00:00Well, freezing temperatures have reached Florida's Citrus Belt and the damage could be significant.
00:04AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter is going to join us now, breaking down what happened and why all this matters.
00:11So, John, thanks for making time for us at AccuWeather.
00:13We're always dialed into the weather forecast and how your average person is affected by this.
00:19This one is going to have some impacts, maybe at the grocery store, in a matter of days and weeks.
00:23It is. We think that those impacts will be somewhat limited due to the fact that the citrus crop production in Florida is considerably less,
00:34perhaps 20 times less in today's world as it was compared to the 1970s, for example.
00:42But there's certainly still plenty of oranges grown in Florida, especially here, as you can see, in the areas that are oranges and reds.
00:48That's where the highest concentration or density of the citrus groves are, which is just inland from Tampa down toward south of Orlando.
00:57So it's in the inland counties here, in particular, across Florida.
01:01And these are places that had many hours of sub-freezing temperatures, hence the concern about the crop.
01:07And, John, when you were looking at a freeze like this, what matters more for citrus damage, how cold it gets or how long the cold hangs on?
01:15And I guess as we kind of wrap that question into this conversation, what happened this morning in this area?
01:20Well, both of those factors are important, how cold it gets and how long the temperature is, especially at 28 degrees or lower,
01:28because that's the threshold when the temperature reaches 28 degrees or lower in the citrus groves.
01:35That's where you can get the sustained damage, and the accumulation of impacts can accrue much longer when the temperature is lower and also when those impacts are prolonged.
01:48And you can see what happened here early on Monday morning.
01:52Look at the 32-degree line near Tampa all the way south to near Orlando.
01:56So that means that the groves, the vast majority of the groves' temperatures there were 23 or 25 degrees multiple hours below that 28-degree threshold.
02:06So early estimates suggest that 5 to 10 percent of the remaining crop could be lost.
02:11What does that mean for supply for prices and growers already under pressure?
02:15Well, this is another negative impact to the Florida citrus industry,
02:20which has endured many challenges in recent decades from disease outbreaks, impacts of prolonged drought during the winter season,
02:28also impacts at times from tropical storms and hurricanes as well.
02:32So another loss as it relates to the growers there, which can create economic challenges certainly for them.
02:39On the broad scale, so many oranges are sourced from other parts of the world, including Brazil and also Mexico and California.
02:47So on average, we're not expecting that this can have a significant impact in terms of taking up the cost at the grocery stores.
02:54John, this has been a tough one as we kind of zoom out to the macro scale of this Arctic blast in the south.
03:00We've had tremendous snowfall in the Carolinas.
03:03We've had people in the dark for now eight days in parts of Mississippi.
03:06What does this cold snap mean for people, especially in terms of energy use for those who do have electricity and higher heating costs?
03:12Well, the cold has been so prolonged and so intense across a significant part of the central and eastern part of the country
03:20that that's going to cause certainly the demand for heating to be significantly raised as compared to the historic average.
03:28Our analysts are digging more into that, and we'll have more to say about that in the coming days.
03:32But needless to say, your home bills for certainly heating your home, whether you do that by electricity, gas or oil,
03:40they're going to be going up this month.
03:43And, John, I know that AccuWeather has released an economic damage impact for this whole event.
03:49So how does this frame up against maybe the previous week's billion-dollar, hundred-plus-billion-dollar winter storm?
03:55Yet another significant loss, this one, $13 to $15 billion from the impacts of the heavy snow across the Carolinas,
04:02which really ground all sorts of different travel, significant impact to businesses and supply chains once again.
04:10And, of course, all the costs associated with removal of that snow and the extreme cold,
04:15including these crop losses that we're talking about here in Florida, which were significant.
04:20All right, John.
04:20Well, we appreciate your insight.
04:22As always, AccuWeather chief meteorologist John Porter.
04:24Thanks again, John.
04:25Good to be with you.
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