00:00David, where does this leave the Fed then?
00:01You don't think they're hiking in this environment.
00:03No, I think they're going to work on their golf game for the rest of the year.
00:06I mean, what they're not going to do is they're not going to cut in June.
00:12And the only question is, I used to think the only question is,
00:15is it going to be 12-0 or 11-1?
00:1811-1 would be fascinating because there has not been a single instance
00:21in all the history of the Federal Reserve of the Fed chair voting against the majority of the FOMC.
00:25And I don't think it's going to happen now.
00:27So I think it's probably going to be 12-0.
00:28The other question is, is there any Fed, particularly regional bank president,
00:32who might say, you know what, we should hike.
00:34I'm going to dissent in favor of a hike.
00:35At some stage in the next few months, you might see that.
00:37But overall, the majority of the FOMC is going to keep their heads down,
00:41try to get through 2026, see how the situation in the Gulf finally resolves itself,
00:46and then see what the trajectory of the economy and inflation is at that point.
00:49Has the risk increased, though, for a Fed chair to dissent?
00:54It has, because, you know, we'll have to see how Kevin Walsh approaches this,
00:58because he clearly gave the president the impression that he might be open to cutting rates.
01:03I don't actually think he is, but he gave him that impression.
01:06And so the question is, how does he now square this?
01:09But my guess is, you know, he's a smart guy.
01:11His job now, the job of the Fed chair is to try and find a consensus in the committee.
01:16It was interesting that Jay Powell talked about that a little bit in his last press conference.
01:19That's really the job of the Fed chair.
01:21Well, you're not going to form a consensus or build that consensus over the years
01:25if you start out by dissenting from all your colleagues and a rate cut.
01:28We've redefined dovishness.
01:30It's just getting this Fed to do nothing through the summer.
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