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As Thailand’s shock election result upends poll predictions and reshapes the political landscape, Awani Global unpacks what the results mean for the country’s future. Nailah Huda speaks with Dr Punchada Sirivunnabood and Dr Pongphisoot Busbarat to understand key dynamic shifts and polling factors in the election results.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09And this week on Awani Global, we take a close look at the recent election in Thailand
00:14with the results defying major polls and showing Prime Minister Anutin's Bumjai Thai Party
00:20becoming the first party to win by such a large margin in about 15 years.
00:25So joining us now to unpack what the results mean
00:28and what they say about the current state of the country,
00:31we have joining us Dr. Punchada Sury-Bunabud,
00:33Dean Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities
00:36and Professor in Political Science at Mahidol University.
00:39Thank you so much, Dr. Punchada, for joining us today on Awani Global.
00:43I think we can start off with looking at the overall results that we've seen.
00:49Some coming as a shock to certain analysts.
00:52Do you think this came as a shock?
00:54What do you think they kind of reveal about the current state of Thai politics right now?
00:58Dr. Punchada?
00:59Well, for the winner, for me, I wasn't that shocked because I expect Pungjai Thai will win the election.
01:06But what surprised me a lot is the number of seats that they got in this election.
01:10A lot of our, you know, analysis and the polls for that the party might get about 150, 160,
01:17but this time it's almost 200, but it's almost, we can call it like a landslide victory for Pungjai Thai
01:23party.
01:24And this make party Pungjai Thai to be able to form the coalition government by, you know,
01:30recruit or select the party that they want to join the coalition government.
01:34What do you think are some of the factors that could explain this big victory for the Pungjai Thai party?
01:40Well, first of all, I think it's the nationalism that Pungjai Thai wrestled this, you know, sentiment during the campaign
01:47because of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia last year.
01:51And then Pungjai Thai stepped into power to be the prime minister and the government.
01:55And they tried to boost the concept of nationalism among the Thais.
01:59This is the most important that, you know, wrest and also support Pungjai Thai party to win in this election.
02:04Another point is the economics of the country.
02:08Pungjai Thai, you know, have important, three important ministers that are respected and very famous in Thai society.
02:16One of, two of them are the minister of commerce and the new minister of finance.
02:21And these two people, these two ministers, they are really successful in their career
02:27and then can also make trust among the Thai peoples about the economic development and economics to get better for
02:35Thailand.
02:37We saw some of the major polls overwhelmingly projecting a win for the People's Party initially.
02:43How do you think these polls could get the results so wrong?
02:48Well, I think it depends on which poll, but most of the polls, you know, the way they collect data
02:53may be differences.
02:54If you got the poll from the professor in political science, I think most of the political scientists that did
03:01their own poll
03:02always said the same thing that Pungjai Thai would win the election.
03:06But the poll from other institutes like a university that they don't, I don't really know how they collect data,
03:13but it's maybe different.
03:15So these two polls of the two set of people are not the same.
03:19So then that's why the poll that you saw in the media, maybe their friends come from the poll,
03:25they collect by the political scientists or the real political analysis.
03:29So they already chose that Pungjai Thai would win this election.
03:33What do you think the results say about the People's Party?
03:37Do you think this marks the end of the Orange Way that we've seen becoming so popular the past few
03:43years?
03:43I don't think it's the end of the People's Party, but I think People's Party has to reconsider like what's
03:50going on with this party,
03:51why they lost so much in this election, because no one expect them to lost, you know, that many.
03:57You know, we were expecting this party to get about 100, 130 in this election.
04:03But for the constitutional seat, they got lesser than 100, which is a bit surprised.
04:09So they need to learn from, you know, what they have done in the past.
04:13And then I think that in the next election, this party still have a chance to win more seats and
04:19to win the election,
04:21to compete and maybe possible to win the next election as well.
04:25So may I add a little bit that I think a lot of people in Thailand want to see the
04:30strong opposition.
04:32People's Party, you know, are effectively to act and perform as the opposition party.
04:37They check and they also, you know, report a lot of corruption things.
04:41And, you know, they were doing the debate in the parliament.
