- 7 weeks ago
This India Today and Business Today special report from the World Economic Forum in Davos features exclusive interviews of World Economic Forum President Børge Brende, Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman, Ishaan Tharoor, Global Affairs Columnist for the Washington Post, and Mukesh Aghi, president and CEO, US-India Strategic Partnership Forum.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this India Today and Business Today special coming to you from the World Economic Forum in an icy cold Davos in Switzerland.
00:13And it could be coming at a more appropriate time because the world is facing arguably its most complex geopolitical and geo-economic challenges since the Second World War.
00:25Over the next few days, my colleague Siddharth Zarabi, the group editor of Business Today and I, Rajdeep Sardesai, will take you through all that's happening as world leaders converge here in Davos, including the man of the moment, the U.S. President Donald Trump.
00:43We'll have thought leaders and newsmakers join us here on India Today, Business Today at this Davos brainstorm.
00:51And who better to kick off this special coverage than Borje Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum, the former foreign minister of Norway.
01:02Thank you very much, Mr. Brende, for joining us here at the World Economic Forum.
01:07You couldn't have chosen, one would argue, a more appropriate time to bring world leaders together, and you've called it the spirit of dialogue.
01:14But out there in the real world, we're seeing very little dialogue and more confrontation.
01:20In fact, even as we speak, a potential confrontation now politically and economically between Europe and the United States over Greenland.
01:28How are you seeing dialogue in this conflicting world?
01:33You know, dialogue is a prerequisite for making any kind of progress.
01:37And you're right, currently, the dialogue going on is really challenged, that's for sure.
01:45And as you said, we are faced with the most complicated geopolitical backdrop since 1945.
01:53But still, in Davos here, we have 65 heads of states and governments, thousands of the leading CEOs of the world.
02:01So hopefully, by having him here, inside and not outside, because it's pretty cold, that outside is reflecting the geopolitical situation, I think, we might make progress on a few issues.
02:15You know, you're repeating what you've also said earlier, and what I introduced, that this is the most complex geopolitical environment since 1945.
02:24I mentioned specifically the possibility now of an escalating trade and political war between Europe and the United States over Greenland.
02:34President Trump seems to suggest that he is determined to go ahead and get Greenland either by buying it or through coercion.
02:45How are you seeing all of that playing out?
02:47I come back to it.
02:47How do you see dialogue when there is so much of confrontation and unilateralism?
02:52So we have seen that some impulses have also been able to be dealt with.
03:00So they have been kind of breaking impulses.
03:03Look at the situation between the U.S. and China.
03:06A little bit less than a year ago, there were tariffs of 150 percent.
03:12They came together.
03:13And now Mr. Trump is going on a state visit to China in April.
03:18And there are in concrete dialogues because they found out, both of them, that this decoupling wasn't a good idea because it wasn't possible.
03:26Because they're so intertwined, these economies.
03:29U.S. depend on Chinese rare earth and water manufacturing.
03:34And then China also depends on some of the most advanced microchips and semiconductors from the U.S.
03:42So it will be very interesting when it comes to Europe and the U.S. this week.
03:46All the European leaders are basically here.
03:48Trump is coming with almost his full cabinet.
03:51Maybe they also break some impulses this week.
03:54Who knows?
03:55Do you see a solution to this impasse between Europe and the United States?
04:00Because Europe is threatening now to use its potential coercive instruments, including the bazooka,
04:05and having countervailing tariffs on the United States if the U.S. puts tariffs on Europe.
04:11And Greenland is stuck in the middle.
04:13It's a country you know well in terms of the fact that because Denmark, a neighbor of Norway, governs Greenland.
04:21Is there a solution you see through dialogue at all?
04:24Or are we entering a world where might is right and coercion will take over?
04:28The United States says, might is right, we're going to take it over.
04:31You know, when a situation is escalating, it's harder to see how you're going to maneuver out of it.
04:38And now there is definitely hard words out there.
04:43But, you know, the U.S. and Europe also really, really, you know, are very dependent on each other.
04:51It's large trading partners.
04:54It's cultural connections for centuries.
04:58So let's see now when Mr. Trump arrives on Wednesday.
05:04We will have also the key European leaders here.
05:07We also will have Zelensky here.
05:09So we know there is going to be discussions on Ukraine.
05:12It's going to be discussions also on the second phase of Gaza.
05:16But it's hard to predict.
05:18But maybe the mountain air here, the clear, crisp mountain air, will clear everyone's head.
05:24Let me turn the focus to India, but continuing from what you've been telling us.
05:30The European Union and India are at very advanced stages of a trade deal.
05:36And the fact that we've been working on it with the European Union for quite some time,
05:42and we might see a culmination of that process.
05:44How significant would you think this would be, given that the overall trade framework globally is completely disrupted?
05:52So we have seen the European Union also taking a very proactive approach here.
05:59Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the Commission, was just in Latin America, still in Sao Paulo yesterday,
06:05signing this Mercosur deal.
06:08Many of the big Latin American countries having a trade deal with Europe.
06:12That was not foreseen because there are many difficult issues related to also agriculture.
06:18Now I think it's time for India and the EU.
06:23There have been also traditionally many challenges there.
06:26But I think both of EU and India, and EU is the largest market in the world,
06:32still see that there are benefits and also sending a strong signal if that deal is going to be made.
