- 2 days ago
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to France 24 with me Gavin Lee. It is 6 o'clock in the evening here in Paris, 1 o'clock in the afternoon in Caracas, midday in Washington and we have an extended programme tonight.
00:19Given the scale, the consequences of events in Latin America this weekend, more details are emerging of the capture of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours of yesterday morning.
00:29The extraordinary air, land and sea operation carried out by US military and special forces, the snatch and grab of the authoritarian leader and his wife from a safe house in the centre of Caracas.
00:39A move that has stunned US Congress and formed at the last minute and other world leaders whose foreign intelligence agencies have barely had time to take in the actions and the consequences of what happened in the two hours and 20 minutes of Operation Absolute Resolve.
00:54It's been like watching a film, President Trump told reporters while he watched events play out live by drones and body cameras in Caracas and the White House version of events posted on social media not dissimilar to any Netflix trailer.
01:09Last night, on the order of the President of the United States,
01:15and in support of a request from the Department of Justice,
01:18the United States military conducted an apprehension mission in Caracas, Venezuela, to bring to justice two indicted persons, Nicolas and Cecilia Maduro.
01:30Nicolas Maduro had his chance until he didn't. He effed around and he found out.
01:36This was one of the most stunning, effective and powerful displays of American military might and competence in American history.
01:46I don't understand yet how they haven't figured this out. And now, if you don't know, now you know.
01:51Now, the immediate focus is on, well, what happens next for Venezuela, given the legally questionable declarations from President Trump that Washington is now, quote,
02:01running the country until a, quote, safe, judicious transition and ensuring U.S. access to its oil as well.
02:07The Venezuelan Supreme Court has named Vice President Dulce Rodriguez as interim leader.
02:12She's given a defiant speech against the U.S., but analysts suggest you may have secretly agreed to deal with the Trump administration.
02:18All the while, President Maduro, now in prison sandals and tracksuit, awaits trial and to appear in a New York court on Monday.
02:28Good night. Happy New Year.
02:32Good night. Happy New Year, he says.
02:34Joining our special programme tonight, we have a Washington correspondent in D.C., Fraser Jackson with us.
02:39And also coming up in the U.S., we have Gabrielle Helland, political sociologist specialising in Latin American politics, associate professor at the university and author of The Democracy on the Ground.
02:50Local politics in Latin America's left turn.
02:52Here with me in Paris, Ketavan Gourjastani, our international affairs editor and the French socialist senator to Hélène Conway-Moré.
03:00Good evening to all of you tonight.
03:01Great to have you with us on the programme.
03:03We begin in Caracas, the uncertainty there right now.
03:08Our reporter Norris Agote Soto describing to us a short while ago what life is like the day after Maduro's rendition.
03:15I've been watching closely, monitoring the international media, and I was watching how Venezuelans abroad have taken the streets to celebrate in their countries that they are in.
03:28But in Venezuela, the picture is widely different.
03:32There's not much people on the streets and the ones that are on the streets are buying groceries, making lines to buy food or just to fill their tanks with fuel.
03:43And also there's like an uneasy calm that you can even cut with a knife.
03:52Nobody's celebrating.
03:54Nobody is either rioting or protesting.
03:58Everything is silenced.
04:00It looks like a kind of a mourning situation.
04:03But we think it's because people, it's still very afraid as to the people who is in charge, was second in command with Maduro.
04:14So I think that's the reason nobody's celebrating or going out on the streets today, not even the police.
04:21An update in the past few minutes.
04:23First of all, an announcement from the Venezuelan military saying that the population can now go about normal activities after the capture of Maduro yesterday.
04:30We're also hearing, this is from the defence minister, Vladimir Padrino, in the past few minutes as well, saying, quote,
04:35a large part of Maduro's security team and, quote, according to the Venezuelan ministry, innocent civilians were killed in the raid, in the operation.
04:46Let's bring in Fraser Jackson in Washington.
04:48Very interesting coming from Venezuela.
04:50The information drip fed through from the defence minister today.
04:53Yeah, Marco Rubio has been out on the Sunday shows today, giving a bit more kind of of the US position and a bit more detail than Donald Trump went into into his after his press conference.
05:16Marco Rubio very much defending what the US has done, but also kind of tempering what exactly we heard from the president.
05:23Donald Trump said that the US would be running Venezuela.
05:27It very much now appears that is not the case, that the Venezuelan government is still in position there.
05:35But the US is maintaining what Marco Rubio called a quarantine around Venezuela.
05:39So very much what we've seen over the course of the last couple of months, a significant US army and military presence in the region blockading tankers,
05:48which Marco Rubio said was vital to the Venezuelan economy and funding the regime.
05:54So the US could potentially seize more of these oil tankers, these sanctioned tankers that we've seen over the course of the last few months.
06:01But very much the US prepared to do whatever it takes, in the words of Marco Rubio, to stop anything like the Maduro government taking root again and anybody who has that kind of ideology.
06:14So Marco Rubio very much believes that the vice president, who is currently the interim president, is pretty much in line with the US and will do what the US wants.
06:26He says that he's going to monitor their deeds and actions over the course of the next few weeks and months and not take them at their statement value.
06:34Because, of course, the Venezuelan government very much in its rhetoric is not standing with the US government and is very much the opposite of what Donald Trump said in his press just a couple just yesterday.
06:46So for now, the status quo kind of continues.
06:49We're still waiting to see what the full fallout of this is.
06:52But the US still maintaining that pressure on Venezuela and still reserving the right to send boots onto the ground if it wants to as well.
06:59It's a very interesting point.
07:00I'm going to hear from Marco Rubio in just a moment, Secretary of State.
07:03Let's just take a look at live images now.
07:04I mentioned a moment ago the urging from the military for people to go about normal business.
