- 7 weeks ago
On this New Year special, India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai explores if 2026 is a 'make or break' year for the opposition. Author Tavleen Singh dismisses the Congress as a 'magnificent failure,' arguing the party hasn't rebuilt its structure. Conversely, BJP leader Swapan Dasgupta asserts the ruling party remains dynamic while the opposition lacks tangible issues against the Modi government. Group Editorial Director Raj Chengappa notes that historically, Prime Ministers struggle in their third term, potentially aiding the opposition. However, analyst Ashutosh argues the opposition is battling an 'authoritarian system' with uneven playing fields. The panel also discusses the future of the INDIA alliance and upcoming state polls.
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00:00So let's look first at that political question for a moment now because many believe that 2026
00:06is a make or break year for the opposition. The states that will go to the polls are all states
00:11where the opposition has much at stake. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam are the four
00:15major states. Tavlin Singh, it's one thing to look at Mr. Modi and dissect his failures or
00:21achievements. It's another thing then to compare him to where the opposition stands. Do you agree
00:26this is make or break for the opposition because how weak or how effective the opposition is
00:32is also important for a parliamentary democracy. I totally agree that it is and you know I'm going
00:41to borrow Ashutosh's magnificent failure phrase. It's a very good one. The opposition is our really
00:49magnificent failure and you know they failed again and again. I'm talking specifically of the
00:55Congress Party because it's the only national level opposition party and do you know there was
01:01some momentum. I really believe that without an opposition there is danger of you know of autocracy
01:08there is danger of government not doing its job. So I'm actually very keen on the Congress Party
01:15reviving and I have seen no sign I am really making no sign at all that the Congress Party has done any
01:25introspection about why it fails in election after election after election and why it's now reduced to
01:33is it two states or three states I think that you know they're reduced. They're in power three states and
01:40they're sharing power in two others but three states Himachal, Karnataka, Telangana.
01:45Yeah. Now do you know I'm not going to go to the Darbar. Of course that I've written about that often
01:52and there is that Darbaric culture that hasn't changed but there is no attempt being made in you know in
02:00my view in the past 10 years to rebuild the structure of the party. There was a time when you
02:08would go into a village and there would be a Sevadal worker with a little Gandhi cap on his head
02:14and every time there was some crisis in the village those guys used to be there. They're not there
02:19anymore and it appears that no one has noticed and all that they have done is try to build the image of
02:26the Gandhi family up and you know the Gandhi family has shown that it's no longer able to to be that
02:34kind of you know the goose that lays the golden eggs or whatever. So you know I mean I really think
02:41that a magnificent failure and I don't see any revival. And you don't see much hope you don't
02:48see things changing in 2026. No I think it might get worse because where is the Congress party going to
02:54win? I mean you know Assam maybe but everywhere. Kerala is the state where perhaps they hope to win
03:01but but you're saying that nothing will change materially unless it changes organizationally.
03:07Broadly that's what you're saying and you need a complete reboot of the party. Swapandas Gupta
03:12do you believe this is make or break for the opposition in a sense that Mr. Modi becomes even
03:17stronger as the opposition becomes weaker or as Ashutosh seems to suggest that the opposition
03:23isn't being allowed a level playing field the election commission and other institutions are
03:28being misused by the government? Rajdeep I think each year whenever you do a year ending you'll find
03:37that you'll see it's a make or break for this thing or that thing. So there are challenges for every
03:43institution in India and the opposition is no exception. It's had a particularly bad year in
03:502025. That doesn't mean that the opposition is dead. There's always going to be an opposition in
03:57India. I think really what we are talking about the crisis of the opposition is in effect as Tavlib
04:03quite lucidly argued the crisis of the Congress party. The regional parties are still batting
04:10reasonably strong that Trenumul is going to give a good fight. It may win, it may lose, whatever it is.
04:16The CPM which is basically a regional party and the DMK. These are parties which are still in
04:24and the Jharkar Mukti Mocha somewhere there, the Samajwadi there. These parties are very much there. It's the
04:30problem is that of the Congress party. Now there has been a tendency to believe that the opposition
04:38really depends on the fortunes of the Congress. If that model is taken into account, I think the
04:45opposition is going to have a terribly bad time in 2026. However, if the center of gravity does move
04:52somewhere else, I think we might see the formation of a more fractured, more federal opposition coming
04:59into being. Now, the real problem, I think, and I think this is the point which the opposition has
05:05to confront, is that so far they have not really caught something very, very tangible to attack
05:14Narendra Modi government with. For example, the most important thing which in terms of street politics,
05:21in terms of mobilization, you used to dominate the agenda at one time was something called
05:26the mehengai which we call inflation. Now on that front, the Modi government is a runaway success
05:33and that's deprived the opposition of one of its biggest thing, the question of livelihood which
05:38is big there. So, they have targeted things like the SIR, they've targeted the EVMs, etc.