04:45So I think as the opposition party, I think a lot of people, you know, want to see how the
04:51Orange or the People's Party
04:52to perform once again as the opposition party.
04:56Do you think there were any specific, you know, sort of miscalculation, any strategic errors on the part of the
05:02People's Party?
05:02I mean, you said, you know, they should try and understand how they lost and, you know,
05:07some of the polls, I guess, predicted a much bigger win, much more seats for the People's Party.
05:13What do you think are some of the crucial lessons they need to learn from this outcome?
05:17Well, another thing that they need to really reconsider the way that they're going to use,
05:21the concept that they are going to use in the campaigns.
05:24Because if you look at the policies that People's Party advertise on, you know, conduct the campaigns,
05:30they are focusing more on the restructure of the whole structures of the country.
05:35For example, you know, they want to get rid of corruption.
05:38They want to amend the constitution, which is a big thing.
05:41And it will take some time to be successful.
05:44In contrast, the Pum Jai Thai Party, they focus on the important and immediate issue that the country needs to
05:51improve.
05:52For example, like the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand and economic stagnation of the country at this point.
06:00So then that's why all the policies that Pum Jai Thai introduced during the campaigns
06:04can boost, you know, support from the people at this short period.
06:09And we can see the outcome by the short period, which is really different from the People's Party,
06:14that if you want to see the success of the People's Party,
06:18we may need to wait for some time and years in order to see, for example, the amendment of the
06:24constitution.
06:26You mentioned one of the factors leading to Pum Jai Thai's victory was to do with this sort of nationalism
06:33in the national mood and sentiment.
06:35And you also mentioned about the Cambodia border conflict.
06:39How much do you think this conflict shifted the political mood towards nationalism,
06:45towards more conservative stability and thus bringing to Pum Jai Thai's victory?
06:50Well, I think it's, you know, this conflict between the two countries is an important issue
06:55during the election times, particularly people in Bangkok and the middle class
07:01and also people who live at the border.
07:03They want to see peace between Thailand and Cambodia.
07:06And at the same time, they want Thailand to protect the area of the country.
07:11And Pum Jai Thai, especially the new minister of finance affairs appointed by Pum Jai Thai last year,
07:16he did a really good job on how to handle the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia,
07:21the speech that he gave at the United Nations really powerful and then bring Thailand
07:26to believe that Pum Jai Thai can protect the country,
07:30can really solve the problem of the Thailand and Cambodia conflict.
07:35So this idea and this policy of Pum Jai Thai on the nationalism is,
07:40I think it's the main important, you know, policies that make the party success,
07:44especially at the provinces near the border.
07:49Talking about this, we also want to look at the next steps forward,
07:53what we can expect from Thailand after this.
07:55How do you think Anutin's leadership, particularly the sort of nationalism
08:00that he brings in his leadership and his government,
08:03how do you think this might affect Thailand's relations with Cambodia moving forward,
08:07as well as ASEAN's management of this conflict?
08:12Well, I think Pum Jai Thai and, you know, also I have to mention
08:16the Minister of Foreign Affairs as well, and we know that who's going to be the new minister.
08:21I mean, the same person is going to be the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
08:24They really know about the foreign policy.
08:26They really know about what's going on in the region.
08:30I think by having Pum Jai Thai, maybe we can make trust amongst Thai people themselves
08:35on, you know, the conflict that can be solved by the party.
08:39And at the same time, with this new, actually the same Minister of Foreign Affairs,
08:44Mr. H. C. Hassak, he has a high experience on the foreign policy.
08:50I think it's maybe the way that can enhance the roles of Thailand among the ASEANs
08:54and can also make ASEANs trust Thailand more, especially on the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia as well.
09:03You mentioned a little bit about one of the main elements of the Bum Chai Thai Party's campaign,
09:09focusing not just on the Cambodia border conflict, but also on economic stagnation.
09:15And of course, there's a lot of news reports discussing about Thailand's state of economy,
09:20calling Thailand now the sick man of Asia, driven by this slowdown in consumption and even in tourism, in manufacturing.
09:29Do you think that this win for Bum Chai Thai might provide some economic stability?