07:09Take a look at this.
07:10This is in Caracas right now.
07:11People taking to the streets, ostensibly pro-Maduro supporters.
07:16It will be very surprising right now to see, given that the rump of the regime in place and they'll say Rodriguez, the vice president, assuming the responsibilities of presidents, according to the Supreme Court there, those willing to decide to be defiant right now against the authoritarian government would be a much bigger risk.
07:35Let's hear then from Marco Rubio a short while ago, explaining why the US didn't tell Congress, because he said there was no issue of legality.
07:45Let's take a listen.
07:47We didn't occupy a country.
07:48This was an arrest operation.
07:50This was a law enforcement operation.
07:52He was arrested on the ground in Venezuela by FBI agents, read his right, and removed from the country.
07:56The Department of War went in, they hit anything that was a threat to the agents that were going in to arrest them, and they hit anything that was a threat on the way out, and they hit anything that was a threat to them while they were on the ground.
08:08And that was a very limited and targeted operation.
08:11Let's bring in Ketavan as well.
08:13Ketavan, very interesting.
08:14Fraser talked about this round of interviews.
08:16Marco Rubio also talking to CBS, and he's been asked about why the US is not supporting the opposition, Edmundo González and Maria Corina Machado.
08:25Yes, because that was something that many saw possibly the logical step after removing Nicolas Maduro, and that's not at all what the Americans are doing right now.
08:36And what has been indicated by both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio is that they're, in a way, giving a chance to what is left of the Maduro regime, starting with, of course, the interim president now, Rodriguez,
08:51but also the rest of the apparatus, the rest of the government.
08:56And so the question was, one, put to Marco Rubio.
09:00You, a few months ago, called Edmundo González, the man who stood in Machado's place to stand for those elections after she was barred,
09:09that the Americans believe won the election, and that Marco Rubio himself, at the start of the Trump II term, called the rightful president of Venezuela.
09:22And so he was asked, why did you not turn to these people to sort of start that transition that you're talking about?
09:29He sort of danced his way out of that question, saying that they had focused on getting rid of Nicolas Maduro and they could not, you know, get rid of everybody at the same time.
09:40And then he was pushed again on why they would go for the rest of the Maduro regime, noting that Rodriguez herself is sanctioned by the Americans.
09:53The interior minister, Diosdado Escabeos, he's also not only sanctioned, he is on that indictment that Nicolas Maduro is on as a narco trafficker himself.
10:05He has even a $25 million bounty on his head.
10:10He's the interior minister in charge of the police that is, in part, repressing some of the Venezuelan people.
10:17He's still around.
10:18The defense minister also has a bounty on his head from the Americans.
10:24All of those people are still in place and seemingly will be the people that the Americans are going to be negotiating with.
10:31And in this case, Marco Rubio again tried to dance his way out of it and said, look, you saw the military operation.
10:39There was no way that we could do this and remove five or six people at the same time.
10:45We focused on Nicolas Maduro.
10:46The reality is that if the Americans want to avoid sending tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops to control a country,
10:56they need to rely on the existing apparatus, the military, the police, the whole government system.
11:04And right now, the leader of that system, that apparatus, is Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president, and the people around her, including the interior and the defense minister.
11:15Listening to you, Ketavan, Hélène Conway-Moré, great to have you on the program this evening with us, Hélène.
11:24I'd like to know, first of all, how are you viewing these events?
11:27What is foremost in your mind right now after what's happened in Venezuela and the consequences?
11:32And is it a curse or a blessing for Venezuela?
11:34Well, it has taken us by surprise as the Americans hadn't actually warned the Europeans about this military operation.
11:46Of course, nobody believed that the deployment of the U.S. Navy in the Caribbean was simply to stop a couple of fishing boats carrying some bundles of drugs.
11:59So, obviously, there was a preparation of a major coup which has happened.
12:05So, every time, there's a kind of sideration as to what has actually happened.
12:12But I think it's very coherent with what Donald Trump is actually doing overall, both for the internal policies,
12:22you know, to reassure the American people that is acting for them and, indeed, fighting drugs,
12:29which is a plague, which is a plague, is a just cause, except that violating the sovereignty of a state and kidnapping or capturing its president
12:40goes far beyond, you know, what would be expected.
12:45So, I think, you know, it has sent a lot of messages, first of all, of the American military supremacy in the world,
12:54that, indeed, that, indeed, Americans can do what they want, where they want, when they want.
13:00Also, to us Europeans, to show us that, indeed, we do not count very much,
13:07but, indeed, that was announced with Mr. Vance's speech in Munich nearly a year ago,
13:14which we didn't want to, you know, hear.
13:18That is, that, you know, in the world, there is China, there is Russia, and there is the United States,
13:24and everybody else is to go about, you know, trying to find, you know, its place between these big empires.
13:33Very interesting couple of points that you made, particularly when it comes to the legality and Europe's response to it,
13:40because some of the, let's face it, Hélène, I think fair to say both from, well, not just President Macron,
13:46but also for Sir Keir Starmer in the UK, and Friedrich Merckx, the Chancellor in Germany,
13:51very cautious, very calibrated responses so far, saying,
13:55we'll just check if it's in accordance with international law.
13:57Well, let me read this to you. This is Harold Hunching Cole today, international law expert,
14:02a prominent legal advisor, formerly of the State Department in the US, said this,
14:06it is false rationale to justify entering a country, capturing its president, and seizing its assets, its oil.
14:13This is, quote, a naked profiteering, evoking a claim they are trying to suppress drugs.
14:19This is internationally illegal. What do you make of that?
14:23Well, all of that is true.
14:27What this operation has done is to fracture, I think, for 2026 and after international security,
14:37because I do not see why tomorrow President Putin would feel that, you know, he should act differently,
14:45likewise with China and Taiwan.
