00:00We also have been joined by Parmeet Pal Chaudhary, he is the foreign policy and political economy
00:05analyst.
00:06Thank you so much Parmeet for joining us.
00:09The first question that I have from you is that where is the US election heading in terms
00:16of the power, the power figure that US has and US is being considered that they are controlling
00:23most of the geopolitics and the international relations when it comes to war and stability
00:29and of course oil and the dollar.
00:32But after all these years and the changes that you have seen in US elections, where
00:38do you think it is heading and how strong is it?
00:41And after November 5 or after January 20 when we have the oath-taking ceremony, where US
00:48is heading and how powerful they are going to stay?
00:52That is a difficult question.
00:55I would say that the first point is that whoever becomes president will face a number of geopolitical
01:04problems.
01:05The first one and actually the biggest and most important in the long term will be China
01:10because China is fundamentally unlike, it is not Russia, it won't invade places but
01:16it is designing, positioning itself to become the dominant player in what we call critical
01:22and emerging technologies.
01:23So the idea there, if you talk to the Chinese they are quite open about it, that America
01:28dominated the world in their view since the 1950s because it dominated critical technologies,
01:34it was the heart of innovation globally.
01:37China now is basically saying we are going to replace it.
01:42So that battle over quantum computing, semiconductors, AI, synthetic biology, there is a long list
01:49of these technologies which China basically says we are going to be the world leader and
01:54automatically we will therefore replace the United States over a period of time as this
01:59happens.
02:00In addition, they happen to also be the world's largest manufacturing base and the broad view
02:08is that all we need to do is slowly undermine American presence in what we call the Indo-Pacific
02:14and eventually all the cards will fall to China.
02:19It's a long term view, it's not as short term as I would say that Putin is, but it's there
02:26fundamentally deeply embedded in the Chinese system and it's important to realize that
02:31consistently in the American system, especially since roughly the second Obama administration
02:37onwards, there has been no change in American recognition of this policy.
02:43I would actually say, I'd even take it back to George W. Bush, who in many ways began
02:47as the first to really recognize that China was the threat that it was.
02:54One of the reasons India is reasonably confident that it does not matter who becomes President
03:00of the United States is that this China issue and this strategic technology struggle, if
03:08you wish, is something that India also fundamentally believes in.
03:12It is a strategic move that has been consistent between India and the United States now for
03:17a number of administrations.
03:19There are areas of difference between administrations.
03:24Trump is not as enthusiastic about climate, at least at the government level, which is
03:29something Prime Minister Modi takes seriously.
03:32On the other hand, we've had problems with the Democrats, lecturers on civil rights and
03:37so on, which India has taken on board, but really more or less ignored.
03:44So America will come in facing that problem, it will have a number of regional issues,
03:49obviously West Asia, Russia, Ukraine, that war continues, but there are new ones on the
03:56horizon.
03:57North Korea is going to be the next big challenge for another American president.
04:02North Korea is deploying troops in Ukraine.
04:05The word is that America has warned that if those troops enter Ukraine, there will be
04:12a NATO response.
04:15And if that is the case, then we're heading for another major crisis on the Ukraine front.
04:20But on the economic side, I don't think oil is not an issue for the United States, one
04:25of the great accomplishments in the past 20 years is that America has become the world's
04:29largest oil producer.
04:30America is energy independent.
04:31But dollars can be, there has been a chat among the BRICS countries, but dollar can
04:40be a problem.
04:41There has been a chat among BRICS countries, they want to replace dollar to buy oil.
04:46No, I disagree.
04:48If you know what's happening inside the BRICS, Russia and China want to replace the dollar,
04:55Brazil and India oppose that.
04:57All they have said that we can do more trade using each other's currencies, but that is
05:03not the same thing as replacing the dollar.
05:06That is just inter-currency trade.
05:08But keep in mind, China is the biggest trader among all of them.
05:12We don't trade much with Brazil or with so on, but we don't have a currency that other
05:19countries want.
05:20Russia doesn't want U.S.
05:22We do not want Renminbi.
05:25Brazil does not want Renminbi.
05:27So you end up with a situation, none of the BRICS countries actually want each other's
05:30currencies.
05:31So you can do a little bit on the margins, yes, but the fundamental idea of a BRICS currency,
05:38which is what Russia proposed, a gold-backed currency that would slowly push out the dollar,
05:44because in their view, not incorrect, I think America is debasing the dollar through a massive
05:51deficit.
05:53That India and Brazil vetoed.
05:54They said we're not supporting that because we believe that will fundamentally support
05:58China.
05:59It will not be in our interest to do so.
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