09:34How serious do you think Anutin is about economic restructuring?
09:39I think Anutin and Bum Chai Thai is really serious about the economic restructuring of the country.
09:45By looking, you know, about the policy of the Bum Chai Thai last year,
09:49they put a lot of policy to boost the economic development and economic stability of Thailand.
09:54The Minister of Finance, together with the Minister of Commerce, they are not really a politician,
10:00but they are the former bureaucrat and also successful CEO of our companies.
10:06So the way that they deal with the economic policy is kind of really fast.
10:11And we can see the result right away after they step into power only a couple months.
10:17And we hope that these two ministers of finance and also the commerce,
10:23they can bring trust back for the government and also they can bring trust among the investors.
10:30As you can see, right after the election, when we know the result of the election,
10:35the stock market in Thailand is increasing very fast.
10:38And, you know, it's also increased even today.
10:41So I think it's a good sign for Thailand that with these new ministers of commerce
10:48and also the finance that has the experience in economic development,
10:53and I think they can have a policy to make Thai economy better.
11:00Also, on another note, you know, if we were to look at this from a sort of Western lens,
11:06a lot of Western media reports describe this as a big win for conservatives in the country
11:12or the conservative forces.
11:13Do you think that there's still space for reformist politics that we've seen before
11:18challenging the sort of royalist military establishment?
11:22Well, I think it's actually made the conservative more stable.
11:28And to be honest, we can see a routine and broom day to be government and prime minister
11:34for the next maybe like 10 years, because, you know, the way that they manage the politics,
11:39not only about the election itself, but other structure in Thailand is already controlled
11:45by the conservative, for example, like the senators and also, you know, some other ministries
11:52are already controlled by, you know, people who have a close relationship with particular
11:58government parties.
11:59So I think it's difficult to, it may be difficult to have a change again, particularly now the
12:07opposition party want to amend the constitution, even though they were in this last election,
12:14we also have the referendum together with the election for the amendment of the constitution
12:19as well.
12:19For the amendment of the constitution, I think the results show that most of the Thai people,
12:25about 19 million want to have the new constitution, but although that referendum did not really
12:31tell us that we're going to have the new constitution, there's a lot of process to go before we can
12:38have the new constitution, which is going to be difficult for the people's party and also
12:43the progressive side to make change of Thai politics overall.
12:49Yep.
12:50Thank you so much, Dr. Punshada, for your insight and for joining us on Awani Global.
12:57That is Dr. Punshada joining us from Maidol University sharing some insight on the Thai
13:03election results, but we'll be back shortly with more analysis.
13:21We are back on Awani Global, still discussing the recent election in Thailand. We want to unpack
13:28what the results actually mean and what they say about the state of the country. And joining us now
13:33to unpack the recent election in Thailand and the results we have joining us, Dr. Pong Pisud Pusparat,
13:40Director of the Institute and Security and International Studies ISIS Thailand, and also Assistant Dean of the
13:45Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University. Thank you so much, Paul, for joining us on Awani Global.
13:51Thank you for having me here.
13:53Maybe we can start off with just some of your overall thoughts looking at the results. What do you think
13:59they say
13:59about the current state of the country right now?
14:03Well, of course, we have more stabilities, but the dispute between the pro-democracies and the
14:09conservative group are still lingering because now a lot of people are calling for recounting
14:16the ballots. Some of the ballots are in question. So we're going to take some time to finish that business.