14:49I mean, you know, what will stop China tomorrow from taking over Taiwan,
14:54saying that it is in the interest of China, invoking whatever, you know, reason there may be.
15:00It's oil for the Americans. It could be the chips for the Chinese.
15:05And that's it.
15:06So it means that it's the rule of the strong ones that prevail,
15:10and it's the rule of force against international law.
15:15And, of course, us Europeans, it is we may be the last continent to believe in democracy and democratic values,
15:23because, you know, if you see who has actually supported the American intervention,
15:30the American action, it's the extreme right, you know, leaders around the world,
15:36and certainly the two or three that are in power now in South America,
15:41who felt that what was done by the Americans was right.
15:46So, you know, there's a very strong ideology.
15:49There is a kind of a new world order.
15:51This was announced, but I think, you know, what was announced is not taking place in front of our eyes.
15:56It has taken less than a year for Donald Trump to put in place what he has announced.
16:01And it is ideologically driven.
16:04And, of course, it is not in line with international law or democratic values the way we know them in Europe.
16:11Gabriel, listening to Hélène, Gabriel Hélène, political sociologist,
16:15great to have you with us as well on the programme tonight.
16:17First of all, did you see this coming?
16:20You know, a lot of analysts talking about there was obviously a build-up for five months,
16:24but not many beforehand were saying this is about to start.
16:28How did you see it?
16:31I was very surprised by what happened yesterday and over the last 24 hours and more.
16:38I've been following very closely Trump's policy in Venezuela over the last several months.
16:44And it was clear that he was focused on Maduro.
16:47It was clear that it wasn't really a drug operation.
16:49It was a hope for it.
16:51But it seemed like he wanted to use various forms of non-military pressure to try to push Maduro out.
16:58And so it was really, frankly, shocking to see this military operation take place yesterday.
17:04It's a clear violation of international law.
17:07It's a clear military engagement.
17:09It's a sort of regime change operation,
17:11although whether or not it's actually going to effectuate a full regime change is a question.
17:16But it's different than what Trump has sort of railed against.
17:20I mean, he's talked about avoiding forever wars.
17:23He's talked about avoiding regime change operations.
17:26And now he's clearly engaged in one.
17:28So it was very surprising.
17:31Gabriel, stay with us.
17:32Just looking at this live images at the moment from Caracas,
17:35the protest building there for those just joining us here on France 24.
17:38We heard from the Venezuelan military in the last hour or so saying that they were urging people to come to the streets to go about normal life, was the quote.
17:49What we're seeing now is those in support of Nicolas Maduro.
17:53It would be surprising to see those against Nicolas Maduro, given that the vice president is now ostensibly in charge,
17:59according to the Supreme Court.
18:01Going back to the point, though, Fraser Jackson also with us.
18:03And this is President Trump saying that he's running the country.
18:07And I'm wondering whether you've scratched below the surface here,
18:09because I guess that the big conundrum for people is the difference between what's going on publicly, Fraser,
18:15between Dulce Rodrigo, the vice president, and in the background, privately with the Trump administration.
18:21We know she had a long conversation with Marco Rubio, the secretary of state.
18:25What's your sense of what's going on behind the scenes?
18:27Well, ultimately, I think there's kind of a couple of things going on.
18:34We heard from Donald Trump that there was that phone call between Marco Rubio and the now interim president, Rodriguez.
18:42Of course, Donald Trump has a history of hyperbole.
18:45So, you know, I definitely assume there is some kind of contact between the two parts of the different governments.
18:52But the content of that phone call and how it went, clearly there is a difference of opinion on that,
18:59because Donald Trump says that the phone call went really well and that Rodriguez ostensibly agreed to do whatever the U.S. wanted,
19:07just in order to kind of stay in power, as it were.
19:10But, of course, Rodriguez, in her speeches since, has railed against the U.S. government.
19:15She said it's, you know, been a kind of infraction on sovereignty and her rhetoric has been a lot more heated
19:22than would be suggested by a civil phone call between Marco Rubio and Rodriguez.
19:27So either there has been a gross misunderstanding of the contents of that call and how well it went,
19:33or one side of this is effectively lying.
19:36So whether that is Rodriguez and trying to save face for her own public,
19:41and, of course, that is very much in the kind of vein of nationalism that we've seen from Venezuela
19:45to kind of stand against the U.S. and oppressive foreign powers,
19:49maybe that is her kind of bluff that she's upholding.
19:54Or Donald Trump is also, you know, once again making things out to have gone better than they had done.
20:01So we've, you know, it's kind of difficult to read which side this falls down on.
20:05I think it's what's interesting and important to note, though, is that we should not be that surprised by this.
20:11Two months ago, in November, the U.S. released its national security strategy.
20:16And in that strategy, it talked about how the U.S. was re-censoring its focus now into its own backyard,
20:23into the Americas.
20:24So we should see and expect more of this kind of action,
20:28more of this kind of pressure on other Latin American and Central American nations.
20:33And, indeed, Marco Rubio was asked about that just today on Meet the Press.
20:38He was asked whether Cuba was next.
20:40And he said the Cuban government is a huge problem.
20:43And when he was then pressed again as to whether the Cuban government could be the next target of this kind of pressure from the United States,
20:50he says they are in a lot of trouble.
20:53Yes.
20:53So just, you know, prepare yourselves for this.
20:56This is not something that it was a blip on the radar.
20:59The U.S. is re-censoring its focus to the Americas.
21:03It is moving its influence away from Europe, away from Asia.
21:07And this is what ultimately is the worry.
21:10When I talk to, you know, diplomats here in Washington and I talk to people about the potential, you know, invasion of Taiwan, for example,
21:18people are worried that the U.S. is now starting to look closer to home.
21:21It's taking its eye off the ball elsewhere.
