00:00Well, how long, how high, how fast would inflation have to move to merit a rate response?
00:07Well, I think really it does go back to kind of the full kind of set of factors influencing inflation.
00:12And I'm going to bring up tariffs because it is a big part of the story so far about why
00:17core inflation has been elevated.
00:19So I am watching, you know, imported good prices, looking at core inflation, inflation expectations.
00:24And then obviously on top of that, what's happening to food and energy.
00:27So to my mind, monetary policy today is really well positioned, given where all of those dynamics have been playing
00:35out and well positioned to kind of wait and see on some of the effects of, you know, what's happening
00:41today.
00:42This isn't I'm not saying we're just, you know, in some kind of we can't act.
00:46I think this monetary policy is exactly where it needs to be.
00:49And then we can we can respond if the situation changes.
00:52Right now, I think that monetary policy, though, is pretty well positioned, you know, given what we've been seeing so
00:58far.
00:59Monetary policy is well positioned.
01:00But what about the economy?
01:02What's the state of the economy?
01:03Well, you know, if you asked me this a month or two ago, we would be talking about remarkable resilience
01:10of the economy growing at 2 percent last year, looking to grow even faster this year.
01:14Clearly, with the conflict in the Middle East, that changes that a bit.
01:17I'm so I'm, you know, consumers of families are going to be paying higher fuel costs, gas price with the
01:24gas price increases.
01:25So I've been bringing down my forecast for growth this year, probably somewhere between two and two and a half
01:30percent for growth this year.
01:31An unemployment rate probably staying around where it is now, 4.3 percent.
01:36And in an economy that's, you know, continuing to grow, but roughly, roughly at trend, again, driven by consumer spending
01:43and investments, especially in AI.
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