14:25But at least, you know, we can see the sentiment now from the elections that the populations or the voters
14:34perhaps prefer stability over change. You know, that probably can read from the victory of Pum Jai-Thai
14:42parties. While the people's party, the progressive parties won the popular vote, you know, Pum Jai-Thai
14:50in the conservative party is still, you know, for the majority, basically the first, you know, party
14:59that win most of the elections. So the progressive party was not able to converse that energy that they
15:09cultivate during the, you know, the few years ago and you into majority seating. We probably could see
15:16some of the rise and fall of the big party, especially the red in the red camp, a little bit
15:22more
15:23progressive, you know, led by a former Prime Minister Taksin Chinawatra. So you probably could see, you know,
15:30the party came to the third rank. So that's kind of like a big shrink for them. So probably we
15:41can read
15:41from, you know, these, you know, stabilities over change, and then it might have some benefit in terms
15:50of like kind of passing the political cycle. You know, if you follow Thai politics, you might have seen
15:57that Thai politics is often described as a cycle where the winning pro-democracy, right, parties
16:04eventually are ousted by the court or the judicial activism or even the coup. So, you know, the
16:12conservative party winning mean that one would not happen in the next, at least, you know, three to
16:18four years. And we might have like, you know, you know, the full term, you know, government in the
16:24next, next four years. So, but we still can see urban, rural divide between orange wave, you know,
16:32in the urban populations, and, you know, the conservative parties are mostly winning the
16:37provincial sittings. So that's probably can read from the stage of Thai politics now.
16:44What do you think are some of the factors that can explain Boom Chai Thai Party's victory? Do you think
16:50that this is or this marks sort of a shift towards conservatism in the national sentiment? Do you
16:56think this has more to do with the Cambodian border conflict? Is it to do with the economy?
17:01Yeah, well, I think it's the combinations of everything. But I think the nationalism card would
17:08be the key determinant in Boom Chai Thai parties and other conservative parties gaining more seats this
17:16time. While including that tactic of, you know, campaign, you know, the strength of the big houses,
17:24or we call in Thai, you know, big houses, meaning like, you know, those inferential figures in the
17:30provincial area who can control the vote, at least, you know, like mobilize the support. And then I think
17:36this time we see the consolidations of the conservative front using that mechanisms to secure the vote.
17:45So that's very, very obvious this time. And, you know, like, as the incumbent government,
17:53right, I mean, Boom Chai Thai has that advantage of, you know, showing the public that their economic
17:59pragmatism in the past couple of months, when you know, they are in the government, could benefit at
18:06least the short term for the populations, you know, a lot of campaigns, even though it's populist economic
18:11policy, but it kind of promises, you know, some of the, you know, benefit that people want to see,
18:18you know, normally voter would focus on the short term, not very long term, sort of outcome of this
18:24economic policy. So I think Boom Chai Thai got that advantage during this, during the, you know,
18:32its government in the past couple of months. And, you know, like, this time, I think institutional and
18:38elite backing also, one of the advantage of the Boom Chai Thai parties to win this election. So, of course,
18:45it's a caretaker government. And, you know, as the military party is kind of like shrinking, you know,
18:53since upper youth government, you know, finished his power, then there's no other choices, right,
19:02for the elite to support and the conservative people to support. So, Boom Chai Thai is the best
19:07option for them. So at least, you know, you can see this, that's why like all most of the vote,
19:13you know, in the conservative camp, now focus focuses on Boom Chai Thai only. That's the result.
19:21So what do you think went wrong for the People's Party? Do you think that their sort of more
19:27reformist campaign came at the wrong place at the wrong time? Or do you think that there were any
19:32sort of strategic miscalculations on their part? What do you think are some of the lessons that they
19:37need to learn coming out of this? I think, I think what they can learn is that, you know,
19:44well, I think the failure this time, well, I don't want to say the failure, but, you know,
19:49the result is not that good for them, because normally the People's Party would attract urban
19:57populations. And normally the agenda focus on national and structural level, national policy.
20:05And what I've noticed, you know, during the campaign, there are a lot of criticisms about,
20:11you know, the candidate not paying more attention to, you know, like local constituencies, right?
20:19Normally in Thai politics, politicians or candidates would visit houses, family, villages, attending
20:26wedding, funeral, you know, pay some, you know, respect to local god, you know, or religious institutions.
20:34I think people's party didn't really focus on that, right? I mean, like they focus on like very idealistic,
20:41you know, campaign on the agenda. So I think kind of missed out, you know, you know, the rural
20:49rural populations or provincial populations to vote for them. And, you know, at least this time,
20:58you have the, you know, the comparative or competitive parties who are very active in
21:07campaigning on nationalist sentiment, economic policy that the Pumjata parties just, you know,
21:14rolled out in the past couple of months. So I think the comparisons, like when people think about it,
21:20right? It's just like, oh, this is like very, very good for them. But at the same time, the
21:31people's parties are not, it's not, you know, promising enough. And it seems to be far from
21:39what they actually want. It's very idealistic and national level. So I think that that's one of the
21:45differences. And I don't want to say mistake, but, you know, it doesn't really touch with the
21:50local population much.