21:23So that obviously means that now the pressure is going to increase on various countries around the Americas.
21:27But that rhetoric, Gabrielle, listening to Fraser's point, when it comes to the national security strategy,
21:33when you look at the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. looking after its own backyard, as per the Monroe Doctrine back in the 1830s,
21:41you know, going back in history to see what perhaps a touch of what Trump wants to see now.
21:47It also, you know, we've heard the threats to Gustavo Petro in Colombia saying you better watch your backside,
21:52saying we're looking at Mexico next, also we're looking at Cuba, as Fraser talked about.
21:57But it also allows for the fact that President Putin is going to watch this, isn't he, and think, well, Ukraine is our hemisphere,
22:04it's our backyard, the same with Taiwan for President Xi.
22:10Yeah, absolutely.
22:11I mean, I think that there's clear threats to any leftist or progressive or nationalist president in Latin America.
22:19The U.S. is sending a clear message that if you don't do what we want, we might come for you.
22:24I think the way that this will play in Latin America could be complicated.
22:29If we think of the case of Brazil, you know, Trump has gone after Lula in the last year and, you know, threatened massive tariffs.
22:36He's supported Bolsonaro.
22:37That's actually helped Lula, the president of Brazil.
22:40It gave him a boost in popularity.
22:42So, you know, the way it plays, there could be an anti-American, anti-imperialist backlash that supports some leftist leaders, supports nationalist leaders.
22:52But absolutely, Trump and Rubio are trying to send a very clear message that if you're not friends with us, if you don't do what we say, we are going to come from you.
23:00And as you and other speakers have pointed out, this, that's a very dangerous precedent for the world and for Latin America that any strong nation, any great power, any empire can do as it pleases.
23:13And weaker states, smaller countries just need to follow along.
23:18And if they don't do that, they will be, you know, pushed to follow along by those more powerful states.
23:24So this is a very frightening new world order that we're entering into.
23:29It's not totally unprecedented, of course, for the U.S. to try to have its way in Latin America.
23:35But this is an agenda of sort of pure naked dominance that Trump is pushing that we haven't seen for a very, very long time in Latin America.
23:44I want to look at that in more detail, particularly on Cuba, Gabriel.
23:48I also look at how it's splitting the MAGA movement as well.
23:50I just want to bring up to date with the fact there's a lot of information coming in, given the scale, given the consequences of this.
23:55In fact, a joint statement in the past few minutes from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Spain as well, saying that they, quote, collectively reject any outside bid to control Venezuela.
24:05That statement just coming in.
24:07We're also hearing, as Fraser mentioned a short while ago, the administration behind Trump doing various interviews today.
24:13Let's take a listen to one of them, the Secretary for War, Pete Hegseth, talking to CBS a short while ago.
24:17We spent decades and decades and spent purchased in blood and got nothing economically in return.
24:26And President Trump flips the script.
24:28He says through strategic action, we can ensure that we have access to additional wealth and resources, enabling a country to unleash that without having to spend American blood.
24:39That was Pete Hegseth. We're also hearing in Venezuela, just after the aftermath of this capture, the rendition of Nicolas Maduro in the early hours yesterday.
24:49This is also about the war of optics, information.
24:52We're seeing that even from watching Nicolas Maduro in his arrest and those moments in front of camera, putting his thumbs up, giving that positive optics that he is still the leader, even though he's deposed.
25:03I want to also hear from Vladimir Padrino. He's a defense minister in Venezuela. He's been also talking to the press in the past short while.
25:10We are grateful for the prompt response of almost all the governments of the world and the peoples of the world, because we saw popular demonstrations everywhere and legitimate governments, with a few exceptions, rejecting this gross intervention in Venezuelan sovereignty.
25:32Let the world take note, because this represents a serious threat to the global order.
25:37Let's bring in Ketavan Gurdjistani and Hélène as well. First of all, Ketavan, I mentioned the MAGA movement.
25:51This is not universally popular, and it's worth saying that Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's recently fallen out with President Trump, has really made a point of saying this is not the right way to do things.
26:01No, and she put out a pretty long post on X yesterday after the news came out, saying in part that basically the justification of going after Nicolas Maduro because it was a fight against drugs simply didn't hold up to the facts,
26:20because initially we were told it was about fentanyl when Venezuela doesn't really produce fentanyl, and that if we were going after Nicolas Maduro for drugs, then we should go after other cartels in Mexico and other countries,
26:34and also adding the fact that Donald Trump had recently pardoned the former president of Honduras who was convicted and was serving time in jail in the United States for drug trafficking.
26:47So she sort of exposed what she called the hypocrisy of the Trump administration.
26:51She also pinpointed to something that is even more important to some in the MAGA movement, which is the fact that this was exactly everything that Donald Trump campaigned against when he was running for this term in 2024,
27:08that he ran on this idea that the U.S. did not, should not be the policeman of the world, that it was America first,
27:17that they were going to focus on making Americans' lives better, and that spending billions of dollars to go and bring democracy around the world or get involved in other countries was not the way to do it.
27:30And so she is one of the voices that is coming out against Donald Trump and this attempt to take control of a foreign country.
27:41She is obviously a minority, as you reminded our viewers, she has also had a falling out with Donald Trump,
27:48but she does represent a certain fringe of the MAGA movement that is ideologically very opposed to any form of intervention abroad,
27:59whether it's in the Western Hemisphere, whether it's in the Middle East, whether it's helping Israel, whether it's helping the Ukrainians.
28:07They simply believe that it is not the Americans' business to spend money helping others when they could be helping their own countrymen.
28:16That's basically the ideology, and that is what she's going after.
28:20And there are a few other Republicans who are pointing to that.
