00:00What's the mood like with your clients from late last week into, I guess, a few minutes ago, if you
00:04were taking calls?
00:06Well, actually, so far, I would say clients are relatively calm.
00:09Of course, they want to know what's going on.
00:11They want to have news flow.
00:12They want to understand how we see the world.
00:15But we actually haven't seen too much action overall in terms of particularly no panicking, no panic selling,
00:22which I think is what we have tried to advise.
00:25Yes, there's a lot of uncertainties.
00:27There are a lot of known unknowns that might happen or not happen.
00:31And I think it's really important to have a plan, advise clients, see where they may be overexposed, where they
00:37have to reduce a bit.
00:38But there are also opportunities out of that.
00:41Can we at least say that we've seen the worst when it comes to energy prices, at least at this
00:46point,
00:46given that we have seen a lot of options or at least people weighing and officials weighing options to really
00:52calm oil prices moving forward?
00:55We just don't know.
00:56I mean, the fact is we are not experts when it comes to politics in Iran, for example.
01:02We are not even probably the most best suited people to speak about U.S. politics.
01:08What we know is if the conflict basically exists for a longer period and it will impact energy prices, energy
01:17prices will feed through inflation, will feed through to growth.
01:22And therefore, the longer this actually lasts, the more impact it will have and the more negative effect it will
01:28have.
01:28The shorter we actually get out of that, the quicker market can return back to normal, snap even back to
01:35the levels we maybe have seen before.
01:36Is that the first thing to watch, though, for now, for whether things are stable?
01:40Is it still the oil price?
01:41Is it dollar?
01:42I mean, what is it that you're looking at?
01:43Well, absolutely.
01:44I mean, the macroeconomic impact itself from the region is very, very small.
01:48The transmission is through higher energy prices.
01:50We know that every 10 U.S. dollar increase will probably take off 0.2 percent of global GDP growth.
01:58It has an impact on U.S. consumer, probably also around 20 basis points, 30 basis points every 10 dollars.
02:05It has an effect on gasoline prices.
02:08And it's a global price setting, even if the U.S. is maybe self-sustained in terms of energy.
02:14It's a price taker market, it's global pricing that is setting up and therefore will have an impact on consumption.
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