21:52It doesn't resonate as much. You mentioned this sort of nationalist sentiment quite a few times
21:58as being one of the more critical factors explaining the results that we're seeing. How much of it do you
22:05think had to do with the Cambodian border conflict and how, you know, under Anutin's leadership,
22:10the government, incumbent government managed to sort of handle it or tackle this conflict?
22:16I think the Cambodian conflict made quite a lot, a lot, you know, how should I say,
22:26quite a lot of advantage to Pumjata parties. And Pumjata parties, if you follow the campaigns
22:33in the last round of campaign, one week before the elections, you know, Anutin focused on this,
22:42you know, using national sentiment, using Cambodia conflict, you know, a lot to attract the, you know,
22:51the listener, the audiences, right? I think this round of, especially the last round of conflict
22:57with Cambodia, the fighting, that shows that Anutin government, when in power, they are strong
23:05against the enemy. And then that sentiment, you know, kind of resonates with the increasing
23:11nationalist sentiments among Thai populations against Cambodia. So I think this time, Cambodia
23:17conflict played a lot of roles and might be a key determinant as well.
23:23You know, the dust hasn't exactly settled yet. As you said, you know, there's been a lot of
23:28push for a sort of ballot recounting. But if we were to see, you know, this incumbent government
23:35potentially strengthening and staying in place, how do you think we might see the incoming government
23:43manage the Cambodian border conflict? Do you think that they could double down on their nationalism?
23:50And could this potentially affect how ASEAN is trying to manage the conflict as well?
23:56I think that that would affect ASEAN in general, because I think when you ride on this nationalism,
24:03you cannot, like when you ride on the tiger back, right, you can't get off. Otherwise,
24:10the tiger is going to bite you and kill you. So basically, you know, Anutin already promised
24:15the kind of hardline hawkish measure against Cambodia, at least, you know, he even said something
24:23like, you know, he's going to support building the wall, you know, on the borders. So, you know,
24:28like, if you already said that, and not doing that, that's gonna, you know, tarnish the party in the next
24:35election, right? At least if they don't, they're not gonna build the border wall, but, you know,
24:41they're gonna have like a very stronger positions against Cambodia, negotiation might be very
24:48hardened, and then that would affect ASEAN unity. I mean, as you probably could observe from the
24:55beginning, when Malaysia chair trying to, you know, mediate the conflict, well, a lot of international
25:02criticism on Thai governments that, you know, Thailand has been reluctant to adopt any, you know,
25:08regional solutions and preferred bilateral solutions. So that would be one of the key
25:17foreign policy directions during the Anutin government in this particular case, I think.
25:23We have just about one minute, but I think it would be quite interesting for us to also look at
25:28the
25:28Sinawad dynasty. You mentioned that they came in third. Do you think this marks the end for the family?
25:33Well, not quite yet, I think. I think they became a third winner, at least, you know,
25:39you can see a large portion of the population supporting them, especially on the northeast and
25:45the northern regions. But I think this, their advantage came at this juncture because of the
25:51mismanagement of the Cambodia conflict. In the beginning, when Paton Tash, you know what,
25:56was the prime minister, and you probably have heard the leak, the uncle leak, you know, that the phone
26:02call. I think that make the popularity of the parties went down, and probably just like at
26:10certain point. But I think during this time, the news is that they might join the government, and they
26:17might be able to show the public again that, you know, being in the government, they can exercise
26:22economic policies more wisely, and help the government and Thailand get through this economic
26:28obstacle. Thank you so much, Paul, for joining us and for your insight with us on Awani Global.
26:35That is all on Awani Global this week, looking at the Thai election. We'll be, of course, discussing
26:41many more issues in the coming weeks. Tune in next time with me, Laila Huda on Awani Global.
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