28:23Some Republicans are also pointing to the fact that maybe, especially those in Congress, are saying,
28:28well, maybe you should have come and asked us first, because it is, in the end, Congress's role to sort of give the authority to the president to go to war with another country.
28:40But I think what is going to be interesting domestically in the coming days and weeks is how this is going to play out with the MAGA world more broadly,
28:50now that we've clearly seen that this is not just a one and done, we go in, we get Nicolas Maduro out, and then we're done.
28:58If you are going to say, we are taking over Venezuela, we are going to run the country,
29:04how is that going to play out with those Americans who wanted Donald Trump and who believed Donald Trump when he said,
29:11we're not going to get involved in forever wars, we're not going to get involved abroad?
29:16We also see, just while we're on air, it's worth saying this, Ketavan, this is coming from AP,
29:22saying that the US won't govern Venezuela, but will press charges through oil blockades.
29:27This is from Marco Rubio a short while ago after Trump's claims of running the country.
29:31So we seem already, things are starting to unwind a little bit as we start to unpick the press conference.
29:36Hélène, interesting, maybe not surprising that the rhetoric is different to the reality, or at least it's changing.
29:42Marco Rubio now saying that the US won't govern.
29:46Yeah, I think it was never to be the case.
29:52I think this is not about restoring democracy.
29:56I'm not, you know, I'm convinced that Donald Trump and his administration are not concerned at all about this.
30:03They are just concerned about seizing the world's largest petrol resource.
30:10I think it's far greater, even than what Saudi Arabia has.
30:14And I think, you know, in his speech, Donald Trump has used the term petrol 20 times.
30:18So I think that was his objective.
30:23I also believe that while the military operation was impeccable, if you like, from the point of view of the result,
30:33I think there must have been a great level of collusion and preparation for it.
30:39But while, you know, we have no doubt to believe the talents of the intelligence American services,
30:50I do believe that somehow some agreement was passed.
30:54Maybe that, you know, the military will, you know, rule the country or the vice president will remain in place.
31:05And I think what the biggest concern for the Trump administration is for the American oil companies to take hold of the resources
31:18and thus having the United States somehow weakening China, which I think gets 80 percent of its own oil from Venezuela
31:32and also Russia, because we're going to see great movements as to the price of oil.
31:37And if you remember, you know, the war in Ukraine is funded mainly by the oil and gas exports by Russia,
31:48which today is under sanctions, but still happening.
31:52So what we have there is something which is much bigger.
31:56And of course, Donald Trump, by kind of saying, look, I haven't changed the government.
32:01It was just, you know, we captured the president of that country.
32:06So therefore, we didn't have to go to Congress.
32:08We didn't declare war on Venezuela.
32:11And that's why we today have, you know, the Venezuelan people telling, being told, sorry,
32:18that they have to go about their own business, you know, as usual.
32:22So I think, you know, that's why we see this change as well, because, you know,
32:27it's not about the United States ruling Venezuela.
32:31And indeed, if we go back to Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, I mean, what did the Western operations,
32:38military operations achieve in those countries, if not just chaos and certainly not the restoration
32:45of democracy in none of these countries?
32:48So I think, you know, if they were to do that with Venezuela, it might end up with the civil war.
32:54And I think it will be a big mess for the Americans.
32:57A big mess for the Americans.
32:58We are still getting information coming through, Elaine, not just from the Marco Rubio saying
33:04that we won't govern Venezuela.
33:06President Trump has given an interview with Atlantic magazine saying this,
33:08Venezuelan vice president, Delce Rodriguez, if she doesn't do what's right, quote,
33:14she will pay a bigger price than Maduro.
33:16We're going to hear in a moment, I want to bring in Mikey Kay in London,
33:19he's a renowned military analyst, he's presenter of BBC's security brief programme as well,
33:23the security brief.
33:24Before that, I wanted to hear again from Gabriel, Gabriel Hetland, author of Democracy on the Ground,
33:29local politics in Latin America's left turn.
33:31Because I want to talk about Cuba as well, Gabriel.
33:33If you look at the oil reserves coming via Venezuela, the quote is, according to AP,
33:39around 25 to 30% of Cuba's total oil, 30 to 40% are its own.
33:45But that's a lot of oil and it's affected already.
33:48The fact that the shipments of oil taken by the Trump administration,
33:51the US actions in December, has seen even more widespread blackouts.
33:56We're talking about a vulnerable potential country here, aren't we?
33:59A vulnerable government, given that Trump is now saying,
34:02you know, we effectively have control of the oil.
34:05How do you see this playing out?
34:06It's a very important aspect of what's happening right now.
34:13Cuba and Venezuela have had an economic relationship where Venezuela has been shipping
34:18significant amounts of oil for, you know, well over a decade to Cuba at very reduced rates.
34:23Cuba has often sold that oil on the open market for
34:26hard currency that they use for all sorts of projects and state uses within Cuba.
34:33And in exchange, they have sent doctors, they have sent a lot of military and security advisors
34:39to Venezuela.
34:41And it's hard to know all the specific details, of course, but it's hard to imagine that that
34:46relationship will continue in any fashion whatsoever at this point.
34:50It's hard to imagine that the Trump administration and Marco Rubio in particular
34:54would allow Venezuela to continue sending oil in any fashion, but particularly at deeply discounted
35:01rates to Cuba.
35:02So that means that Cuba could be looking at a major immediate reduction in oil, and there
35:08could be a total severing of the sort of military and security relationship between Cuba and
35:14Venezuela.
35:15It's important to note that this relationship has deteriorated in recent years.
35:19Venezuela has been sending less oil than it used to before, partly related to its own
35:25economic crisis within Venezuela.
35:27Venezuela, it's not clear if Cuba's military presence in Venezuela has been reduced compared
35:32to what it was some years ago.
