00:00But if we look at the quarterback props,
00:01Fernando Mendoza is expected to be,
00:03who was the Heisman Trophy winner,
00:04possibly the number one overall pick.
00:06217 and a half is his number, Joe.
00:09Ty Simpson's got him at 240 and a half.
00:11Quarterbacks.
00:12Yeah, I mean...
00:13Not a high bar.
00:14No, it's not.
00:15But again, I'm seeing that the rain looks like it stops.
00:19So we still have another four or five hours
00:21before this game plays out.
00:23I don't know if it's sunny,
00:24but if it's just overcast with no rain,
00:27that the drainage system,
00:28the field should be pretty good, you would think.
00:31Again, I don't know.
00:33I'd take a wait-and-see approach.
00:35But if you're asking me which quarterback
00:37has to get to that number tonight,
00:39it's got to be Ty Simpson.
00:40And I know that sounds crazy.
00:42But again, if it's a monsoon,
00:44no, he doesn't have to get there.
00:46If it's a dry track,
00:48he definitely has to get there
00:49because they have no rushing attack
00:51to move the football.
00:53And they didn't have one against Oklahoma.
00:55And they certainly didn't have one against Georgia.
00:57And you have a front seven in Indiana
00:59that is very good against a run.
01:02If they cannot run the football,
01:04that means Ty Simpson early.
01:06I would actually utilize Tempo,
01:08Ryan Williams, and Bernard.
01:10Get those playmakers involved
01:11and see if you can wear down Indiana
01:13because I do feel all things being equal,
01:16Alabama does have a speed advantage on the perimeter.
01:19Looking at the passing yards again,
01:21217.5 as you call it for Mendoza
01:23and Ty Simpson about 240.5.
01:25I look at it like this
01:26because if there's a correlation to the market,
01:28a touchdown favor for Indiana,
01:29which means they're probably supposed to win this game
01:31and maybe extra yardage here for Bama.
01:33I can see Ty Simpson in the second half, Joe,
01:35abandoning the running game
01:36and just throwing it all over the lot.
01:38So if we go down and try to find a,
01:40you know, touchdown props here
01:41for both of these quarterbacks,
01:43one and a half minus 122 for Mendoza.
01:45Ty Simpson to throw two touchdowns,
01:46that's a plus 122 price.
01:48But I don't see passing attempts that are listed
01:51because that should be an interesting one to me.
01:53So let's flip it over, Joe,
01:54to the wide receiver position.
01:55A lot of good wideouts here
01:56and a lot of good options in the marketplace.
01:58Sherratt for Indiana, 56.5.
02:00And a lot of these, like Jeremy Bernard,
02:02I know you love, Joe, 53.5 for him.
02:04You take a look at Omar Cooper Jr., 50.5.
02:06Isaiah Horton for Bama, 36.5.
02:08And then there's Lottie Brooks at 35.5.
02:10And I'm scrolling down here.
02:12Where is my guy, Williams?
02:15Williams is only 30.5, Joe.
02:16He has some cheap numbers in the marketplace here.
02:18You do, you do.
02:19Like, so you're right about Sherratt,
02:22but they were able to get by with just Sherratt
02:24in that game against Ohio State.
02:26They're going to need Omar Cooper.
02:28Omar Cooper was banged up in the first quarter
02:30of the Big Ten championship game.
02:32Again, he had the big play,
02:34touchdown catch against Penn State.
02:37I like his numbers today.
02:38I think he has the potential to break out 60, 70 plus
02:42with Fernando Mendoza.
02:43But for Alabama, as much as I'm on Bernard,
02:47I do feel Ryan Williams has to be the catalyst today.
02:50We've seen him go non-existent in critical matchups,
02:53and Bernard is more consistent.
02:55But he is the explosive playmaker
02:58when he's catching balls over the middle
02:59and when he's scoring touchdowns.
03:02Alabama typically is winning games,
03:04and they have that explosiveness back in their offense.
03:07So give me Ryan Williams to potentially break out today.
03:11And also, like, correlated markets
03:12where how you think this game script is going to go,
03:15which means, again, Joe,
03:15Indiana roughly favored by a touchdown means fourth quarter.
03:18Maybe they don't have to throw the ball as much.
03:19They run the football.
03:20I do think, like, you can look at some players,
03:22like Roman Hendy, 63 and a half is his price point here.
03:26Kalon Black is at 58 and a half.
03:28Then you take a look at Alabama.
03:29You already pointed out, like, Jan Miller's 27 and a half.
03:31Daniel Hill's 35 and a half.
03:33I don't really want to go, like, Mendoza's 18 and a half.
03:35It's hard for me to take quarterbacks in college.
03:37Like, okay, great 30 yards at the half for Mendoza.
03:39Takes two sacks.
03:40Now you don't have that one.
03:41They take a knee at the end of the game,
03:42and you're a shot fighter at that point.
03:43But who do you think you would take a flyer on, Joe,
03:46from the running back position, either team Bama or Indiana?
03:49I'm going to take a shot on Jan Miller.
03:51Again, he's, you know, transferred in from FAU.
03:53Daniel Hill is nice.
03:55He's a physical runner as well.
03:57But, again, they really haven't showcased that.
03:58I just think Jan Miller is a better blocker as well,
04:02especially in third-down situations.
04:03He's been utilized.
04:04If you go through the body of work for Ty Simpson,
04:07when they were winning games in the middle part of the year,
04:10Jan Miller was being implemented in the offense just a little bit more,
04:14was getting multiple touches.
04:16Since he's been banged up, and it really happened, I want to say,
04:19in the Missouri game forward, he's been battling injury one week
04:23after the other.
04:25They haven't been as consistent.
04:27They lost their identity.
04:28So give me Jan Miller in this spot.
04:31But I took him for 40-plus.
04:33Again, that's not a lot.
04:35I mean, in this type of game, if it is going to be somewhat wet,
04:39one slip, you're telling me you can't put – you get one 15-yard run.
04:42Put that foot in the ground, Joe.
04:44Juke the safety on 40 on one pattern.
04:46I mean, one 15, 20-yard run, you're halfway there.
04:48I mean, I think you should have a pretty good day today.
04:52Let's go to those touchdown props, your little pay dirt picks, Joe.
04:54Hemby's a minus 110, Joe.
04:55Everybody else in this game is plus money.
04:57Surratt, plus 100.
04:58Black, plus 115.
04:59Bernard, plus 145.
05:01Cooper, plus 155.
05:02And so on here.
05:03Jan Miller, Joe, plus 210 price.
05:05How about this?
05:06Can I sell you on this?
05:07The double shot.
05:08Jan Miller, Daniel Hill, both plus 210.
05:11One gets in, that's a unit in your pocket.
05:13Yeah, I like – one of the running backs, I think, will get in for Alabama.
05:18Watch, it'll be Ty Simpson.
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