00:00Gold. What's gold at the moment? It's like 5,500. I guess it's difficult to say.
00:05Yeah, I think, and this goes to the, is it a sell America or hedge America conversation?
00:10I think so. I think there is some discontent, some dissatisfaction on US policy.
00:15Some diversification is being embraced, but I think ultimately clients still look.
00:20Look at the breadth, the depth, the size of the US Treasury market, and they still want to be there.
00:25Again, what do you think the biggest story is over the next couple of quarters?
00:28And I know, you know, it's a very volatile.
00:30Things can change very quickly, but is it really some of that inflationary pressure?
00:35Is it the labor market that could weaken because of AI, or is it steady as they go?
00:40Until the end of the year?
00:41Yeah, I think, yeah, it's a question of whether we still have that path to one or two more
00:45cuts this year, which the market is pricing.
00:47And I think that path to that, like you said, is disinflation.
00:50Inflation later on this year with maybe a new Fed chair as well.
00:54So if I look at inflation.
00:55You know, growth is fine, but I think disinflation can continue at the same time.
01:00You don't have to be mutually exclusive.
01:02There are disinflation in the pipeline, say from rent.
01:05From tariff goods inflation peaking, you're in a K-shaped economy as well.
01:10Which then limits how much corporate pricing power there actually is.
01:15On that AI story, and our view is that if growth is driven by an AI boost,
01:20you're coming with productivity gains, you're doing more with less.
01:23So the labor market can...
01:25You still rebalance, and you still see that downward pressure on wage growth
01:28while growth remains elevated.
01:30Is there a danger that actually the labor market is disrupted quite significantly in the...
01:35It's because of AI, and the Fed would have to do something about it.
01:38And yes, so the...
01:40The global mandate is inflation, it is the labor market.
01:42I would say for now we are seeing stabilization.
01:45Rather than something more significant, but the Fed is going to be aware of that.
01:50I think that's why bonds are still a good thing to have in your portfolio as a...
01:55Conversified, just in case.
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