00:00Paswati Mukherjee, their former diplomat, joining us on the broadcast, and also Irina Superman,
00:06geopolitical analyst and U.S. National Secretary, joining us from New York in the United States.
00:12I presume it's Irina. Sorry, Irina. Thank you. Let me begin with you first. You are on the eastern
00:18side of the United States, and the voting has already begun there. How is the sentiments,
00:25first of all? Secondly, any clear answers that people have, or you have,
00:32who is going to be the next president of the United States?
00:36Well, so far, the polls are still showing that it's too close. Kamala Harris is in national
00:45polls. Kamala Harris is pulling slightly ahead, but still within the margin of error. So it's
00:51still impossible to tell. Trump appears to have a better chance in North Carolina and a couple of
00:59the other swing states. Kamala seems to be doing better in Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan. But
01:09again, most of these six out of seven swing states are also still within the margin of error,
01:16and it's hard to say who is in the lead. One of the things that has been noted by
01:23Nate Silver, a famous pollster, is herding, meaning that the polls are trying to overcompensate
01:33for misreporting in favor of candidates other than Trump in the past swing state reporting.
01:42So they may be giving, they may be underscoring, underreporting Kamala Harris's favorability in
01:50those states. But again, it's hard to say, and everything could change today depending
01:57on the numbers of people who turn out. Right, Irina. Vasudevan, obviously, it's a
02:05high voltage election, and as much as the United States is watching it with bated breath,
02:12far away in India too, ma'am, the implications and the expectations are also high. And we saw
02:19what happened with the markets, whether it was related to the US elections or not, but the kind
02:24of nosedive it saw yesterday. Obviously, the thinking caps are on. Diplomatically, ma'am,
02:30talking about India's relations with the United States, how important it is as of now for India
02:39to have a like-minded setup, to have a friend in the White House. And if that be the case,
02:45then who is that friend, in your opinion? Well, first of all, I would like to say for
02:52the sake of the American viewers, that India understands this is a strictly American internal
02:58affair, who the Americans vote in a democracy to select as their president. Unfortunately,
03:04there are many Western countries that try to interfere in India's elections, but we never
03:09interfere in elections of other countries outside India. It's up to the Americans to decide who
03:14their president should be. That being said, I do believe as a professional diplomat, that there is
03:20a broad understanding, cutting across the political divide in Democrats and Republicans, about the
03:27importance of the strategic partnership with India. But how that is articulated, how it is
03:32implemented, differs from administration to administration. As far as Kamala Harris is
03:39concerned, when she first became vice president, and she was invited to visit India, she never
03:45visited India. When she first became vice president, she underlined the fact that for her, her Black
03:52roots are much more important for her, and she considers herself to be Black, that I can fully
03:58understand the compulsion. There is a huge Black community out there. However, I'm also told, and
04:04I've worked with Africans for a long time, that a descendant of a Black from Africa, like Obama's
04:12father was Kenyan, is completely different from the descent of a Black from the Caribbean,
04:20because the Caribbean unfortunately did have a certain involvement in the slave trade a couple
04:25of centuries ago. So these are all notions which people in India don't know. So I'm saying this for
04:30the sake of your viewers. Whoever will be elected president, India will find a way to work with the
04:36President of the United States. Who would be more useful? It makes no difference. Who would be more
04:43amenable to work with India and to put the strategic partnership ahead in the perception of
04:49many policymakers, diplomats, strategic thinkers, etc. A Trump presidency would be easier for us to
04:56handle, because when President Trump was president, he did not implement many of the things he had
05:03threatened. The perception here is he will not implement many of the things he's threatening to
05:09get votes. But he had a very good relationship with India. He had an excellent bonhomie with our
05:14Prime Minister. When he came here, his visit was a huge success. When our Prime Minister went to
05:20U.S., it was a completely sold-out success. So we do believe also that President Trump
05:28is less likely, like the Republican Party, to continuously raise irritants in the bilateral
05:34relationship, the manner in which the middle and lower levels of the State Departments have done
05:39during the Biden presidency, giving the impression that while the top levels of the
05:43State Department fully support the strategic partnership with India, there are elements in
05:49the middle and lower levels that are still aligned to the old policy of hyphenation with Pakistan,
05:56not regarding India as a crucial player, etc. And unfortunately, the Biden administration
06:03has not been able to control it. The question then arises, Pankaj, why blame Kamala Harris?
06:08She comes with the baggage, because she was Vice President of the United States.
06:11She is still Vice President. So whatever baggage of Biden is there, unfortunately,
06:18it will fall on her shoulders. From that perspective, therefore, from a purely
06:24cold and calculated India's core national interest perspective, I think a Trump presidency
06:31would be better for us. But if it is not, we will find a way to work with Kamala Harris,
06:36as we have always worked with every elected American president. It's not a problem for us.
06:41We have a huge lobby in the U.S. on both sides, and we will work around whatever problems there are.
06:50Absolutely. Can't agree more, Tapa Suni ma'am, with you. I mean, very succinctly put here,
06:55the role here at UBSH, if you see, is not a small one that Indians play there. And Irina,
07:02definitely, I would... You can go to Irina. Irina, what do you think about the policies?
07:10What kind of move U.S. can make or the new president can make towards India,
07:15regarding the strategic partnership or other policies?
