- 1 day ago
This special report analyzes the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) landslide victory in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, where the coalition secured over 200 seats. Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the NDA's win saw the BJP emerge as the single largest party. The program, hosted by Rajdeep Sardesai, examines the key factors behind the massive mandate, including the strategic failures of the Mahagathbandhan, the collapse of the Congress vote, and the significant role of women voters, whose turnout was notably high. Featuring an exclusive interview with BJP strategist and Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the analysis delves into the consolidation of the NDA's social coalition. Experts such as Yogendra Yadav, Manisha Priyam, and Sanjay Kumar discuss the opposition's inability to counter the NDA's narrative, which contrasted development with 'Jangal Raj', and the continued trust voters placed in Nitish Kumar's leadership and welfare schemes.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to our continuing coverage of the big battle for Bihar.
00:19It's been a battle where one side has clearly vanquished the other in a remarkable show of strength.
00:25And the NEMO super show is what we are calling it.
00:29Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi are the new double engine of Bihar.
00:34Maria and I will take you through all the big takeaways on this big election day.
00:39But first, the headlines.
00:42The NDA seals a landslide victory in Bihar by breaching the 200 mark for the first time in 15 years.
00:48With the BJP emerging the single largest party.
00:51Prime Minister Modi slams the Congress in his victory speech for its poor performance hints that the Congress could now break.
01:02While declaring that the BJP's next mission is Bengal 2026.
01:06After Bihar's victory, suspense now over who will become the chief minister.
01:24BJP says NDA allies will pick the new chief minister.
01:27Together, JDU maintains Nitish was and is and will be CM.
01:31Chirag Paswan tells India today, Nitish is his choice.
01:35Tejasvi Yadav fails his biggest leadership test.
01:41Wins his Ragopur seat with 18,000 votes margin after a tight fight.
01:45Rebel brother Tej Pratap takes a Felasvi.
01:48Felasvi jive.
01:53Congress hits another poll low.
01:55Secures only six seats out of 61 they contested in Bihar.
01:59But goes on now to blame the election commission.
02:01Rahul Gandhi and Congress Chief Karge say they will continue their fight against what they call osis weakening democracy.
02:08So a combination that is Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar have ensured together that they can become a force multiplier.
02:30Perhaps the most bankable political brand that Bihar's political theatre has seen.
02:37So what are the big takeaways of this election?
02:40An election similar, one would say, the victory similar to 2010 of Nitish Kumar.
02:47Here's that story.
02:48Okay, so let's give you a sense.
02:53It is very clear that high voter turnout could also mean pro-incumbency.
02:59We have often been saying that in the context of Bihar, don't predict whether sometimes it has meant a vote in favour of the return of the incumbent.
03:07Sometimes it is anti-incumbent.
03:09But this time around, what it has proved is that this jodi, which is clearly laughing because they have had the last laugh here,
03:16Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Modi can ensure that they can cut anti-incumbency of 20 years, which was in this case non-existent.
03:27It's a pro-incumbency vote in favour of Nitish Kumar.
03:31It's a big nod, certainly, of approval of Prime Minister Modi in Bihar.
03:36Let me give you some statistics.
03:382014, the BJP and the Prime Minister Modi swept Bihar.
03:432019, again, the BJP and the NDA ensuring a significant victory.
03:482024 as well.
03:50And in terms of Assembly elections, it was 2020 and then 2025.
03:55So five elections in which Bihar has imposed faith in brand Narendra Modi.
04:02Rejasvi Adav has failed his biggest leadership test.
04:04Clearly, he was contesting on 143 seats, was declared as the chief ministerial face, but he could not really pull through.
04:13What is becoming, what's going to be even tougher for the JSP, one would say, is what holds, what is next for him?
04:21Where does he go from here?
04:22PK's Jansh Suraj actually flops in its debut.
04:25But let's give it to Prashant Kishore.
04:27He did put in a lot of effort in those three years that he has been traversing Bihar.
04:33And Congress has been downgraded to single digit.
04:36One would say it is a score similar to that of MIM.
04:40Now, look at another.
04:42The issue is, RJD's Yadav bastion has been breached by NDA.
04:46What I will put a little differently, the way it has happened is that the Yadav constituency firmly with Tejasvi Yadav,
04:54because if you look at the numbers, the vote share, the Mahagat Bandhan has polled in similar vote share that they got last time around.
05:01In fact, it has increased by 1%.
05:03It is that they have failed to expand beyond that.
05:08RJD's Yadav bastion not really breached, but they have not gone beyond it.
05:12And NDA's focus on RJD, Jungle Raj, has certainly worked on ground.
05:18And Niteesh's strongest block is Mahila.
05:21The Mahila of Bihar have voted for Niteesh Kumar again.
05:24And the 10th big takeaway is that Rahul's vote-tory narrative falls flat on the ground.
05:33Ravdeep.
05:34Each and every of those takeaways, I think, call for serious introspection for all parties
05:39and celebrations, of course, for one side.
05:43Because clearly, Indian politics is changing very, very fast.
05:47You cannot practice politics in 2025 like you did 25 years ago also.
05:53Intensely competitive emergence of new blocks.
05:56None more important than the Mahila.
05:59We've been saying this again and again.
06:008.8% rise in voter turnout among women.
06:05And the schemes that were designed for women, including controversy according to some cash
06:10transfers just before elections, which were called vote-kharidi by the opposition, all of
06:16which changed perhaps the way the game was fought.
06:19But also the resources, the organization, and the preparation that the NDA made was in sharp contrast to that of the opposition.
06:29Politics in India has therefore, as I keep saying, changed dramatically.
06:34What does this mean for electoral politics?
06:37I'm joined by Surjit Bhalla, who, apart from being an economist, has also been a bit of a cephalogist.
06:43He's written books on how voting patterns in India take place.
06:48Joined by Yogendra Yadav, co-founder of Swaraj India, one of India's original cephalogists as well.
06:53And we are also joined by Amitabh Tiwari.