35:34But nonetheless, the capture of Maduro, the change in government within Venezuela, is almost
35:40sure to have a major, major and drastic impact on the Cuba-Venezuela relationship.
35:45And we'll have to wait and see to know exactly how that plays out.
35:50But I think it's going to be very significant.
35:53It is very significant.
35:54The other point in this triage of information coming through, it's very hard to actually
35:57just take a breath and actually work out the operation itself, how utterly extraordinary
36:03it was, the speed it was, two hours, 20 minutes.
36:05We want to hear Mikey Kay's perspective on this.
36:08We all want to hear this.
36:09Mikey served in the British Armed Forces for 20 years, flew assault helicopters.
36:12Before we go to Mikey, I just want a quick word with Fraser, because you're looking at
36:16the information coming in, Marco Rubio's comment saying that we don't want to govern Venezuela
36:21in the last few minutes itself.
36:24What's your take, Fraser, as to how things are starting to play out in rhetoric?
36:29I mean, the White House is the chief of rhetoric, and this White House is very good at, you
36:38know, changing headlines and keeping people talking and also diverting people across multiple
36:43different topics as well.
36:45I think it's no surprise that the actual reality of what this is going to look like is very
36:49different to what the White House is saying, very different to what Donald Trump said in
36:53that press conference immediately after the seizing of Maduro, and in reality, it is probably
36:59going to fall to the U.S. to try to influence the regime that is left behind.
37:04But of course, they are keeping up their threats of U.S. boots on the ground and military troops
37:09there as leverage in the Caribbean as well.
37:11But I think if we go back quickly to that Atlantic interview that Donald Trump gave this
37:16morning to my colleague Michael Shearer, it's interesting as well that the other place
37:21he touches on is Greenland.
37:23Once again, Greenland is now back in the headlines.
37:28This as well, after the wife of Stephen Miller, who is Donald Trump's deputy chief of staff for
37:33policy, she tweeted a picture yesterday of Greenland covered in an American flag.
37:38She tweeted that, prompting responses from Denmark, which of course is Greenland's territory
37:46of Denmark. And the Danish ambassador posted about that and saying that it was a sovereign
37:51territory. But once again, Donald Trump is not letting up on this. And in this interview
37:57with the Atlantic, he was asked whether the operation in Venezuela, there should be any
38:04lessons learned for the people of Greenland. And he said it was up to other people to come
38:08to those conclusions. But Donald Trump said, we do need Greenland. Absolutely. We need it
38:13for defense. He said that it was surrounded by Chinese and Russian ships. So once again,
38:18Donald Trump moving on and keeping people talking about different topics to try to, you know,
38:25take the spotlight away from something that he might not necessarily want to talk about
38:29right now as well. So this White House continuing to keep people guessing and continuing to shift
38:35multiple topics and multiple stories at the same time to keep everybody on their toes.
38:40Very interesting. Let's go to London, because the shock and awe of this two hour,
38:4720 minute operation. Let's get the view from Mikey Kaye, renowned military analyst, presenter
38:50of the BBC's security brief program, served, as I mentioned, the British armed forces for 20 years
38:55before going into filmmaking and flew assault helicopters on numerous operational tours.
39:00Joins us tonight. Great to have you on the program with us, Mikey. You recorded a program a month
39:04ago. You predicted this would happen. Tell us about why you could see it coming and how
39:08it actually played out. I mean, that's a very kind intro. When you have the knowledge and expertise
39:19and experience of flying those type of night stalker operations, which I did for numerous years
39:24over Baghdad, working with UK special forces, you get a real understanding of, you know,
39:33attempted regime change in Iraq, attempted regime change in Afghanistan. And you kind of know whilst
39:40technology is evolving, and we'll come on to the technology piece in a moment because the operation
39:46was incredibly sophisticated. I don't think we've ever seen anything quite like it. You understand that
39:53there are some basic tenets of the way that warfare plays out. And if you imagine that the mission
40:01going all the way back to six months, eight months, if the mission was to capture Maduro
40:07in his home territory, then you've got to work backwards off that. What do I mean by that? So you've
40:12got to work all the way through to the very first thing that the US has to do, which is they have to
40:17start getting human intelligence, human, on the behavioral activity of Maduro. There are three
40:23types of intelligence. There's human intelligence, which is usually from an asset or an informant.
40:30There's imagery intelligence, which can do what's called pattern of life, so understand behavioral
40:35patterns. That usually comes from Reaper drones or some form of overwatch that can have long endurance
40:43and just sit up there without being detected and suck up all that imagery intelligence. And that's
40:47through electro optic cameras. It's through thermal cameras. And then you've got ELINT or SIGINT,
40:54signals intelligence. And the signals intelligence piece is also critical when you're building up for
40:59one of these missions. And that's basically listening into telephone conversations, triangulating
41:05whereabouts. And what the US have done is, according to open source reporting, the CIA plant was in there
41:11during the summer of last year. It's building up that picture of behavioral patterns by Maduro. Because
41:18the last thing that you want to do is you don't want to launch a huge mission like that and then not
41:25have the asset or the target in the place that you think that person's going to be. So it goes back a long
41:32way. It starts with the intelligence. The end state is putting up helicopter or aviation assets. In this
41:39case, it was the MH-60 Blackhawks and the MH-47 Chinooks with overwatch of drone overhead. And then the bit
41:48in the middle is what's called suppression of enemy air defense. So the suppression of enemy air defense
41:52is American jets. And as you rightly pointed out, about a month ago, we saw a massive buildup of US
42:01capability inside the Caribbean from the USS Gerald Ford, which is the largest aircraft carrier, largest
42:07warship in the world, displaces 100,000 tons. The ability to launch over 200 sorties from that aircraft
42:16carrier. You then got a buildup of F-35Bs, which are the fifth generation jet inside
42:21Puerto Rico. You've got Reapers and drones going into Puerto Rico. You've got MV Ospreys,
42:26which are troop carriers going into Puerto Rico. And the really interesting bit is you've got
42:30the special forces, the US special forces build up off the coast of Venezuela. And that involves
42:35what's called the, let's say it's a ship that the US have that is specially designed to be able to
42:42launch helicopter missions. And then you've got these helicopters, the Blackhawks and the CH-47s,
42:48which are specifically geared to have a additional special forces capability. So terrain following
42:54radar, refueling probes, et cetera. So it's been a huge buildup in the making. And we can go a little
42:58bit more into the advanced stuff on suppression of enemy air defense if you want.
