00:00There were 338 nominees, but in the end, the Nobel Peace Prize went to Maria Corina Machado, known as Venezuela's Iron Lady.
00:08She's recognized for her decades-long fight against authoritarianism and for democracy.
00:14Amid threats to her life, she has been living in hiding the past year, and she becomes the 20th woman to be awarded the prize.
00:21Here's the announcement.
00:22The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 to Maria Corina Machado.
00:34She is receiving the Nobel Peace Prize for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela
00:46and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.
00:56Joining us from London is Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, the U.S. and the Americas Program at Chatham House.
01:04Hello to you, Christopher. Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
01:07What did you make of the decision to give it to Machado?
01:13I think it's a surprise. One could argue it's long overdue, not necessarily to Maria Corina,
01:17but it's a long overdue recognition of the dire conditions in Venezuela.
01:22And I think in many ways it reflects Maria Corina Machado's bravery in the last year and a half.
01:28There were elections last year, July 28, 2024, and before which they held a nationwide primary among the opposition.
01:38She was selected overwhelmingly, with 90 percent of the vote, to be the candidate.
01:42Shortly after she was selected, the Supreme Court, which is basically controlled by the government of Nicolás Maduro, disqualified her.
01:50But she continued to battle on and threw her weight behind a stand-in candidate.
01:54Her supporters were arrested, jailed, had to flee the country.
01:59In some cases, had to hide in embassies.
02:01So I think this is very important, and it's a good moment for the international community to remobilize around the dire situation in Venezuela.
02:09And this gives, if you will, the repression and the difficult situation in Venezuela,
02:14a human face and someone who's been long associated with the fight for electoral and democratic rights.
02:19Yeah, and I'm curious what the implications are.
02:21Will this put more pressure on the Maduro regime or on Machado herself?
02:27Well, she's in hiding, as your very good report just indicated.
02:31We really don't know.
02:32The Maduro government always reacts in very surprising ways.
02:35For example, when they stole the election last year, they refused to turn over any of the ballots that would have supposedly indicated their victory,
02:44although opposition candidates had gathered the ballots and demonstrated that Edmundo Gonzalez, who was standing in for Maria Karina Machado, had actually won.
02:53And then they unleashed this wave of repression.
02:55They really seem to be immune and impervious to any form of international pressure.
03:01In this case, they may respond with more repression.
03:04But what's also interesting in all of this is just off the coast of Venezuela right now, U.S. President Donald Trump, who also, of course, wanted the Nobel Peace Prize,
03:13has parked six boats, naval boats, a nuclear submarine, and about 10 F-35s,
03:19and has targeted Nicolas Maduro and his inner circle as narco-terrorists,
03:24and has become quite brazen in saying that his plan is to take them out.
03:27So we'll see this interplay between international legitimacy and peace and the issue of Trump threatening the inner circle off the coast.
03:36It could either provoke a more hardened response by Maduro, or it could provoke some response within his inner circle to say,
03:43OK, enough is enough.
03:45We can't take this anymore and remove him and seek some form of a democratic transition.
03:49Yeah. And every year, there's no shortage of qualified candidates to win this prize, over 300 nominees.
03:58But there's so much conflict and war going on right now.
04:01There are so many concerns about authoritarianism.
04:04We heard that in the announcement.
04:06Who else do you think was deserving of this prize?
04:09Was there anyone in particular you would have liked to have seen pick it up?
04:15Well, I focus on Latin America.
04:16So any time a Latin American leader in defending human rights and democracy gets the award, I think that's very positive.
04:23I think there are very strong activists and Democrats advocating for peace in Ukraine, for example,
04:30and also in Russia, for example, as well, which could have increased pressure.
04:35I think some of the people that are advocating for humanitarian assistance in Gaza,
04:40particularly in the UN and others, were deserving of this prize.
04:43And those are major conflicts.
04:45They're getting a lot of news attention.
04:47And again, perhaps betraying my bias in focusing on Latin America,
04:50I think Venezuela hasn't gotten the attention it needed.
04:52It needed for a long time a real personality on which to sort of hang the aspirations of the international community
04:59and the Venezuelan people.
05:01They had that.
05:01And I think this is welcome.
05:02And in part, Venezuela is emblematic of the overall backsliding of democracy in the region.
05:07Nicolas Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, really followed the autocrat's playbook page by page,
05:14in some ways similar to what Donald Trump is doing in the United States,
05:17packing the Supreme Court, shutting down the independent media, extending executive power, politicizing the military.
05:23This is really a signal not just for Venezuelan people, but for other citizens living under backsliding democracies,
05:31whether in El Salvador, in Belarus, Russia, elsewhere.
05:36So it's a powerful message about the importance of democracy and human rights in creating and maintaining peace.
05:42And the White House reacting after Machado won the prize, saying the Nobel Committee places politics over peace.
05:48I'm just curious, Christopher, if Donald Trump brings his transactional diplomacy to South America,
05:55do you think that'll help improve things in Venezuela or not?
06:01That's a tough question.
06:02I think right now, frankly, the mobilization of the naval assets off the coast of Venezuela
06:09with 6,000 plus naval personnel and Air Force personnel, it won't be easy.
06:16The truth is the Maduro government and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, has been in power for more than 20 years.
06:21They've thoroughly corrupted and politicized the military.
06:24They've allowed private militias and narcotics networks to dominate in rural areas, including in the government itself.
06:31This will not be an easy task of promoting a democratic transition.
06:34This is not Eastern Europe, say, in 1989.
06:37This is a thoroughly corrupted and hollowed-out government.
06:40So the processes of change are going to be much more complicated.
06:43It's not going to just require taking out a few leaders, as Trump has indicated,
06:48or rattling a few of the inner circle to do something.
06:51It's going to be a very complicated process.
06:53Quite frankly, I don't know if the Trump administration has the stomach to commit U.S. resources,
06:58because this won't be a transactional in-and-out sort of endeavor,
07:02as he's claimed he's conducted in other places that resolve peace,
07:06whether in Pakistan, India, now Gaza.
07:08We hope that's the case in that case as well.
07:11We'll have to see.
07:12But this is not going to be an easy case for that transactional approach that you just mentioned.
07:18Indeed.
07:18Christopher, thank you very much for your time.
07:20Christopher Sabatini, joining us from London.
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