06:58Amitabh is someone who, of voter vibes, actually tracked this election very, very closely.
07:04I want to come to each of you first for your preliminary observations.
07:07Am I right, Surjit Bhalla, in saying what the BJP has done is changed the rules of the way elections are now fought,
07:15made it much more competitive?
07:16You and I love cricket, so it's a bit like Virat Kohli now making sure that fitness is required to win a test match or to play for India.
07:26Similarly, Modi Shah have said, you want to fight us, you're going to have to have a perfect strategy.
07:33You know, to extend the cricket analogy, you had on your show that the Jashri was clean-bowled,
07:45Rahul retired hurt.
07:48So I want to ask you, what will it take for you to put on the screen that Rahul has been clean-bowled?
07:58That's what the problem is.
08:00So if we want to look at this election, clearly there was performance on the part of the NDA
08:08and demonstrated performance, especially on the part of Nitish, for the last 20 years.
08:16On the other hand, you have two dainas, both from dying parties, coming up in competition.
08:25So I think it was a complete lack of competition that allowed this 202 NDA victory.
08:34Okay, so it's interesting the way you're posing it.
08:36Yogendra Niyadav, you want to respond.
08:38Do you believe, therefore, the opposition has failed to understand how you've got to combat the Modi Shah juggernaut,
08:44whether it's in terms of widening your social coalition,
08:47whether it's in terms of ensuring that on the ground there is a clear narrative that you're putting before the people,
08:53and actually building bottom-up from the boot level,
08:57rather than Neta's flying in and parachuting from the top,
09:01all of which may in different ways have hurt the opposition?
09:07Rahul, continuing with the sports analogy, there is absolutely no doubt BJP has changed the rules of the game.
09:14If you were to take the analogy of exams, you know, there were days in which you and I used to take exams.
09:20You read the textbook, you revised the class notes, you went and did exams.
09:25Today, you go to quota.
09:27And you, of course, also look for the right center where you should be, you know,
09:31where your examination should be located.
09:34This is exactly how the BJP has changed rules of the election.
09:37It's a different kind of election or the kind of things Australian cricket did, you know,
09:42which simply changed the way cricket was being played, most of which was fair.
09:47Some of it was foul as well, as we know.
09:50And while we are on the cricketing metaphor, let's not forget the role of the umpires
09:54and how the role of the umpires has changed from being a referee
09:58to being people who are seen to be players as well.
10:03But forget the metaphor now and focus on the real thing.
10:06To my mind, it was quite clear right from the beginning that NDA had an advantage in this election.
10:15They had an advantage because their political coalition was always bigger than Mahagarbundan.
10:21The social pool from which they drew was also bigger than Mahagarbundan.
10:26And as you rightly mentioned, I think Maria mentioned, women voters,
10:31their consistent targeting of women voter has changed the rules of the game for the good.
10:37I mean, I really think it's a welcome development for democracy.
10:39Today, it may have been done with foul means.
10:42But tomorrow, once women voters, you know, rise as voters in their own right,
10:48then it is good for democracy.
10:49So, these things have changed, however.
10:53So, therefore, I mean, you know, the victory of the NDA does not surprise me.
10:59But the margin of victory, 9%, 9% to 10% gap when I checked last, 200 plus votes.
11:07Rajdeep, you would remember 2,000 ton.
11:10You and I should remember it particularly because we worked in the same channel at that time.
11:14It was CNN and IBM.
11:15You would recall I came back from Bihar and said, I think we made a forecast saying NDA is going to get more than 200 seats.
11:25And you would recall your own Hindi colleagues refused to take it.
11:29And they said, nah, Baba, this is impossible.
11:32But Rajdeep, you would remember we traveled during that election.
11:36That is an election where whichever household you went to, and I traveled a lot,
11:41everyone said, in the last five years,
11:44mere gaon ki tasweer badalti hai.
11:46Sada ka a gai hai.
11:48Nalkoop a a gaya hai.
11:49School behter hai.
11:51Did you hear that kind of a thing?
11:53I agree that there was nothing.
11:54I'll tell you what we heard.
11:55I'll tell you what, Yorindra Ji.
11:58But did you see something like that?
12:00I'll tell you what we heard.
12:02No one that I met, and that surprised me.
12:04Very few.
12:05I mean, I would want to use the word no one.
12:07That would be unfair.
12:08But very few, very few that I met were angry with Nitish Kumar.
12:13Or were not willing to give him the benefit of doubt.
12:16There was a trust factor.
12:18One of his classmates said,
12:20Nitish ji hai kuch nahi bigaada hai.
12:23There was basically a sense of trust and credibility.
12:26And therefore, I came away convinced there was no anti-incumbency.
12:30But Amitabh Tiwari, taking off from what Yorindra Yadav said,
12:34you and others, many pollsters,
12:35pitched the numbers at 135 to 145.
12:38It's gone up to 200.
12:40As that surge is what many were caught unguarded with,
12:46that there was a silent voter out there who said,
12:49we choose Nitish over the Yadavs.
12:53That's what they decided.
12:55And that social-political coalition was very large.
12:57Did you underestimate particularly the Mahila vote
13:00and the strength of that political-social coalition?
13:04Yeah, essentially, I mean,
13:05it is very, very difficult to catch this kind of a wave.
13:08Because even in Maharashtra, if you remember,
13:11a three-fourth majority was achieved by the Mahayuti.
13:14And this, as you are saying,
13:15is rightly because of the fact that a lot of the EBC,
13:20lower EBC, smaller EBC groups,
13:22voters are relatively lesser polled in any survey.
13:26And also, it seems that the Mahila vote
13:29from the core vote block of the Mahagadbandan,
13:33which is the MY,
13:34also seems to have voted silently in some seats,
13:38especially where the JDO was contesting
13:41in favour of the NDA.