43:01Let's do it because you take us beyond the layman understanding here, military operations. Your
43:05insight is valuable given your experience as well. Two things interest me in particular. One,
43:10you talk about the technology. I believe F-35s, there was a technology that other countries
43:14just couldn't use in that two hours, 20 minutes in be able to direct its assault on particular
43:21military installations, communication infrastructure, and also your experience,
43:25this is your world, that the heli assault itself, you know, the special force operations in coming off
43:31the aircraft and getting to Maduro. Yeah. So let's start with SEAD, suppression of enemy air
43:38defense. That basically is using military capability to be able to suppress any form of response from
43:48Venezuela. And in this case, the big threat was to the jets was the S-300 missiles,
43:54ballistic counter-air defense, which Venezuela purchased from Russia. Now, the problem with
44:00those is, is that they are mobile, but the problem with those is they've got a huge radar,
44:04very powerful radar on them. So as soon as those systems turn their radar on, that flashes up like
44:10a firework inside the back of a F-18 jet that has got a anti-radiation missile strapped to the side.
44:18And an anti-radiation missile basically is a missile that will lock straight on to that radar
44:24signature from an S-300 and it will, it will go in and it will take that S-300 out. Now,
44:29the Venezuelans knew this. So the Venezuelans were then starting to move the S-300s because the
44:36topography is quite interesting in Venezuela. It's quite hilly. And if it's quite hilly, it means that
44:40you can get a little bit more protection from any air threat. So that's what started happening.
44:45Now, the interesting bit about the F-35 is we know the British use the F-35, the Norwegians have got it,
44:51the IDF have been using it in strikes against Doha and Iran. Historically, or most people think the
45:00F-35 is used for a kinetic platform. Kinetic means dropping a bomb, which it is, and it has been. But
45:07in this particular case, it's also the most sophisticated fighter in the world in terms of
45:12the sensors that it has. So at 20 nautical miles off the coast, you've got a US F-35 acting as a
45:19sensor. And what it's doing is it's tracking the movements of those S-300s in real time.
45:26And then what it's doing is it's passing those real-time updates of GPS locations of the S-300s
45:31to the Tomahawk land attack missiles, which are coming out of either submarines or US warships
45:36based in the Caribbean. So basically, there's nowhere to go. And I can't think back
45:41to any operation. And I've served three tours in Iraq. I've done two tours, Afghanistan.
45:46Afghanistan. I've done Kosovo evacuation operators out of West Africa. I can't think of any other
45:52operation where there was this level of sophistication to be able to target air defenses that are
45:58actually trying to maneuver out the way of the threat. So it was very complex. And it was also
46:05incredibly accurate and incredibly effective.
46:07Before we go into the compound and the Heliosoft itself, I want to go back to Gabriel a second.
46:14Stay with us, Mikey. Gabriel Hetland, who's got many commitments tonight. So thank you for your
46:18time. But I do want to just get a word with you related to this, listening to the operation itself,
46:23what Mikey was saying, Gabriel, which is, you know, you've studied and you know, Latin American
46:30politics, particularly Venezuelan politics very well. When you look at the military infrastructure,
46:35and you look at the fact that's happened so quickly, there's a lot of talk now about the
46:39aftermath and about the concern for the vulnerability of those political prisoners and whether the
46:45authoritarian government would take action. What's your take on that, Gabriel?
46:52It doesn't seem like democracy or human rights is a major consideration of the Trump administration.
46:57None of their actions so far have suggested that they are, you know, allowing the continuation of
47:07the Maduro regime without Maduro. So it's Madurismo without Maduro, which has, you know, critics of
47:14Maduro upset about that, including critics on the left, not just the right wing opposition within
47:20Venezuela. And so, you know, some of the other moves that are happening right now also suggest that
47:25we're not looking at any sort of electoral process starting anytime soon. I think all of the things
47:31that Delcy Rodriguez has done, particularly stepping up as an interim president, they have
47:37declared Maduro to be temporarily rather than permanently absent within Venezuela. And that's a
47:44move that means it doesn't trigger the constitutional requirement to call for new elections within 30
47:50days. Instead, it allows them to rule indefinitely. So as long as that goes on, you could have the
47:57continuation of the same regime, which has a lot of, you know, critiques around human rights, around
48:02civil rights, around, you know, political freedoms as well within Venezuela. And again, there's no
48:10indication that the Trump administration has any real interest in that. It seems like Trump's, you know,
48:16own primary interest in all of this is to have the trophy of Maduro and then also have Venezuelan oil.
