supply to the unit.
02:15The gas used in painting operations is critical and officials say that two of the four production lines could be
02:21impacted, affecting models like Tigger, Tiago, Nexon and Sierra.
02:25That's the breaking news coming in. Tata Motors' Sanand Plant may drop output by 50% as Gujarat gas has
02:33cut supply to the unit, according to the Informus.
02:36Tata Motors' paint lines have been hit by gas shortage and the Sanand Plant could shut two out of four
02:42production lines.
02:43This is a direct impact of the war in Iran on Tata car production.
02:50All right, joining us this afternoon, Mr. Chokalingam with us.
02:54Mr. Chokalingam, markets right now are nose diving.
02:56We've seen one of the worst week for banking and financials in particular.
03:02I want to get your perspective first.
03:03You know, in the morning we thought perhaps markets were stabilizing at these levels, but the cuts are deep.
03:10Yeah, so, you know, you know, the problem is, you know, the rising oil prices, but I still believe it
03:20is too early to panic.
03:21Yes, it's a painful, we already give up the pain, but whether one has to panic and sell out the
03:27stock, I would still wait for that.
03:31Only if oil crosses, Brent oil crosses, $100 moves close to $120, then it will be like a crazy situation
03:36for Indian economy market.
03:39I believe there are two possibilities.
03:41Within a month or so, there can be a compromise solution because all the participants of this war, direct and
03:48indirect, are likely to be affected.
03:50And, you know, the U.S. allies in the UAE, Qatar and other places, I don't think they can afford
03:57a very large scale, you know, war and death of their citizens considering the economic status of those countries.
04:04Similarly, Enon itself would be in a difficult condition because its export of oil accounts for 83% of the
04:11total earning, export earning.
04:13And 90% of the oil flows through straight-up armours.
04:17So, I would still suggest, you know, wait on the sideline for a few more weeks before we press the
04:24panic button.
04:26Okay, so wait before getting too panicked about it.
04:30That's the view from Mr. Chokalingam.
04:32Mr. Chokalingam, however, strategy-wise, would you sit out at the moment and look at what's happening in the banking
04:37and financial space?
04:38What would be your strategy at the moment?
04:40I would not sell off in banking because that is one industry which is giving a lot of confidence.
04:47Whether you take a business growth, credit growth, it has again come back to 13-14%, which went down to
04:54near 10%, even below 10%.
04:56So, quality of assets are at a record level.
04:59In fact, the transmission of rate cut is also happening, both in terms of deposit rates and in terms of
05:04the lending rates.
05:05Even this morning, there are very interesting insights about, you know, the lending above 9%.
05:10That segment share is going down substantially.
05:14Similar thing happened in transmission of low interest rate on deposit as well.
05:18So, I would hold on to particularly the public sector banks.
05:22I would rather suggest buying.
05:26My risk to my view is only if oil, as I mentioned earlier, goes to $120 per barrel.
05:32But as long as oil is below, you know, $90, $100, I would continue to buy, you know, quality PSU
05:40banking stocks.
05:42All right.
05:44India may be getting some relief on crude oil supplies after U.S. government has issued a temporary waiver allowing
05:50purchases of Russian oil for 30 days.
05:52According to reports, several tankers carrying Russian crude have already begun sailing towards Indian ports with over 15 million barrels
05:59of oil.
06:00And these were currently headed towards East Asia but were also impacted by U.S. sanctions.
06:04However, a new challenge is emerging on the LPG front with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting tanker
06:11traffic.
06:12The government has asked refiners to maximize LPG production and prioritize supplies to state-run fuel retailers to ensure adequate
06:19availability for households.
06:21Nearly 90% of India's LPG imports are from the Gulf.
06:24And unlike crude oil, India does not have viable alternatives for LPG.
06:28For more on this, let's go across to Aishwarya Patil.
06:30Aishwarya, take us through, you know, with Russian oil tankers now heading to India, how much relief will this offer
06:36for crude supplies?