13:42So, this switch is also very, very difficult to catch
13:45because if there is a 10% vote share lead for the NDA,
13:49which means that at least there is a 15 to 20% lead
13:55for the NDA amongst the women,
13:57even if you assume that there was a good amount of support
14:02for the Mahagadbandan amongst the males,
14:05especially the youth.
14:07Yes. So, are we then, Yogendra Yadav,
14:10back to the old theory
14:12of Nitish Kumar's voters being silent?
14:16If it is this, you know,
14:17because this kind of surge is about,
14:19again, we are looking at some kind of silent voters,
14:22but this time, the silent voters of Nitish Kumar
14:24were emphasising on the contributions that he has made.
14:27They were talking about his welfare schemes.
14:29So, are we then going back to saying
14:32that EBCs are against silent voters?
14:34Maria, this must be a very new theory
14:38because what I just reminded Rajdeep,
14:402010 is almost identical success of NDA.
14:44We were doing polling at that time.
14:47I personally did not find any silent voters.
14:50We came back, we reported and said,
14:51look, this is what's going to happen.
14:53Rajdeep was good enough to put it out on air.
14:56Any other editor may not have put it out on air.
14:58And we were proven right.
15:00I do not think Nitish Kumar's voters are silent.
15:04And if they had no reason to be silent in 2010,
15:07they have much less reasons to be silent in 2025.
15:11Why would they have any reason to be silent?
15:13Central government with Nitish,
15:15he is in power locally.
15:17They have no reason to be silent.
15:19Would we consider another thing
15:20that everyone is talking about,
15:23that the opposition in this country is talking about?
15:25I am not saying this is proven,
15:29but should we not even look at the possibility
15:32that while NDA's lead was real
15:37and with good reasons,
15:40this lead has been mixed with some steroids?
15:43I do not know what...
15:43No, no, give a...
15:44I want to...
15:45You see, Yogendra Yadav,
15:48when you say the NDA's lead
15:49has been mixed with steroids,
15:51we need proof of that.
15:52There has been this allegation of vote chori.
15:56When I look at the SIR list
15:58and it was a valuable effort
16:00to try and make sure
16:01that the election commission
16:02did not remove any legitimate citizens.
16:06When I look at the numbers,
16:08at the end of the day,
16:09you could argue that that did not...
16:11That was not...
16:12SIR was not responsible
16:13for this scale of victory.
16:15In fact, we travelled across BR,
16:16we didn't even hear about SIR.
16:18It was just not registering.
16:20So, if the...
16:21What are these steroids?
16:22What are the steroids that you're saying?
16:24I can appreciate you saying
16:2510,000 rupees were allowed.
16:28My belief is 10,000 rupees were allowed
16:30even while the Code of Conduct was going on.
16:32In fact, just before voting.
16:34Is that the steroid you're speaking about?
16:37So, it's a metaphor
16:39and let me unpack it.
16:40It's a very fair demand.
16:41When I say steroid,
16:43I mean things other than the popularity
16:45and straightforward,
16:46you know, things that you normally
16:48are allowed to do
16:49to contest the election
16:50and do everything.
16:51Number one,
16:53blatant use of state power.
16:56Number two,
16:57money,
16:59massive use of money.
17:01Number three,
17:03completely partisan media,
17:05not only in Delhi,
17:06but Bihar Patna as well.
17:08Number four,
17:10election commission,
17:11which played completely partisan.
17:13Let me illustrate it.
17:15This 10,000 rupees thing.
17:17Yes,
17:18it started in Madhya Pradesh,
17:19but started as a scheme,
17:21a monthly scheme,
17:22which was rolled out initially
17:24in Madhya Pradesh.
17:25That was not fair,
17:27but at least it pretended
17:28to be a scheme.
17:30What happened in Bihar
17:31is straightforward
17:32pre-election bribe,
17:34which the election commission
17:35simply watched
17:36and many of the installments
17:39were delivered
17:39when nomination
17:41had been finished.
17:43I call it straightforward bribe.
17:44Can I take it to Mr. Bhala?
17:48You know,
17:48you're making a very serious
17:50allegation.
17:51You're not the only one.
17:52Many people have made it.
17:53I've also questioned
17:54that scheme
17:55because I believe
17:56direct cash transfer,
17:57Surjit Bhala,
17:58of the manner
17:59they were made now
18:00is very dangerous.
18:01Look at the fiscal health
18:02of Bihar
18:03and many other states.
18:04If just before the election,
18:05you're just going to throw money.
18:07It's not a scheme.
18:08It was money.
18:09Nitish's scheme
18:10was Jivika Didi.
18:11That was a legitimate scheme
18:12of self-help groups.
18:14Now it was money.
18:15Do you agree with Yogendra Yadar
18:17that the election commission,
18:18the media,
18:19should have asked
18:20many more questions?
18:21Otherwise,
18:22it's actually a capture
18:23of the state.
18:24I'm not going to use
18:24the word steroid,
18:25capture of the state.
18:26It may be legal,
18:28but it's not ethical.
18:29Look,
18:31I happen to believe
18:33and I have tried
18:35to substantiate it
18:36that the 10,000 rupee
18:38bribe,
18:40dole,
18:41freebie,
18:42whatever you may call,
18:44had nothing whatsoever
18:45to do with this result.
18:49So, in other words,
18:50the burden
18:51is on Yogendra Yadar
18:52and others
18:53to show how much,
18:55and he's a practicing
18:57and a very sophisticated
18:58sophologist,
19:00let him come up
19:01with some documentation
19:03as to the effect
19:05of this 10,000 rupee.
19:07Was it ethical?
19:09Was it ethical?
19:10Forget about what impact.
19:11Do you believe it is?
19:12You're an economist.
19:14I look at the fiscal debt
19:15that many states are facing.
19:17Now every chief minister
19:18is going to do this.
19:19Three days before
19:20the Model Code of Conduct,
19:21I will put up
19:21a similar scheme
19:22and EC will have to accept it
19:24because you've set
19:25a dangerous precedent.
