Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Ty Simpson's 2025 Heisman Quest

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00:00If we look at the quarterback passing props in this one,

00:02because Ty Simpson has a legitimate chance to win the Heisman,

00:05that's going to go a long way if he has a very good day

00:07against a very good Oklahoma team and a great defense here.

00:10268.5 is for Alabama.

00:12You take a look at Mateer, 205.5.

00:14So, again, 268.5 is Ty Simpson's number.

00:16We'll do the same game, Joe.

00:17If you had a quarterback to take today at those price points,

00:20they're drastically different.

00:21Do we think Mateer can get into the 220s or higher?

00:24Yeah, I do.

00:24And I think he could potentially throw for two passing touchdowns on Alabama.

00:29I think Alabama has got a good defense,

00:31but I still think they could be exploited over the top.

00:35Deion Burks, you look at some of those wide receivers, could step up.

00:38Oklahoma is averaging 236 passing yards per game.

00:43Mateer does have 19 passing yards, 1,900 passing yards,

00:48only eight passing touchdowns, seven interceptions.

00:51But, again, in big games, he has to step up.

00:54I know they were able to run the football on Tennessee.

00:57I think it's a different type of game plan today.

01:00They need to be more explosive, and that's why I like Oklahoma.

01:03You know, I like me with a little parlay piece of that spot, Joe.

01:05John Mateer, over a half of a touchdown, it was only minus 215, Joe.

01:09If he doesn't throw a touchdown today, they can't win this game, right?

01:12No.

01:12But, again, you know, you look at the game last year.

01:16They win it 24-3 with sub-quarterback play.

01:19Yeah.

01:19Right?

01:20Sub-quarterback play with Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins,

01:24and they shut down Alabama's offense.

01:27So I think that's the one key is that when you look at Brad Venables matching up with DeBoer,

01:31he has a read on him from a defensive perspective.

01:35Now, the offense looks different with Ty Simpson,

01:37but they can't run the football effectively.

01:40They had a much better rush offense last year than they do this year, Alabama.

01:44And you're right about that.

01:45Let's start with that right here.

01:46Let's go to Alabama's rushing game.

01:47And Jan Miller, who missed the first game of the season against Florida State,

01:50I'm like, ooh, that's a bad loss for him, and a bad loss for Alabama

01:53because they actually lost the football game.

01:55But now you're seeing this.

01:55Like, see the graphic, Joe?

01:5739-1⁄2?

01:59Donnie, he's only got 340 yards on the year.

02:00And by the way, that graphic's only 39-1⁄2, Joe.

02:02He's actually down to 36-1⁄2.

02:04Why?

02:05Because –

02:06Is he going to get one carry?

02:07What's going on?

02:07Donnie, Oklahoma's only given up 2.4 yards per rush.

02:11They've held five opponents under 100 yards rushing.

02:15Five opponents.

02:16They're 5-0, and they've won those games by 23 points per game.

02:19Now, I will say, the one offense that exploited Oklahoma was Lane Kiffin

02:25and Ole Miss, but they had a mobile quarterback, right,

02:28with Trinidad Chambliss, and he made big throws over the top.

02:31It's a different offense for Alabama.

02:33Ty Simpson's mobile, but he's going to throw it more times than he's going to run it.

02:37And just regular conventional rushing attacks, they shut down.

02:41So, we'll see how this game plays out.

02:44We talk about styles making fights.

02:46I think Oklahoma's bringing their lunch pail today.

02:49And, again, I think they throw the kitchen sink offensively at Alabama,

02:53and that's why I'm giving them the edge.

02:55Sometimes, Joe, you just have to keep it simple.

02:56The reason I bring this up is, like, the correlation of play is like,

02:59hey, this guy's got to have a good game.

03:00This guy's got to have certain statistics here.

03:02Let me ask you a question about John Matier.

03:03His rushing prop, 35-1⁄2.

03:06Can they win this game, Joe, if he doesn't go over 35-1⁄2 rushing yards?

03:11Yes.

03:11Wow.

03:11Because, again, I think Oklahoma has to be more aggressive in the passing attack.

03:17If you believe Matier is your guy, you're going to look to exploit them over the top.

03:22Think about some of the offenses that were able to move the football in Alabama.

03:26Joey Aguilar had one of the best performances.

03:29Now, granted, he throws the pick six right before the half.

03:32Otherwise, they're in that game from start to finish.

03:34I think Alabama looks to take away Blaylock and the rushing attack.

03:39That's where Matier has to eat.

03:40I think they have to be aggressive.

03:42First and second downs, throwing passes.

03:44You've got a ton of wide receivers if you want action for the Alabama Crimson Tide today.

03:48Jeremy Bernard, you've got Cuevas, you have Ryan Williams, Isaiah Horton, Lottie Brooks at this point.

03:52For me, I probably would take Brooks.

03:53I like the way they integrated the young kid into the offense, 42-1⁄2.

03:56But if there's – forget about both teams, or should I say, just forget about one team or the other.

04:01Whole game scenario, who's your pass catcher here today?

04:04It's Brooks for Oklahoma.

04:05I took him any time touchdown, plus 260.

04:08Did take him over his yards.

04:10For me on the Alabama side, again, Bernard in big spots.

04:14And I know it's Williams lately.

04:16But, again, when we talk about the big games on the schedule, Georgia, some of the others,

04:22it's Bernard stepping up and making plays.

04:24So if I had a better – an Alabama player in the passing attack,

04:28it would be Jeremy Bernard over Williams today.

04:31You take a look at the touchdown market here, Joe.

04:33Everybody here – I'm just looking at FanDuel right now – is plus money.

04:36You have Jan Miller, who barely has any rushing yards, but I guess they're going to use him on the goal line.

04:39Plus 100.

04:40Bernard, plus 125.

04:41And then the first guy for OU shows up is Xavier Robinson at plus 135.

04:45If we do go deep again, Lottie Brooks, plus 310 price.

04:49I think it's one of those games where some of these young wide receivers can step up,

04:51and you're getting good price points for a lot of these kids.

04:53You are, and if you're back in Oklahoma like I am, it's Burks and it's Blaylock with plus money.

05:00I think Blaylock is plus 185.

05:02Keep an eye out for him.

05:04But, again, you know, you look at Matier, if you don't think he's going to get over the rushing yards,

05:08he is, I believe, even money to hit pay dirt.

05:11So we'll see.

05:12I think, you know, Ty Simpson's an option for Alabama as well.

05:15Big games could break your tain, especially in goal line type of situations.

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