06:43Well, that was a concern as to what exactly is our crude supply and energy security.
06:50And the Minister, Union Minister for Oil, Hardeep Singh Puri, did mention that we have 50 days of supply so
06:58far.
06:58As far as this particular report is concerned, agencies like Kepler have been tracking that continuously.
07:05And in fact, it says that about 18 vessels carrying Russian urals are now indicating that they will be heading
07:11towards India this week.
07:13All in all, they will be carrying about 15 million barrels of Russian oil.
07:18So, the oil is floating in the areas of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
07:24And it is at our disposal if we do need it is what this indicates at this point.
07:31And apart from that, yesterday as well, we saw that three of the vessels were headed towards the Indian shores
07:39as well.
07:40So, this seems like good news for India as far as our energy security is concerned, for petroleum and diesel,
07:48etc.
07:48And for the civic use as well.
07:51So, all in all, refiners may be a little less worried now that we have these many options available to
07:58us.
07:59Okay. And with LPG supplies, you know, at risk, what steps is the government taking?
08:04And how could this impact the common man as well?
08:07Because we might see, you know, an impact on supplies, on prices.
08:15Right. So, on the LPG side, also LPG and both LNG, the government had said that we are at a
08:21comfortable position
08:22and we will be looking at diversified suppliers across the globe.
08:27But as of now, what the government has told refiners, it has, in fact, passed an order to maximize their
08:35LPG production.
08:36And oil marketing companies like Indian Oil Corporation, BPCL, HPCL have been asked to prioritize this supply for domestic usage
08:46first and foremost.
08:47And this should be marked solely to the consumers like you and I.
08:52So, as far as the concern of your cooking gas is concerned, that has been put to rest as far
08:59as the government's policy on this is concerned.
09:01An order has been passed and that should also be resolved apart from the 50-day of supply that we
09:07already have of overall crude, petroleum and gas as well.
09:12So, that's the update so far as the West Asia war is still ongoing and a lot of concerns are
09:20still looming.
09:22All right, Aishwarya. Thanks for joining us with that.
09:24Shailendra Bhatnagar, also with us.
09:26Shail, good afternoon.
09:28Not looking pretty right now, Shail.
09:302.4.4 on the index, 2.4.439 to be precise.
09:37What's it looking like on the charts?
09:38What are the technical indicators telling us?
09:40What's the support level we're looking for?
09:42Well, Abha, as you very rightly say, it's not looking pretty at all.
09:46700, 750 points down on the Nifty for this week and about 2,400 points down on the Bank Nifty,
09:55down about 4.5% this week.
09:58Crude is now at 83.36.
10:02This is the highest we are seeing since July 2025.
10:05So, it's pain all around, except for a very few pockets, which is defence.
10:11Look at BEL, BDL, the three shipbuilders.
10:15They are doing very, very well because of this crisis in West Asia, whether it's sentimental or actual, only time
10:21will tell.
10:22Some parts of the manufacturing space are doing pretty well.
10:27Look at ABB, look at Power India, look at those spaces.
10:32Some parts of metals is doing pretty well.
10:34But it's really, really bad, Abha, when you look at the broader markets.
10:39It is pretty bad.
10:40Energy, defence and some part of metals in good shape, but rest of the market is really bleeding.
10:49But, you know, let's talk about that a little bit because the investors are, you know, pretty much suffering right
10:55now
10:55and they don't really know what to do at a time like this.
10:59They're watching, you know, their wealth just completely being eroded as we speak.
11:04So, in terms of, you know, really just how they should hang in there, should they be just holding their
11:12horses right now, Shail?
11:13How likely are they to recover their money and what kind of time?
11:16I know we don't have the answers, but these are the questions that retail investors are asking right now.
11:21Absolutely.
11:22So, let me just take it in two or three formats.
11:25So, if you are a mutual fund investor, please continue with your SIPs.