19:27Yeah, you're talking
19:28to the wrong guy
19:29because I happen
19:30to also be
19:31completely opposed
19:33to this 10 people.
19:35I'm arguing.
19:36So I'm completely opposed
19:37to this freebie.
19:38And indeed,
19:39the Prime Minister Modi
19:40has made several points
19:42on several occasions,
19:44has said that he doesn't
19:46believe in freebies.
19:47This is the ultimate freebie.
19:49They may couch it
19:50in terms of
19:50this is self-help investment,
19:53but it's a freebie
19:54and it shouldn't be there.
19:55So let's,
19:56you know,
19:57all I'm asking for,
19:58so I'm completely opposed
19:59to it,
20:00just like you are.
20:01So that won't get us anywhere.
20:03What we need to analyze
20:05is what made
20:07the NDA
20:08win so significantly.
20:12And I think
20:12the 10,000
20:13had nothing to do with it.
20:15So what was the key factor
20:18according to you?
20:19Yeah.
20:20Voters vote
20:21on performance
20:22and expected performance.
20:26Now,
20:26in the case of Nitish
20:28and Bihar,
20:29there is 20 years
20:31of performance.
20:33One election
20:34after another,
20:35he has won.
20:37So we know that.
20:38On the other hand,
20:39you have
20:40the opposition
20:41coming in
20:43and they have
20:44nothing to offer.
20:46Literally
20:46nothing to say
20:47that,
20:48listen,
20:48this is what we'll do,
20:50therefore vote for us.
20:52So that's what
20:53the people saw.
20:55I want to relate
20:56one incident
20:57on my travels
20:58in Bihar,
21:00which I think
21:01illustrates
21:01what has gone on.
21:04So
21:04there was only
21:05one person
21:06I met
21:07on the entire trip
21:08who said
21:10she would vote
21:11for the Congress.
21:13One person.
21:14Okay?
21:15And
21:15she was somewhere
21:16in the late 40s.
21:18She had three daughters
21:19next to her.
21:21And once she said
21:22that she was going
21:23to vote for Congress
21:24and Rahul,
21:26her daughter
21:26started laughing.
21:28Okay.
21:29So this is,
21:30you know,
21:31basically,
21:31I don't think
21:33Rahul Gandhi
21:34has any credibility
21:36as a politician
21:37and neither does
21:39the Jashri.
21:40that's what
21:41determined
21:41this election.
21:43They had no
21:44credibility
21:45whatsoever
21:46as politicians.
21:47So you are
21:48essentially saying,
21:49Mr. Bhalla,
21:50that there was
21:51a weak opposition,
21:52but there was also
21:53everything going right
21:54on the side
21:55of the NDA.
21:56The fact is
21:57that there are
21:57multiple issues
21:58at play here.
21:59It's a multifaceted
22:00election and the
22:01reason why
22:02Nitish Kumar
22:02has won
22:03is not just
22:04about welfarism.
22:06There is also
22:06the broader
22:07caste coalition,
22:08the social coalition
22:09that we speak
22:09about in the
22:10context of Bihar.
22:11But, you know,
22:12that point that
22:13has been made
22:14with regards to
22:14the role of
22:15the opposition,
22:15a weak opposition
22:16can lead to
22:17this kind of
22:18landslide as well
22:19because they do
22:19not have their
22:20house in order,
22:21Amitabh Tiwari.
22:23Look at this
22:23number.
22:24Mahagat Bandhan
22:25is at 35.
22:27The Congress
22:27scorecard is
22:28similar to that
22:29of MIM.
22:30And as we
22:31welcome Sanjay
22:32Kumar and
22:32also Manisha
22:33Priyam on
22:33this broadcast.
22:36See, I
22:36draw parallels
22:39to the
22:40Maharashtra
22:41verdict.
22:41If you recall,
22:42even in
22:42Maharashtra,
22:44the MVA
22:44partners continued
22:45to fight
22:46amongst themselves
22:47as to who
22:48will be the
22:48CM chair.
22:49Uddhau Thakere
22:50kept on
22:51pressurizing the
22:52Congress and
22:53the NCP to
22:54declare him as
22:55CM face.
22:56That didn't
22:57happen.
22:57the ticket
22:58distribution
22:58also was
22:59delayed there
23:00compared to
23:01the BJP or
23:02the NDA
23:03partners which
23:04declared the
23:05tickets earlier
23:06compared to
23:08the MVA.
23:10So there is a
23:11parallel and it
23:12seems that the
23:13opposition or the
23:13India Block did
23:14not take lessons
23:15from that verdict.
23:17Of course,
23:18when the
23:20Tejasvi Adav
23:20announced this
23:21Sarkari job
23:23scheme for each
23:24household, I
23:26think then is
23:27where some of
23:28the credibility
23:28which he
23:29enjoyed amongst
23:31the youth seems
23:32to have lost
23:32because there
23:33was no
23:33calculations to
23:34back that
23:35claim and
23:36even his
23:36hardcore
23:36supporters, I
23:38feel, would
23:38not believe in
23:39this promise of
23:40giving a
23:41Sarkari job or
23:42a government
23:43job to each
23:44of the
23:44households.
23:47Manisha
23:47Priyam joining
23:48us.
23:48Manisha
23:49Priyam, the
23:50scale of the
23:50victory, we
23:51were talking
23:51about exit
23:52poll, no
23:52exit poll
23:53predicted this
23:54scale.
23:54Are you
23:54surprised?
23:55Do you
23:56believe this
23:56is a
23:56tectonic
23:57change as
23:58some are
23:58saying that
23:58caste identities
23:59have melted
24:00away, gender
24:01has replaced
24:01it or is
24:02it, as
24:03others are
24:03arguing, that
24:04just the size
24:05of this
24:05coalition, add
24:06the EBCs at
24:0726%, add
24:09the Dalits,
24:11particularly the
24:11past ones, add
24:12the forward
24:13caste and
24:14you are already
24:14well over 40%.