05:47Basically non-issues which people also feel are non-issues. I assure you that had there been
05:54evidence of widespread malpractices in the electoral arena, India would not have stood still. The fact
06:05that these allegations have by and large been dismissed or belong to a very small group of
06:12people who, you know, like the Congress, you know, the Congress today is being dominated by a set of
06:20little people basically coming from American universities who try to replicate the politics of the
06:27left wing of the Democratic Party in an Indian context.
06:30And I think the results have been completely disastrous for them.
06:34So, you're saying in 2026 the Congress's crisis remains, the regional parties at least have a sustainable model.
06:45India is a very competitive democracy. There will always be challenges to the ruling party and the ruling.
06:53One of the reasons why the BJP always is permanently geared towards electoral battles is that it actually
07:00knows that there are challenges which are likely to come up at every court, you know, from every direction.
07:06And the party must be prepared for that. It's being the readiness to take on, the flexibility to adapt to various situations.
07:14Some of these may be good decisions or they may be bad decisions. We'll only know in hindsight.
07:19But at least there is a lot of activity, dynamism and mobilization within the ruling.
07:26I don't think too many people would object to that. That energy certainly is there in the BJP.
07:35That doesn't seem to be in the opposition. But Sanjay Baru, you wrote an interesting piece the other day
07:39seeming to suggest that in a sense what everyone knows, the Congress's primary problem is organizational.
07:45And unless you decentralize power, how do you revive the Congress?
07:49Do you really see the Congress reviving in 2026, given the fact that there are states like Kerala coming up,
07:55states like Assam, possibly going into 2027, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Congress could well,
08:01if they really put their effort to it, be in power in half a dozen states?
08:05Do you believe that's possible or not? Or do you believe the opposition is going to struggle?
08:10No, well, I think first of all, 2026, the organizational issues cannot be settled that easily.
08:17It's a long haul because the problem goes back several years.
08:21But for the opposition, the strategy really has to be to reinvent the India alliance in a sense
08:29that the Congress, if it focuses only on Assam and Kerala, on winning only in Assam and Kerala,
08:36and works with Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, works with DMK in Tamil Nadu,
08:41and shows that both the DMK and Mamata Banerjee return to power,
08:45then you can actually have a result that motivates the Congress at the end of the year.
08:50But if the Congress tries to get into Bengal and divide the vote there,
08:55or has a demand on DMK, which is unrealistic,
09:00I know that they would be creating problems.
09:03I'm just going to stop you for a moment, Dr. Banu,
09:05because we're having a slight problem with your audio.
09:07I'll come to you back in a moment.
09:09But Raj Chengappa, 2026, year of the opposition, opportunity for the opposition,
09:14you believe, just as 2025, in a sense, the BJP re-established itself after the,
09:20in a way, the disappointment of 2024.
09:24Do you believe the opposition has a chance now to rebuild itself?
09:28Dr. Baru is saying the India alliance has to revive in some form?
09:33You know, Radhi, one is, of course, history.
09:35We know that Mr. Modi is in his third term.
09:37Historically speaking, prime ministers in their third term in India don't seem to do too well.
09:43We saw Nehru, Prime Minister Nehru, when he was there.
09:46And then, of course, the China crisis happened, and things went downhill after that.
09:51We've seen Mrs. Gandhi.
09:52She ran into issues with, in her third term, with Punjab.
09:56And then there was, unfortunately, the assassination that happened.
09:59So, there is always a chance for the Congress and the opposition to start the attack on the prime minister.
10:08And that they should be doing, both in an organized fashion, as well as what we had discussed earlier.
10:13There's plenty of implementation that needs to be done of the various programs that Mr. Modi has done.
10:19And this opposition needs to, as it's done with the vote shorty, can do a lot in terms of looking at all the programs that Mr. Modi has talked about or showcased, or the BJP has talked about and showcased, and expose them for what they are.