11:30Don't stop them in flexi caps, in mid caps and small caps and multi cap funds.
11:36And just wait for this pain to get over.
11:40It will.
11:41The government of India, as you very rightly pointed out in the last five minutes,
11:45they've taken steps to ameliorate the crude oil supply and the LPG thing.
11:49So, no prices are rising in India.
11:52That can be very well said.
11:55Please continue with your SIPs.
11:57Now, if you're a new person, you're very lucky.
11:59You're going to buy a market at a discount.
12:02So, go with a multi cap fund and buy that in piecemeal.
12:08Don't make a lump sum investment, but look at it for the next two or three weeks.
12:13Buy a good multi cap fund.
12:14If you really want to play the market sensibly, then possibly pharma, banks on the PSU side and, of course,
12:26the manufacturing space,
12:28including counters like Blue Star and Volta's, they should do well because of the incoming summer.
12:34Again, please speak to your financial advisor, your technical advisor before following this.
12:39But watch television for the cricket match, not for the action in West Asia.
12:47Be happy and this too shall pass up.
13:19All right.
13:20Is this the right time perhaps to buy at some of these lower levels or is there just too much
13:25pain all around?
13:27Well, tactically, yes, for short-term opportunities because historically, when summer comes, these kind of stocks rally 5-10%
13:34and tactically one can.
13:37Otherwise, also one can focus on, you know, stocks like Agri theme, hospital sector, PSU banks and also defense.
13:47These are the four areas where our dependence on external market is negligible and basically all these themes are based
13:55on the domestic demand demand demand.
13:57Why I am still not panicking and I keep advocating measured buying is that in the last 30 years, we
14:04have seen so many conflicts and markets have successfully lived through all those conflicts.
14:10Now, the latest conflict is in Ukraine, now this is the fifth year we are seeing the war still market
14:14across the world, we have seen the record eyes also.
14:18Like Shail said, I also believe this also will pass by.
14:22Perhaps for risk-taking investors, this could be a great opportunity to do invest in a phased manner over the
14:29next few weeks.
14:33All right.
14:34PSU banks just remaining on everyone's radar there, even with the knock.
14:37I mean, it's struggling, where else in the markets do you feel perhaps investors are using the opportunity to profit
14:44book, where the market is perhaps realigning valuations?
14:48Look at the way real estate is crumbling today, for instance.
14:51You know, where do you feel perhaps we've seen some amount of realignment taking place and valuations are now looking
14:56attractive?
14:57Yeah.
14:58So, profit booking is there for long-term investors.
15:01But those who invested fresh money, after September 24, I mean, 8 out of 10 stocks are not in profit.
15:09They are in deep red because we saw the record high level in September 24.
15:14That was the time overall market cap hit 485 lakh crore.
15:17As we are discussing now, the market has lost about 50 lakh crore from that level adjusted for recent IPOs.
15:25So, 8 out of 10 stocks are in red.
15:27So, basically, what we have been advocating, what we hear from the investors is that tilting towards Nifty Sensex stocks
15:35to the extent of 50% of the portfolio
15:37because DIAs would continue to support the Nifty Sensex stocks and they also become more dominant than the FIIs in
15:44terms of share of the equity stake in the Indian market.
15:48And, second, as I mentioned, a lot of investors are moving towards domestic demand driven.
15:53And be cautious on, you know, the technology stocks, not because of the war, but it looks like AI, you
16:01know, it might pull down the growth.
16:05Already, technology stocks were growing in poor 2% to 4% single digit in terms of dollar revenue.
16:12But now, it looks like even that 2% to 4% growth will be washed away because of AI
16:17threat.
16:18So, that is where the caution is, you know, applied and people are really aligned.
16:23So, these are the, you know, 3-4 strategies we also advocate and we also hear from the investors that
16:28this is what they also like.