24:16The sheer size
24:17of the social
24:18political coalition
24:20of the NDA
24:20meant that they
24:21were always going
24:22to win big.
24:22look Rajdeep, let
24:29me be very
24:29honest, I
24:30always believed
24:31that the NDA
24:32had an edge, an
24:34advantage, but I
24:36also saw on the
24:37field that the
24:39MGB was also
24:40holding on.
24:41There can be
24:42many ways, no
24:44doubt, this scale
24:45is absolutely
24:46amazing, it's
24:47immense and there
24:49are various ways
24:50of interpreting
24:51this, one of
24:52which is to see
24:53it in terms of
24:55electoral strategies,
24:57the skills, etc.
24:59And I clearly
25:00saw the BJP and
25:02the JDU fight
25:03two different
25:04elections.
25:05Remember, the BJP
25:06was fighting the
25:07Magad-Shahabad region
25:09with the CPIML
25:10really as its main
25:12foe there and
25:13looking at caste
25:14based coalitions
25:15and caste politics
25:17of the Ati
25:18Pichras to be able
25:19to Trump on the
25:20left and in that
25:21sense, the RJD
25:22which was relying
25:23mainly on the
25:24CPIML to give
25:26it that region, I
25:27think that got
25:28unstuck.
25:29So they were
25:30left in the
25:31trenches without
25:32having a larger
25:33cover to be able
25:34to handle, you
25:37know, the great
25:37strategy and the
25:38great coalition of
25:39the BJP in the
25:40Magad-Shahabad region.
25:41The JDU, on the
25:42other hand, had its
25:43own rallies.
25:44Remember, the
25:45manifesto release
25:47was done for
25:48barely a few
25:49minutes, no
25:50speeches together.
25:51The Prime
25:51Minister's Patna
25:52road show also
25:53did not have
25:53Nitish Kumar on
25:54it.
25:55So two different
25:56electoral strategies,
25:57two different
25:58elections, but the
25:59real thing that was
26:00done was really
26:01notching up all
26:02the smaller allies,
26:04giving the BJP,
26:05which has a
26:06conventional image of
26:07being an upper
26:08caste party, not
26:10so many Brahmins in
26:11Bihar, but the
26:12Bhumihar, Rajputs,
26:14I'm just going to
26:14stop you there for
26:15a moment.
26:16You know, I'm just
26:17going to stop you
26:18for a moment and
26:19I'll come back to
26:19you also, Sanjay
26:20Kumar, because we've
26:21got a very special
26:21guest joining us and
26:23to all our guests
26:23I'll come in a
26:24moment because
26:25Dharmendra Pradhan is
26:26one of the men of
26:27the match.
26:27There are lots of
26:28people who do it
26:29behind the scenes.
26:30He doesn't come in
26:31the forefront, but
26:32he's won a second
26:33big victory, Maria.
26:34Triumph in
26:35Haryana, now in
26:36Bihar.
26:37Congratulations,
26:38Dharmendra Pradhan
26:38Ji.
26:39Also 2010,
26:40Bihar.
26:41Yes, and I spoke
26:42to you, I remember
26:42a few days ago, did
26:44you anticipate 200
26:46plus, those so
26:47par, 202.
26:48I want an honest
26:49answer.
26:50Is this even beyond
26:51your expectation?
26:56Ajdebji, may not
26:57be in the numbers,
26:58but I was expecting
26:59after the voting,
27:00the kind of vote
27:01pulled in the
27:03election, I was
27:04confident we're
27:05heading for a huge
27:06victory.
27:07May not be in the
27:07numbers.
27:082010, Bihar being
27:11repeated in 2025,
27:14under the leadership
27:15of the same
27:16election strategist
27:17and election in
27:18charge, that is
27:19Dharmendra Pradhan.
27:21You are satisfied
27:22with this result?
27:23Or are you also
27:24of the opinion,
27:25yeh kiase ho raha hai?
27:26And to add to that,
27:28where did this
27:28confidence come from?
27:29You are saying that
27:30you are confident of
27:31winning.
27:31Where did the
27:32confidence come from?
27:33Because we are
27:38with the people,
27:39we know people,
27:40we are mingling
27:41with the people,
27:41we know the
27:42sentiment of the
27:42people, we are
27:44grounded.
27:45This victory is
27:46dedicated to people
27:47of Bihar.
27:49Nobody is the
27:50clement of this
27:51great victory.
27:51The aspirational
27:52society of Bihar,
27:53as always, they
27:56have achieved a
27:57greater height today
27:58with this result.
27:59They have decided
27:59their own fate, how
28:01the 21st century
28:02will move with
28:03the new leadership,
28:05the kind of
28:06governance and
28:07partner will be.
28:09They have decided
28:09it.
28:10No, but was
28:12there a strategy?
28:12Now, I know you
28:13can't reveal all
28:14your secrets.
28:15Was there a
28:15strategy?
28:16You heard Rahul
28:17Gandhi, he
28:17saying the
28:18election was
28:18not fair.
28:19So they are
28:20accusing the
28:21BJP of, in
28:22particular, of
28:22running an
28:23unfair election.
28:24They have
28:24targeted the
28:25election commission.
28:26You tell us
28:27your strategy
28:28that you
28:29believe was
28:30your winning
28:30formula here
28:31in Bihar.
28:36Rajdeep ji,
28:37Angur
28:38khatte hote
28:39hain.
28:39Yek purani
28:40kahawat hai.
28:41Jab aap
28:41chunao jito,
28:43telenga na mein
28:44wo sahi hai.
28:45Wo chunaay
28:45yok tab sahi tha.
28:46Karnatak mein
28:47jito to
28:47sahih
28:48tha.
28:49Aaj
28:49aap
28:49raastan
28:50ke
28:50anta
28:50shit
28:51mein
28:51jito
28:51or telenga na
28:52ki
28:52aak
28:53bai
28:53lexan
28:54jito
28:54to
28:54sahih
28:54chupiliers.