48:24The question of democracy, the question of a transition doesn't seem to be on his radar,
48:30doesn't seem to be important. I don't remember, you know, if the word democracy was mentioned at
48:35all in Trump's press conference yesterday, but it certainly wasn't the major theme of the press
48:41conference. And I think that's quite notable. Really good to have you on with us tonight,
48:46Gabrielle. Thank you for your time, Gabrielle Hetland, sociologist, specializing in Latin
48:50American politics and author too of Democracy on the Ground, Local Politics in Latin America's
48:55Left Turn. Still with us, Fraser Jackson, our US correspondent in Washington, DC. Ketavan Gogistani,
49:00our International Affairs editor as well with us, plus French socialist senator Hélène Conway-Mouret
49:06and Mikey Kay as well, the presenter of the BBC Security Brief programme. Hélène, before we leave
49:12you as well, I know you've got commitments tonight. Let me ask you about President Macron's statement
49:17saying in the past, well, since overnight, saying that the 2024 presidential candidate, Edmundo
49:23Gonzalez, should lead a peaceful transition, that the people got rid of a dictatorship. No question
49:29on legal issues for the US. Has he gone far enough? Well, it's a very strange and disappointing
49:37statement by the French president. One expects better as regards the defence of international law
49:45and the violation of the UN charter, which has taken place with the American operation. So
49:53does it go far enough? Well, I think it doesn't go anywhere. That's the problem. And which again
50:03goes back to what I said previously about, unfortunately, Europe displaying its weaknesses
50:09and also being so much centred on the resolution of the war in Ukraine, which obviously is very much
50:18linked with the American commitment to continue supporting Ukraine, that I think the Europeans
50:26are totally entangled in that. And out of fear, out of weakness, whatever, you know, is not,
50:33well, like we're not playing the role we should be playing in this. I mean, what has taken place
50:38there in Venezuela may take place in Cuba. Of course, it's going to please a lot of Republicans,
50:45you know, I mean, if indeed Cuba and Venezuela fall. I mean, these have been thorns really for a long
50:53time in American history to have these countries, you know, standing up to the American domination. So
51:01of course, that will be pleasing to some. But I think overall, what has taken place is not good news
51:09for anybody, for international security, international law, institutions, and so on.
51:16Hélène, lovely to talk to you tonight. Thank you for your time.
51:19Hélène Conway-Mouret. Thank you, French socialist senator. Let's go back to Mikey. Very interesting
51:24to listen to your insight. A question that Fraser and Ketavan, we've been talking amongst ourselves
51:30politically about whether there was possible CIA involvement. Could this take place without
51:34somebody key to having turned on Maduro? And when it comes to that, you know, operation itself,
51:40the heli-assault we were talking about going into that fortress-like building that which we know from
51:43war games that the Pentagon and special forces had a role played this before. Mikey, is your
51:49assessment that this could have taken place without somebody on the ground who turned?
51:56No. The level of information that you need from an informant perspective
52:00on the behavioral habits of Maduro just wouldn't have been there. So the CIA plant, I think the
52:10open reporting on that, I think it's highly likely that that did occur. I think the question is not
52:17whether there was someone on the inside that was being an informant, it's to what extent that
52:23number of people exactly exists. So it was a CIA plant, but also who else was that plant, that asset
52:31talking to, to gather that information over six to eight months? I think that's the interesting
52:37question as to what extent people were involved in this when we're talking about an inside job.
52:43When you look at the ability of the US forces now, and you look at the scale of that operation,
52:49Mikey, is the technology and their ability to surpassing anything, if it happened anywhere,
52:55you know, what chance, the question is, what chance has most country got to the might of the US? If
53:00they want to pick somebody out, is your summary that they could just do it, wherever they are?
53:06I mean, there are so many, there are so many factors that go into that. I mean, having a CVN or an
53:13aircraft carrier, CSG carrier support group, that allows power projection, it allows force
53:19projection. So it just all depends on, you know, the level of capability of whomever the US might decide
53:29to go after next. I mean, there are some bits that change with technology, and there are some bits
53:33that don't. Let me give you some examples. So in order to launch that special forces mission
53:39on a two hour 20 journey, there are four major risks as an aviation commander, which I used to be,
53:47and a pilot in doing a type of operation like that. The obvious one that people think about is,
53:54what is the threat on the ground? Now, I spoke earlier on about the suppression of any air defense,
53:59Tomahawk land attack missiles, taking out S 300s. The S 300 isn't a threat to a low level flying
54:05helicopter. It's what's called man pads, man portable air defense, a really mobile tube that
54:11fits on the shoulder of a soldier and can be launched using a infrared or heat seeking head,
54:18which then targets the engines or the heat source of whatever the target is. So it'd be engines in
54:23the case of helicopters. Now, the Venezuelans bought SA-24 IGLA, that's the NATO code name for these
54:30missiles. And thankfully, when I was operating in Baghdad, there was no known evidence or
54:36intelligence that Al Qaeda had these kind of man pads, which provides you with great relief.
54:44These SA-24 IGLA's also will have a countermeasures capability. So what that means is, is that when we
54:52used to fly, the American soft forces, special operations forces will have the same self-defense
54:57equipment on the helicopters. But the primary one, um, that helps invade a man pad launch missile
55:03is flares. And basically flares will come out of the helicopter pointing forward. And hopefully the
55:09idea of the flare is, is to go into the, into the scope of the IR seeker head and the IR seeker head
55:14then decides to take the flare and not stay on the engine, i.e. decoying the, um, the, the missile away.
55:21So that's an, that's an important one. And that, and there are, and I have seen unverified footage
55:26of man pads being launched at these helicopters. So that's threat number one. If you want to jump in,
55:31um, please do.
55:32No, no, only because, because we're going to, we don't want to crash the program, but you know what?
55:37It is fascinating to get an insight. It's not every day we can go into, to your world, to that world,
55:42to understand the, the operation. Mikey, we will speak again, no doubt in the coming days. Really
55:47appreciate your time. Uh, renowned military analyst, Mikey Kay, uh, presenter of the BBC
55:51security brief program. We'll speak soon. Thank you for your time. Thank you also. Fraser Jackson,
55:55our U S correspondent in DC. Thank you to our international affairs editor. We'll be back
56:00with you both very shortly. Stay with us here on France 24. We'll be back in just a moment.
Be the first to comment