16:29And, lastly, the POC banks, as I said, most banks have been trading at around 1.1 time or 1
16:36time price to adjust at book value.
16:38So, once the war ends, I think some of the quality POC banks will rally because they are sitting on
16:44a record high level of quality of assets.
16:47And the net NP, this business growth also continue to be in a strong double digit.
16:53Okay.
16:54Now, the Indian stock markets have already accounted for risks emanating from Iran.
16:58That's according to Ramdeo Agarwal speaking on the sidelines of the business today golf finale in Mumbai.
17:03He also has this advice for retail investors in these rough times.
17:07Listen in.
17:11Unless something horribly goes wrong, it is very tough to push the market again lower than whatever it traded in.
17:18It looks very bad that things are, the fight is on, but markets are moving up.
17:24But markets are very selfless, very emotionless, and it's only about economic engine.
17:28So, have they moved on from Iran already?
17:31I mean, for whatever we know, it has.
17:36What about, sir, the retail investor's strategy at this point in time?
17:39Since you're saying markets have just completely traded on this war at this point in time, what should they do?
17:43So, it's actually retail investor.
17:45Forget about retail investor.
17:46Investor's job is to stand by its own convictions in good time as well as bad time.
17:53Good time, everybody stands by.
17:54But bad time, these are challenging times when you have to bring patience to work and don't bother too much
17:59about, and luckily, Indian economy is not directly hit.
18:03Indirectly through the fuel for petrol and a little inflationary.
18:08Yes, but it's temporary, maybe a month or so.
18:10But on the whole, Indian economy is in a fine shape, fantastic shape.
18:15You just saw Q3 numbers, 7.8%, and it's surging.
18:19It's picking up steam.
18:20So, I would think that we are in good shape, broadly, not that much impacted.
18:25Yes, there will be some marginal impact.
18:28So, I would think that this is a time to bring patience.
18:31And, see, corrected market is the best time to start investing.
18:35It's a boom to the investor rather than, you know, kind of a challenge.
18:40Okay, it's lots of concerns for retail investors.
18:43Shell, coming back to markets and, you know, what else we're tracking today.
18:47Any other, you know, particular stocks or themes that you want to highlight as we head towards closing?
18:53Yes, Abha, I'd like to point out the winners this week as far as the Nifty is concerned.
19:00Of course, the energy space is doing very, very well.
19:02But look at how the market is understanding this crisis and no better flow than the money flow to track
19:12that.
19:13So, BEL is the biggest winner on the Nifty, up 5% in the past week.
19:18Look at metals, Hendalko, 3.5% higher in the past five sessions.
19:23Look at how the market is getting defensive.
19:25Sun Pharma, India's biggest drugs maker, is up 3.5%.
19:30Coal India, Dr. Reddy's, and, of course, IT.
19:34Infosys is amongst the gainers.
19:36And the entire cacophony of refinery stocks, MRPL, Chennai Petro, Reliance in particular.
19:45So, this is how the market is understanding this war.
19:50And in terms of record highs, you have Power India, earlier called Hitachi Energy, and, of course, GET&D.
19:59So, these are the two stocks that have hit record highs today.
20:02But that's the money flow and money speaks.
20:05Okay.
20:06All right.
20:07Now, a big statement coming in by the U.S. as it nears a trade deal with India, speaking at
20:12the Raizena Dialogues in Delhi.
20:14The U.S. Under Secretary of State, Christopher Landau, said that Washington will not repeat the mistake it made with
20:19China 20 years ago,
20:21allowing it to beat the U.S. in a lot of commercial things.
20:24He said the trade deal with India is almost ready, but the partnership must be based on reciprocity and fairness.
20:31We are very excited about the trade deal that is almost at the finish line now and, you know, think
20:41that that can be the basis for really unlocking almost limitless potential.
20:49And so, we are very much excited on focusing with India on these economic and commercial opportunities.