28:55Sikin
28:55bihar
28:56me
28:56aap
28:56bankrupt
28:57ho.
28:58Aap
28:58kipaas
28:58cadder
28:59nahi
28:59hai.
28:59Aap
28:59kipaas
29:00base
29:00nahi
29:00hai.
29:00Aap
29:00kipaas
29:01ideas
29:01nahi
29:01hai.
29:01Aap
29:02kipaas
29:02commitment
29:03nahi
29:03hai.
29:03Aap
29:04drama
29:05kipaas
29:06hai.
29:06Bihar
29:07kipaas
29:07kipaas
29:10kipaas
29:12par
29:12sato
29:13kipaas
29:21aap
29:23kipaas
29:23kipaah
29:26kipaas
29:28kipaas
29:29kipaas
29:33aap
29:34kipaas
29:35you're saying something very important you're saying your strategy was asking the voters to
29:52contrast 20 years of nitish kumar and nda at the center for the last 10 years with what happened
29:58in the 1990s and 2000s therefore a conscious attack was made you will go to the voters led
30:04with the prime minister led by the prime minister you will speak about jungle raj am i correct
30:08that was the strategy ask the voters to contrast the two yes yes certainly
30:13that was the strategy right down the line yes exactly exactly i agree i agree with your approach
30:23that is our strategy that was our strategy what's wrong with that soon not we remind the
30:29black days of 92-2005 soon not we remind the black days of congress regime in bihar what did they do
30:38to glorious state of bihar he had to stop us from being angry with that is the
30:56foreign
31:24Yes, I am accepting your argument because we have done work.
31:49I always said we are running a social coalition.
31:53Ours is not a political coalition.
31:55Ours is not an opportunistic coalition.
31:59Our coalition is not election-centric.
32:02The mandate of Bihar, the pressure of the society of Bihar, be united.
32:06Be firm on your policies.
32:09This is your social base.
32:11What is our social base?
32:13Sabka Sat, Sabka Vikas, for all.
32:16Till now, we may have got vote of a sizable section of society.
32:20Many of them may not have vote for us, but now our responsibility to development of all.
32:25Prime Minister Bodhi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is committed to this issue.
32:31They have never isolated anyone, anybody.
32:35But there is one controversial issue, Darmendra Ji, which was risen, that 10,000 rupees was given one week before the election.
32:42If everything was, if Bihar was actually on the path of growth, why give 10,000?
32:47Opposition says it's a bribe.
32:49Many believe this was vote kharidi, just before the election.
32:53And you give the money even while the code of conduct is on, just before voting.
32:57Why did you need to do that?
32:59Was that a top-up scheme?
33:01Rajdeep Sardesai Ji, let me clarify one thing.
33:07It was not given during election.
33:09It was an ongoing scheme.
33:10Any welfare government has a right to give, run welfare, social welfare schemes for its citizens.
33:18Yeah, but not one week before the election, sir.
33:19GB government is not a government of Bihar government.
33:20Not at all, not at all.
33:21If every government now gives money before an election, what will happen to the exchequer?
33:30Prime Minister himself has said these are remedies.
33:32Our constitution give us, Rajdeep Ji, our constitution give us guarantee to run welfare scheme just before
33:43announcement of code of conduct.
33:45Bihar government has every right to run a welfare scheme, top-up some welfare projects on their existing scheme.
33:52Jibika is an age-old, decade-old program of Bihar government for women empowerment.
33:58Many more features are there in the Jibika movement.
34:01This 10,000 rupees, there are many more bridges built in Ganga river.
34:06There are many kilometers of roads are developed in Bihar.
34:10I have seen one of your tweet during election campaign.
34:14You have posted something just in front of Bihar museum.
34:17You have appreciated such things.
34:19Many such developmental project has created hope and aspiration from the society of Bihar.
34:24Best museum in the country, sir.
34:25Not only mere single scheme.
34:26It's the best museum in the country.
34:28Museum in the country?
34:29Yes.
34:32Thank you for your appreciation, Rajdeep Ji.
34:34Yeah, it is the best museum in the country.
34:37Can I ask you though, who should I give credit to, Nitish Kumar or Narendra Modi?
34:42We are calling it NEMO, the NEMO factor.
34:45Who should you really give?
34:46NDA.
34:47NDA.
34:48You are a good person to coin a new slogan.
34:55NEMO, it suits you.
34:57I also appreciate that approach.
34:58This is NDA.
34:59Since last 30 years, you are running NDA in Bihar.
35:03After 1996, late Atal Bihari Bajpahi and late Zahar Fonadis have formed the India formulation for Bihar.
35:13Successfully, you are running a socio-political coalition in Bihar.
35:16Credit goes to NDA.
35:18Okay.
35:19Mr. Pradhan, my last question.
35:21From 2010, you are going to Bihar once again.
35:24In 2010, you have won.
35:26In 2015, you have a little setback.
35:28But after that, you have a election in charge.
35:32What was the biggest lesson for you this time?
35:39Bihar's new opinion, Bihar's aspiration, Bihar's progress.
35:45It always inspired me and this time it also increased my learning.
35:49Okay.
35:50I am going to ask you my final question.
35:52You keep…
35:53You won Haryana which many believed was unwinable.
35:56You have now won Bihar by a massive margin and you have had a series of elections where you have been…
36:01You have been the strategist.
36:02So, I ask you, is the next step for Dharmendra Pradhan to become the next BJP president?
36:06Baut affa chal rahi hai Dilli mein ki Darmendra Pradhan could be the next BJP president.
36:13Rajdeep ji.
36:14It will be seen on my party if I claim I own Haryana, I own Bihar.
36:25People of Bihar and Haryana own for their own destiny.
36:28They have decided their repost faith and Prime Minister Modi and respective chief ministers.
36:33I am a small party activist doing my job.
36:36And today is the day of celebration of Bihar victory.
36:39Let's eat Rasulah.
36:41We will talk about the rest of this.
36:43You are not denying it.