07:20I think either candidate or the president is going to have a strong and growing relation
07:26with India. I think China, for instance, is going to remain a threat no matter who is in
07:31the Oval Office. But I think the relationship will have a slightly different focus,
07:38depending whether it's a Republican or a Democrat with Donald Trump. There will likely be
07:44some tensions over tariffs, possibly the migration and the working visa issue that has been
07:51in the process of discussions under Biden may face some difficulties. And the energy question
08:00will be more domestic focused, but Trump has also supports the idea of nuclear energy,
08:07in that he... That is one thing that he and Kamala Harris have in common. He will likely
08:13be far less focused on Russia and far more focused on the Middle East and threats in the
08:19Pacific, coming from the Middle Eastern angle and also countering China. And therefore,
08:27the Quad will likely return to the idea of a security focus. And probably there's also going
08:37to be a greater emphasis on bilateral relations with India over multilateral alliances,
08:43although I don't think the Quad is going to go away. Harris will probably continue to focus
08:51on energy development and energy support and humanitarian and medical projects that started
08:59under Biden. She will probably continue the Biden administration legacy, focusing
09:08on democracy and human rights issues. The Halestan issue will probably remain somewhere
09:16on the radar. And of course, there'll probably be some concern over the India-Russia relations.
09:24I don't think there's going to be a radical change in course. I think there'll be a continuation
09:29of the technology investments, for instance, and a focus also on divesting from China over
09:37rare earths. So I think both administrations, in that case, will probably be looking towards India
09:46as one of the leading partners.
09:52Vasudevan, since Kamala Harris is obviously one of the front-runners and associated with her
10:02is not just the American sentiment, but also a lot of feminist issues. I mean, the issue of
10:08abortion, the issue of maternity leaves, all of them are weighing heavy on the US voters' minds.
10:16One of the key issues that the Indian diaspora faces there is the spouse's role as far as the
10:24H-1B visa is concerned. There has been a growing demand by the Indian community there, the diaspora
10:30that lives there, which is working there on H-1B visa, if the male counterpart is working or the
10:36female is working. The spouse, till now, hasn't been able to get the same rights according to them
10:44to work and to earn, if time permits. In that scenario, do you feel that, somewhere down the
10:51line, Kamala Harris understanding the sentiments of the housewives and the working women could
10:58ease these things out in the years to come?
11:02I don't think so. I think under pressure from MAGA and the Republican Party, she has actually
11:10much closer to Trump's position on as far as immigration is concerned.
11:15Immigration.
11:16It is not at all the original Kamala Harris as far as immigration is concerned. Secondly,
11:23the voters' minds are made up. And unlike in India, where most, 90% Indian women believe
11:32that abortion is a fundamental right for women, the same is not true in the United States.
11:38And there are many, many women groups, very conservative groups that are opposed to abortion.
11:44So we must not look at American society through Indian lenses. It is a very different society.
11:51It is a very polarized society. There are some pretty conservative groups out there. I've been
11:56in New York City for three years working for a firm in Michigan, New York. And I was amazed to
12:02see that in many ways, how backward American women are compared to educated Indian women,
12:09and how much they take, which an Indian woman would never take.
12:13So that was an eye opener for me, in fact. So please don't think that every single
12:19woman voter in the United States is going to vote Kamala Harris because she's strong on abortion.
12:25Not at all. In fact, this is again a highly polarizing debate. And the fact that a lot of
12:35black male voters have been scolded by Obama for not supporting Harris also shows how
12:42misogynistic is the American society. When you look at South Asia, all the countries of South
12:49Asia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have all had women presidents or prime ministers.
12:56And here is the only superpower in the world where whose men do not want to have a woman as
13:03president. It also shows how socially backward the American males are compared to us. So these are
13:10all things that Indians don't realize. They think they have a lot of money, so they must be ahead
13:14of us socially. Not at all. There is a huge opinion even among black men that they don't want Kamala
13:20Harris because she's a woman. So that outweighs whatever support she has on the abortion issue.
13:28Basically, in my perspective, this election will be won or lost by people judging the
13:36perspective of both candidates on the state of the American economy and on immigration. These are the
13:42two issues. And I don't see Kamala Harris helping the Indian community. She never did so when she
13:49was vice president. I see no reason why she will do it as president. If she becomes president,
13:55she will help the black community. She considers herself to be black. She does not consider
13:59herself to be of Indian origin. Absolutely. Absolutely. Irina, do you think the voters
14:09are looking at Kamala Harris? At least she claims to be black, as Baswati
14:16ma'am just mentioned. But the jury is still out. The debate is still on. And her Indian roots are
14:23also at times referred to the samosa caucus that we have very famously referred to as in the power
14:30corridors of the White House. How do you think Kamala Harris is navigating through these tough
14:38scenarios there? I think interestingly enough, she hasn't made identity politics a big part of her
14:45campaign in the sense of her ethnic background. I think the gender fault line has been far more
14:51prominent in this election, both in terms of who is turning out to vote for which candidate,
14:58and in terms of Kamala Harris's own focus and campaign. So I actually think that outside
15:05purely domestic issues, I think gender is far likely to be the focus of her social activity
15:14and the social issue side of her presidency than sort of racial and ethnic issues. I also don't
15:24think that her claim that she's far closer to her black roots is going to necessarily bias her
15:32against India on any sort of cultural level. I think if anything, it's her political views that
15:40are going to be challenged in terms of excessive focus on a very narrow understanding of the word
15:48democracy and on the human rights issues and the types of lobbies that are particularly keen to
15:55pressure a democratic administration. But I don't think that's going to be affected by her upbringing
16:01or cultural proximity. In fact, I think she will be pretty much open to cultural
16:08engagement, at least on domestic level. I haven't seen anything that would show the opposite.
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