21:01And so, but again, India should understand that we're not going to make the same mistakes with India that we
21:06made with China 20 years ago in terms of saying,
21:09Oh, you know, we're going to let you, you know, be able to develop all these markets and then, you
21:19know, the next thing we know, you know, you're beating us in a lot of commercial things.
21:24We're going to make sure that whatever we do, it's fair to our people because ultimately we have to be
21:29accountable to our own people just as the government of India has to be accountable to its people.
21:37All right, just a few minutes to go before we close for the day.
21:40I just want to take you through some of the cuts.
21:42But before that, some breaking news coming in on your screen.
21:44Qatar Energy Minister telling Financial Times that a Middle East war could push oil to $150, choking Gulf energy supplies.
21:53I understand why this is significant.
21:54We were around 65, going up towards 18.
21:57He's quoting 150, saying that this would force exporters to halt shipments.
22:02This is a big, big news coming in right now with the Qatar Energy Minister speaking to the Financial Times
22:09saying that a Middle East war could push oil to $150, choking Gulf energy supplies and forcing exporters to halt
22:19shipments.
22:20As the latest coming in, this is from the Qatar Energy Minister himself speaking on the Middle East war and
22:27the current concerns around oil supplies, saying that there are key risks and that Gulf exporters could halt oil shipments
22:35going ahead.
22:36Mr. Chokalingam, this is pretty serious.
22:39This is the first such statement that we've received post the war breaking out.
22:43We earlier had reassurances from OPEC and from other countries kind of, you know, managing the situation.
22:50But this is the first major comment coming in that alludes to, you know, quite a steep hike in price
22:57as well as major disruptions to supply.
23:02If oil is to go to $150, then we are very sure we all will be jobless for next six
23:08months to 12 months.
23:09The impact on economy markets will be deadly.
23:11So let us accept that.
23:13It's very difficult because last time it went to $140, we saw what kind of growth correction happened post Lehman,
23:20before Lehman crisis.
23:22So, but I doubt even post, you know, Ukraine war, it maximum went to $120.
23:28Now the renewable space has taken off.
23:30Russia is also aggressive.
23:32And if oil has to go to $150, then the war has to become very deadly for another two, three
23:38months or more than that.
23:39And then the entire world economy will be impacted very badly, including Iran.
23:44So the pressure will build up across all the regimes to, you know, find a compromise solution.
23:49Therefore, I am putting it on record that beyond $100, $110, it is most unlikely in the next two, three
23:56to five years, the oil price to go up.
24:01All right, you know, it's very close to closing, just about a minute or two to go.
24:05So markets would not have had a chance to fully digest this information.
24:08But that's the big breaking news coming in.
24:10And we'll have to wait and see how post the weekend and, you know, how the war progresses, what we
24:16see on the homeless straits, really what the impact is on Monday morning with regards to that comment coming in
24:21and the further disruptions when it comes to oil, when it comes to LNG and so forth.
24:26Right now, markets have had a pretty steep cut for the day, while we have had a few gainers and
24:31BEL again from the defense pack.
24:33But on the downside, NL&T Foods is down 10%, Tejas Network is down 5%, Mastec down 5%, Godrish Property
24:40is down 4-5% today, Ashok Leland was down 4%, Mahanagar Gas, HPCL, ICICI Bank, 3.5% cut
24:48there.
24:48So banking and financials, in fact, across the board cuts coming in.
24:52GMR Airport was down 3%, Fortis Health, Prestige Estates, Real Estate as a theme was lower today as well.
24:59Lodha Developers, again, 3% there, so that entire pack, lots of banking and financial names, Imami, Ambaja Cements, BKG
25:07Foods, you name it, really, and we saw cuts of about 3%.
25:11Interclobe also down about 3% on the back of that downgrade coming in and continued pressure on aviation currently
25:17with what's happening globally.
25:19SPI was down 2.5%, 3%.
25:21Access Bank, Godrish Agrovet, for instance, M-Cure Pharma, it really didn't spare anyone.