36:44You don't deny it.
36:45You eat Rasulah.
36:46In fact, Darmendra Ji and I are going to do a debate.
36:49We are going to get…
36:50You eat Rasulah.
36:51Raja.
36:52What is your sweet Mariya?
36:53In which one sweet is your sweet ?
36:57To the taste.
36:58To the taste.
36:59To the taste.
37:00You drink it.
37:01Gaja.
37:02Some people say that Rasulah's Gaja gets better from Bengal.
37:06Tell me about what is on Bihar's sweet.
37:09That is a gaja.
37:10He has eaten Darmendra Ji.
37:11He has eaten gaja or not?
37:13I have eaten the acid.
37:16I've eaten it.
37:19Very nice.
37:28Darmendra Paddan Ji, for joining us on what I know has been a very busy day for you and
37:33you deserve credit because as I said, lots of backroom studies, you and Vinod Taude,
37:38my old friend from Maharashtra, came up from the ABVP and he also has been working very
37:42hard in BR.
37:43The two of you have been the driving force, but I appreciate you joining us and giving
37:48us a sense of what the strategy was.
37:50I think that line that he said, Maria.
37:52Thank you, sir.
37:53Thank you for your time and congratulations again.
37:56Bahut, bahut mubarak.
37:58That line which he said that this was an election between hope and despair.
38:06Hope and despair.
38:07Umeed.
38:07Or, yes, I think perhaps we can play that.
38:11Yeah, can we just play that?
38:12I think that's a big takeaway line.
38:14In a way, it summarizes what many of us saw on the ground when people had to choose that
38:20election.
38:21We'll play that in a moment, but I want to get in Professor Sanjay Kumar also who's been
38:25waiting patiently.
38:27Professor Sanjay Kumar, you heard that interview with Darmendra Paddan.
38:29You go along with that.
38:30That the voters chose.
38:32In an election, you choose between choices and they preferred the trusted Nitish to an
38:38untested Tejasvi who came with the baggage of Lalu Prasad.
38:44Lalu is both an asset and a liability for Tejasvi.
38:47Brings the vote bank of Muslim Yadavs, but also memories of Jangal Raj.
38:52Rajdeep, more than Lalu and Nitish, I would say the big slogan on which NDA campaigned
39:00that if by any chance Mahagat Bandhan comes to power, Jangal Raj is going to come back.
39:05And that connects to what Darmendra Paddan Ji mentioned, hope and despair in a sense.
39:12So this constant reminder by NDA that look, this is not an election to elect your MLA.
39:18This is not an election to elect your chief minister.
39:21This is an election to make sure whether you want to take Bihar to the path of progress
39:26or you want a return of Jangal Raj in Bihar.
39:28I think this big narrative which the NDA tried to use extensively or constantly during
39:37the campaign, that seems to have helped the NDA because that helped NDA in consolidate
39:42those voters who may not have voted for NDA in the past election.
39:48You rightly pointed out that if I look at caste-wise vote breakup, the two core group supporters
39:55of Mahagat Bandhan, Yadavs and Muslims have voted for the Mahagat Bandhan in a big way,
40:01maybe in much bigger way compared to the past election.
40:04But on the other hand, if you look at the upper caste and other communities, except Yadavs
40:09and Muslims, they have voted n-block in favor of NDA.
40:13And that explains one of the, that is one of the factors why NDA managed to increase six
40:20or seven percent votes compared to the past election, past assembly election.
40:24So let me simplify that for our viewers.
40:27You are saying, Sanjay Yadav, Muslims and Yadavs consolidated or continue to consolidate
40:31by and large, barring pockets of Simanchal around the Mahagat Bandhan.
40:37But there was an even greater consolidation of all the other groups around the NDA.
40:44Am I correct?
40:45Absolutely, you're right that there was a polarization and counter-polarization.
40:51Muslims and Yadavs voted in favor of Mahagat Bandhan in much bigger numbers compared to
40:56past election to the tune of more than 80 percent.
40:59But if you look at the other caste, except Yadavs and Muslims, they voted for NDA in a
41:05very large number, again at the tune of 80 percent or plus.
41:09Okay.
41:10Okay, let's bring in Manisha Priyam now.
41:13Manisha Priyam, we are looking at multiple factors that worked.
41:17What do you think did not work for Mahagat Bandhan?
41:20Or do you think they got everything right, got wrong from the word go?
41:24So, the very fulcrum of the Mahagat Bandhan, which was the RJD, that has collapsed big time.
41:36It's held on to its core vote base.
41:39It remains the party of the Yadavs.
41:42But whether even the M added on fully or not, the results in the Simanchal region especially
41:49put a question mark.
41:50So, the big failing of the Mahagat Bandhan has been able to get even its own leaders from
41:57other castes.
41:58Remember, in the Lok Sabha election, the RJD had a Kushwaha leader trounce the citadel of
42:05Chittalgarh of Rajputs in the Aurangabad constituency.
42:10And Abhay Kushwaha is their leader in the Lok Sabha, but he wasn't to be seen by the side
42:14of Tejasvi Yadav.
42:15They also have a very prominent Muslim leader in the name of Abdul Bari Siddiqui.
42:19They also have a very prominent Rajput leader in the name of Member of Parliament Sudhakar
42:24Singh.
42:25So, I definitely feel that neither did Mr. Tejasvi Yadav bring on his other leaders from
42:32the party, let alone walk across to an erstwhile ally of the family and of the party Ramkripal
42:39Yadav to say, Chacha, please come back.
42:42Or even to say that even if you don't come back, guide us.
42:46You know, you are our great uncle.
42:48So, the point that I'm trying to make is that the RJD made no efforts to go over, win over
42:55leaders from other backward castes, extremely backward castes, or to portray its own party
43:01as a bouquet of leadership.
43:03The singular focus on Tejasvi entrenching himself in the legacy that he's got, I think that was
43:09a huge failing of Mr. Lalu Prasad Yadav.