10:33Where they are successful, give the government a pat on the back.
10:36But I'm sure there's a lot, when you look at issues that are there in these large programs.
10:42You've seen recently what happened to the prime minister's internship scheme.
10:45India Today itself reported that the kind of response that the government had hoped is not there.
10:52There are a whole lot of schemes that the opposition can do, which is what the opposition should be doing.
10:56But the vote shorty campaign did not result, at least in a state like Bihar, in votes.
11:03So, I'm just wondering whether the opposition needs to focus more on livelihood issues, rather than focus on issues like vote shorty.
11:12It's neither this or that.
11:14I think vote shorty is important.
11:16We are a democracy.
11:17And we can see the impact of that happening in West Bengal, where you have huge numbers being eliminated.
11:23You see it in the other states where SIR is happening, and there is a concern about that.
11:27So, I'm not saying stop that.
11:29I'm saying there are a whole lot of range of issues that you need to look at, which the opposition can play.
11:34And if you take a look at the Congress, since there's been some discussion of that, fair enough, the organizational issues do persist, and that needs to be rectified.
11:42But Congress, again, has a chance.
11:44In Kerala, as you mentioned, they seem to have done well in the local polls.
11:48That's an area they can focus on.
11:49In Tamil Nadu, they have the minor partner, but that's something that they can revive for.
11:54And let's not forget, Rajiv, what I mentioned earlier, there are two big issues that are coming up.
11:59One is delimitation that is going to cause a lot of heartburn, particularly in southern states, and some of the other opposition states as well.
12:06And second, the Finance Commission has to give its support.
12:09And there again, there's a huge disgruntlement among the southern states.
12:12So, you're saying, I take your point, the federal challenge will actually become more and more important.
12:19How do you ensure the federal compact holds?
12:21The question though, Ashutosh, nobody mentioned the elephant in the room, the leadership of the opposition.
12:27Who leads the opposition?
12:29In 2024, it appeared that Rahul Gandhi had emerged clearly as the number one face of the opposition after the Lok Sabha.
12:35Now, as we enter 2026, the picture seems to have slightly changed.
12:40Some believe Rahul Gandhi has gone back to square one.
12:42Others believe he still remains an established face of the Congress.
12:46Do you believe that we will see in 2026, therefore, this leadership question once again having to be addressed by the opposition?
12:55Rajiv, there is no doubt about it.
12:56The opposition is in shambles.
12:58There is no doubt about it.
12:59But I would love to say this.
13:01Rahul Gandhi is the national punching bag.
13:03Anybody who is frustrated with the system goes and hits him and then feels happy that I did my job.
13:08See, the fact of the matter is that we are trying to rediscover opposition in an authoritarian system.
13:15I wish if BJP had been living in that kind of situation before 2014, how BJP would have survived for so long.
13:22And here is the case where the sitting opposition chief ministers are arrested on the eve of election.
13:29The account has frozen.
13:31And every political party in opposition, be a leader, is under the radar of ED, CBI and everything.
13:39And nobody knows who is going to be arrested and who is going to put behind the bar.
13:43And then there is an SIR, the CS electoral issues.
13:47And then we imagine that the opposition should function the way the BJP functioned before 2014.
13:54I wish if the BJP survived because BJP was functioning in a democratic setup.
13:59BJP was functioning in a democratic system.
14:02Now the opposition is functioning in an authoritarian system.
14:05Let's be clear about it.
14:07Now the issue is, the fundamental issue is, I think in 2000, we are reducing our democracy only to the electoral system.
14:16That since BJP is winning, and that's why opposition has lost everything, and we should be sympathetic with opposition.
14:21The fact of the matter is that this was the year where Rahul Gandhi has emerged.
14:25He did three press conferences.
14:27Neither the election commission had the guts, nor the BJP government at the center has any iota of shame.
14:35To ask Kopenly and say, let's inquire these acquisitions Rahul Gandhi has made.
14:42And if he's talking rubbish, he's talking false and fictitious thing, let's finish his political career.
14:48Why there is no investigation?
14:50So you maintain that being an opposition leader in India is not easy.
14:53We are a democracy in recession.
14:55You're heading towards an electoral autocracy.
14:58You believe those trends will continue in 2026.
15:01Am I correct?
15:01Of course.
15:02Broadly?
15:02Okay.
15:03You believe it, those trends will continue.
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