25:28So that's really how the closing has shaped up in terms of cuts across the board.
25:33Nifty Bank has had one of its worst weeks ever and the Nifty itself also seeing a huge cut in
25:40trade today.
25:41So, you know, some amount of commentary coming in that the markets had possibly priced in what was happening in
25:47the Middle East or West Asia,
25:48but today clearly was a day when the markets continue to buckle under pressure and we're expecting to see further
25:54such sentiment or at least volatility over the next few weeks or so to speak.
25:59Shail, how would you sum up the week gone by?
26:02It was terrible.
26:03I'm hoping that sense will prevail and just as the war had started on the weekend, it will pause over
26:13the weekend.
26:14But the Qatari minister's statement has worried everybody and that's the reason why you see this very sharp fall that's
26:22happening.
26:24Let's hope the same sense will prevail, but for those who don't trade intraday and who are not looking at
26:31market from the point of view of Daily Pulse,
26:35please just relax, keep your sips in place and this too shall pass.
26:40We've seen many wars, we've seen much more pain and this will go away.
26:47Market is at a discount.
26:48Please try to buy sensibly.
26:52Or then just simply hang in there.
26:55This is not the time to sell.
26:56So even if you need liquidity, it's really just not the right time to sell.
27:01Just hang in there.
27:02Yes, Shail, go ahead.
27:03Are you saying something?
27:05Yes, tomorrow is Women's Day.
27:07So please celebrate it with the lady of the house and enjoy Sunday.
27:14Forget these worries.
27:16And we'll be back on Monday morning to tell you the good news or the bad news.
27:22Yeah, it's going to keep everyone having a, I know the cricket's on, but everyone's going to continue to have
27:27a bit of a sleepless weekend with that Qatar commentary coming in.
27:30The Qatari minister commenting just before market closing, saying that oil is going to hit $150.
27:36I think Mr. Chokalingam said we're just all going to be jobless if that happens.
27:40And I mean, I know we're laughing out of sheer surprise, but it's no laughing matter.
27:45If we do see that kind of move on oil, we know what it means for India's fiscal deficit.
27:49We know what it means for us as importers and for the kind of pressure it will put both on
27:54the economy and the markets.
27:55It's a few queries coming in before we close for the day.
27:58Amit Singh of Jaipur saying, is this the time to invest in oil and gas stocks?
28:04And Mr. Chokalingam, I think we touched upon it, but would you suggest buying into either the refiners or the
28:09OMCs?
28:11Oil stocks, yes, for the traders and short-term investors.
28:15You know, as long as the war continues, the oil producers, you know, would be benefited.
28:20But the moment any compromise is found, then overnight oil price will crash.
28:24So it is a good strategy for short-term investors who can take some amount of risk.
28:29All right. Cool.
28:31Also, Sanjay Nairu from Hyderabad saying, is it a good time to invest in liquor stocks?
28:36He's a long-term investor and clearly gearing up for the weekend.
28:40Would it be a good buy?
28:43I don't think so, because the recent substantial like in the GST on taxes on cigarette, it is likely to
28:52happen to liquor also.
28:53Because across all India, if you see, many state governments started spending lavishly on welfare schemes.
29:00So ultimately, you know, the liquor and cigarette are the two sources which would, you know, finance these welfare schemes
29:09directly or indirectly.
29:10So at current levels, I will not be overly bullish on, you know, liquor stocks.
29:16All right. Great.
29:17Mr. Rooklingham, Chail, thank you so much and have a great weekend.
29:20Thank you for being with us on the show.
29:21That's why we leave it today.
29:23You know, a dismal week for the markets, a dismal week for really the world, watching what's going on in
29:27Iran.
29:28Let's hope for some progress over the weekend, although it looks unlikely.
29:32And clearly volatility is here to stay for a few weeks.
29:35So hang in there.
29:36Thanks so much.
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