43:13Laluji's whole politics was quite different.
43:15Remember the Garib Railas.
43:18Yeah.
43:18You know, in a way the social…
43:20You know, the social coalition in a way has actually got restricted.
43:28What we realize is the social coalition that was once very broad has with time actually
43:34shrunk, which is very interesting.
43:37Because Achilles Yadav, Maria, has actually tried through his PDA to go the other way.
43:42He brought in Pichra, Dalits, Alpa Sankhya, Adhi Abadi together.
43:50Yogendra Yadav, you are still with us.
43:52Give us a final word.
43:53You heard what Surjit Bhalla also said.
43:55Many believe, Yogendra Yadav, that what we are seeing is the opposition is living in denial.
44:02That you actually have…
44:04The opposition needs to stop making the same mistakes all over again.
44:08They are unable to come to agreements on seat sharing.
44:12They don't have a clear narrative, clear messaging.
44:15And their leadership seems to lack credibility among common masses.
44:20The BJP with its welfare schemes, Nitish with its trust among women, carried more credibility.
44:25This was an election between credibility of the Yadavs versus credibility of NEMO.
44:30NEMO won.
44:33Rajdeep, after a verdict like this, the easiest thing would be to say that opposition got.
44:38The loser got everything wrong and the winner got everything right.
44:41That obviously does not happen.
44:42Yes, the opposition must have got right, must have got something seriously wrong.
44:48And while they are absolutely in their right to complain, to point fingers at the dubious conduct of the election commission.
44:56They got wrong.
44:57While they can speak about other things.
45:00But I do hope opposition would reflect on some basic things.
45:04As Manisha, I think, has very clearly pointed out, you know, the period of 90 to 2005, which was painted as those dark days by Mr. Pratham, was a period of social revolution in Bihar.
45:21A social revolution which failed to result into governance and therefore got stopped.
45:26But do remember, Lalu Prasad Yadav's revolution was not that of MY.
45:32It was a very broad coalition of Garib Gurba.
45:36Of all the downstream sections of society, plus, of course, some upper caste as well.
45:41So, in fact, unlike Mulaim Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav had a deeper and wider social coalition, which included Tadits, which included all the marginalized sections.
45:54And over the years, that very broad coalition of the bottom of the pyramid has got reduced into a coalition of MY.
46:02Now, excluding the M of Simanchal, who may have gone somewhat to the MIM, the MY coalition has stayed.
46:12But the difficulty is that the more successful this coalition is, the point that Sanjay Ji has made, in fact, it's counterproductive.
46:19If people see Muslims uniting behind the Mahakadbandhan, there is a counter-Hindu mobilization.
46:29And if people see Yadavs on the street with the confidence of coming back to power, it's not only the forward caste.
46:36It's also many EBCs who feel a sense of unease and threat.
46:42And the other thing where the opposition failed, did not do its job properly, was to address that question of Jangal Raj, which continues to be a dominant narrative, right or wrong.
46:54It's a very dominant narrative.
46:56Now Tejasfi has to address it.
46:58So, these things can be done.
46:59It is not end of the road.
47:01Today's election is not the kind of setback that Maharashtra was, that Haryana was.
47:07And the real test, to my mind, will come in Uttar Pradesh.
47:11But may I end by saying that the opposition also faces a very difficult challenge and something which no one can envy, which is, if they increasingly find that, look, we do everything,
47:25but results have to come in, in Maharashtra, in Haryana, whatever we might do, BJ people will, then there is a very serious question the opposition will face.
47:38I hope they don't face it, but that will be decided by, after the next round, especially after West Bengal, which is going to be the key battle for the next round.
47:47Okay, we've heard all sides right through the day.
47:52I appreciate all my guests joining us.
47:54I'm going to ask, in conclusion, Bihar Ki Beti, Maria Shaquille, what through this day has stood out for you the most?
48:01All these takeaways, what is the thing that stood out for you most?
48:04I want to also say, Maria told me a month ago, sir, this is Nitish Babu's election.
48:10You got that right, what do you think was the, what is your biggest takeaway?
48:15Rajdeep, I would have wanted to see Nitish Kumar today.
48:18If he is the man of the moment, he should have, you know, made some public appearance, gone to perhaps his party office.
48:25In 2010, I reported from his house.
48:28In 2015, I reported outside his house.
48:31I've covered the state very, very closely.
48:33Today, Nitish Kumar is not visible, and I'm just thinking, here is the man who has got that kind of faith from Bihar, across Bihar, and I am not seeing any image of Nitish Kumar.
48:46It has been just a tweet which he has shared.
48:48Very, very good point.
48:50The invisible Nitish Kumar in terms of the media, but visible it appears in the hearts and minds of many Biharis, particularly women.
48:59At the end of the day, he is in every sense the man of the match.
49:03Because if you are 20 years in power in a state, in a Hindi heartland, and still remain relevant, he may be Paltu Babu Ram for some, Sushasan Babu for others.
49:13For the voters of Bihar, Bihar ki majburi kahi hai yaa, kuch bhi kahi hai, Nitish Kumar zaruri hai.
49:21On that note, from Maryam, me and the entire wonderful team at India today, which has put all these splendid graphics,
49:27I want to thank all of them, Samkhya, who is our producer, all the people on the desk, earlier my colleagues, Gaurav, Savan, Preeti, Chaudhary, who joined us,
49:36as well as all those in the PCR, in the guest relations, in the assignment.
49:40Election day, trust me, is the ultimate team effort.
49:44And if news channels can do it, maybe so should political parties.
49:48No friendly fights take place even in news channels on election day.
49:53And even if they do, they are all in the spirit of things.
49:57So thank you all very much for joining us.
49:58Gaana Ho Jai?
49:59Bilkul, sir.
50:00We are ending with a song for you.
50:02You have a good night.
50:03I have had a long day as has Maria.
50:06Namaskar, pranaam, jai Bihar, jai Hind.
50:10Bye for now.
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