00:00Superdivided Federal Reserve, based on the communication we've had so far from the committee following that decision,
00:04this line here from Governor Mayer and to us just yesterday, that we're a fair way away from neutral,
00:09I think we could get there a bit faster. How close are we to neutral?
00:13Well, the key question here, of course, is are we doing monetary policy according to some framework with R-Star or some forecast,
00:20or are we doing monetary policy according to data dependency?
00:23Because it's very clear that a lot of the arguments that are being laid out for more cuts, of course,
00:26is really dependent more on the forecast, or is dependent on some framework about what do you think R-Star is.
00:32So the discussion about R-Star, which we now have had for many years, of course, is very clear there's a lot of uncertainty.
00:38So with that backdrop, yes, some estimates are low, so you could argue that those are the ones you should be focusing on.
00:43But it's very clear that the divide really here among AFMC members in the last few days has been around,
00:47should we focus the policy decisions today on R-Star and some forecasts that we may have,
00:53or should we focus it on the incoming data?
00:55Well, let's talk about the incoming data.
00:57How can we forecast anything if we don't really know where we are at the moment?
01:01Well, we do have CPI, of course, before the last AFMC meeting.
01:04But what we also have is a number of indicators for the labor market are also still showing that things are actually still okay.
01:09If you look, for example, at the macro edge job announcement cuts data, that's still okay.
01:14The challenger grand Christmas job cuts data is actually also still okay.
01:17If you look at ADP, job creation is also okay.
01:20If you look at Revealio Labs, also job creation, also okay.
01:23If you also look at paychecks, there's also a link up.
01:26There's also indeed job openings taken together.
01:28All these indicators are not showing a labor market where the bottom is falling out.
01:32So that's why the conclusion from Jay Powell last week was very clear.
01:35Inflation is still around three.
01:37The labor market is still okay.
01:39So with that backdrop, what is the argument for cutting rates,
01:42at least when you look at it from a data-dependent perspective?
01:44好的.
01:45I'm над fonction
01:51in the perspective right fro awesome.
01:52I've got another dropiker.
01:53All these data in mind, it looks very quiet.
01:56And the filly areas can be a little more��ilatim well.
01:57I know for your students' access to the healthcare market,
01:59I don't think I'm unsafe, but just so much in the wallet,
02:00and drinking it.
02:01I know for someone with me,
02:02and store shot lists the floor is close to the machine,
02:03so you're umming.
02:05And all the metrics that that you can scrub them.
02:06And fix that stuff I feel that way when I przy% ossie do longer about it.
02:07Okay.
02:08So maybe that doesn't necessarily output time there you see
02:09in theämä Sky is decent.
02:10And I know what I think is perfect for them a national security.
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