00:00If many are underestimating the actions of President Trump, Bob, do you think people are
00:04underestimating the actions of Iran, their ability to cause wreck havoc in the Strait of Hormuz to
00:10damage oil energy infrastructure? I do. I really think the market's getting that wrong as well.
00:17You know, folks are now going back to memory. I mean, when is the last time the U.S. military
00:22shot at an adversary? It was over in hours to days, first Gulf War, second Gulf War.
00:28You can go back to 1988 when we fought the Iranians and sank about half their fleet in an
00:34afternoon. But this is not those events. Iran has the means, the ability to make Hormuz unsafe
00:42for longer than the market, I think, expects. And Javier is exactly right. If we get to the end of
00:50this week and CENTCOM has not promised the world that Hormuz is free and safe and open, and we start
00:58to see that traffic resume, we're going to be in a world the market really hasn't thought about,
01:03probably doesn't believe could exist. And the math is pretty awful for oil and gas if it remains
01:09closed. Bob, I think a lot of reasons that people think that won't happen is because of the massive
01:13own goal that might present for Iran, given how dependent they are on China, that they're trading
01:19in renminbi and that they need them for imports that they're bringing in. Would Iran be hesitant to
01:24close the Strait of Hormuz or cause issues there just because of the exports of energy
01:29flowing through to China?
01:32Normally it would, but this is not a normal time. The Iranian regime or what's left of it is fighting
01:37for its existence. And as we've been talking about on this program, they're going to unusual lengths
01:42now, making it a regional war, turning the GCC countries against them, attacking hotels,
01:48attacking all over the place. Even the Europeans look like they're going to get involved.
01:52So Iran is resorting to desperate measures. And look, at the end of the day, Iran does not have
01:59escalation dominance when it comes to military. The only real leverage the Iranian regime can hope
02:05to have is over the price of oil, is to send oil prices high for a long period of time
02:12and hope that
02:13induces President Trump to back off. I think the Iranians, you know, President Trump says he's
02:18looking at the Venezuela example as a perfect scenario. I think the Iranians are looking at
02:23what the Houthis did last April. They survived 52 days of pummeling, a thousand munitions, a billion
02:30dollars. And the United States failed to compel them to stop blocking the Bab al-Madab. So this is
02:38much bigger than that. We're throwing a lot more at Iran than we did at the Houthis. However, the Iranians
02:43have much better weaponry and coastline to operate from. So I think the Iranians are here
02:48to they're going to try to put a high price of oil on the president's agenda and get him
02:54to say, I can't take this anymore after a few weeks and hope that he backs off. I think
02:58that's the Iranian strategy.
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