06:39I would say, though, to the trade outlook, we still expect 3% growth in trade this year.
06:46So it's not contracting. It's just growing slower than in the past.
06:50Trade is like water. It finds its way.
06:53You've been to India in the recent past.
06:56We already have a pretty unique agreement with the EFTA nations.
07:01From your point of view, where do you think India's global trade re-engagement stands today?
07:07Do you think it's the right thing in this kind of global trade order?
07:12And this is after a time when we walked away from some trade deals around 5, 10 years ago.
07:18So it is incredible how much economic reforms that have happened in India just the last months.
07:26I was expecting, but I thought it was going to happen in the coming decade.
07:31I think the situation between the U.S. and India has accelerated some of the political initiatives from the government.
07:38I think also, though, down the line, down the road, there will be an agreement between the U.S. and India.
07:45But I think India's perspective now is maybe more one of big self-confidence.
07:52It's the fastest growing of the large economies in the world, contributing to 20% of the overall global growth.
07:59It's incredible. I think in that situation, India can make deals on trade that's in India's interest.
08:05I think that is the thing. India will do it when it is in the interest of the long-term development of India.
08:11We'll come to India back again, but I want to come back to the elephant in the room.
08:16You mentioned that Donald Trump will be here on Wednesday.
08:19There will be European leaders. There will be leaders from across the world.
08:22There's Zelensky there. The fear that many have is that the world trade order has been upended and increasingly the old alignments are also under stress.
08:33NATO, for example, what happens tomorrow if Donald Trump goes ahead and takes Greenland?
08:39Where does that leave NATO? Where does that leave these old alliances?
08:43When you said that this is the most difficult or complex period since 1945, is that in a way that the old order is completely getting disrupted?
08:52And where does that leave organizations like NATO?
08:56I don't think the old order is totally disrupted.
09:00We just discussed trade, for example.
09:02Still 75% of the global trade happens under the World Trade Organization, WTO's rules and regulations.
09:11But new deals are maybe not multilateral.
09:14I think on NATO and the relationship between Europe and the U.S., this is particularly delicate this week.
09:23I think that this alliance will continue.
09:26I think they will find a way.
09:28But it's hard to see what the path is just now.
09:32But I think we need to see that the tension goes down.
09:38And then, you know, sometimes the negotiation tactic is also to go very far out there.
09:44And then there will be something in the middle later on.
09:47But, you know, now this is having a lot of the focus.
09:51Last week it was Venezuela.
09:52The week before it was Iran.
09:54And then it was Gaza.
09:56Then it was Ukraine.
09:57And then it was also East Asia Sea.
10:01So we just have to deal with all these complexities at the same time.
10:07And hopefully we will see no real escalation into a big war.
10:11Because that is not likely, but that is the most dramatic scenario that will also kill growth.
10:16Because growth is back now in the global economy.
10:19More than 3% is not bad, you know.
10:21No, it is.
10:22But the world's from a distance, at least from an Indian perspective, seems to be in perpetual conflict.
10:28And therefore, as I said, it seems that the world order is appended.
10:31Even as we are at the World Economic Forum, on my way I got a flash that the Iranian foreign minister
10:36is supposed to come to address the World Economic Forum.
10:40U.S. senators are saying, why is the Iranian foreign minister being invited to the World Economic Forum?
10:46So tensions seem to be rising.
10:48And at the same time, India has been invited to be part of a board of peace on Gaza.
10:53So on Gaza, we are seeing a ray of hope.
10:56On Iran, the world seems to be in conflict.
10:58It seems a very, very complicated place and time to be in.
11:03Do you really see the potential for a dialogue?
11:07Do you see this uncertainty settling down?
11:09Or as long as Donald Trump is in the White House or at WEF, we don't know what tomorrow will bring.
11:15So I'm much more of a glass half-full than half-empty guy.
11:19When we met last year in Davos, we were very concerned that the geopolitical confrontations would kill global growth.
11:29And now we're back in Davos and the global growth is higher than we expected.
11:33We also see that the new technologies, artificial intelligence or frontier technologies,
11:39are driving growth and investments that we haven't seen in decades.
11:42So trade is growing slower.
11:45But it's going slowly.
11:47The trade piece is growing slower.
11:49But we do think that the frontier technologies can replace trade as a global growth engine.
11:55So who would have thought that we were sitting here in Davos a year later,
11:59we have higher trade growth, we have huge investments in the new technologies,
12:04and the overall growth perspective is not bad.
12:07So it seems like even this catches a lot of headlines in media that countries also find a way to adapt.
12:17I think this is also on the trade piece.
12:19You know, they have adapted to a new reality.
12:23That's why they do bilateral trade agreements, mega trade agreements.
12:27And we will see also in global cooperation that now the Security Council in the U.N.
12:34is not the place where the most important negotiations are happening.
12:38They're more bilateral and different.
12:39And, of course, you do see interest spheres established.
12:44And this is contrary to what we predicted with multipolar world.
12:48Multipolar world would mean a lot of countries.
12:50Now it seems like there are some big movers and shakers that are in control.
12:56So how do we describe a world where there's global cooperation, bilateral cooperation taking place, and conflicts also?
13:05It almost seems as if conflict and cooperation coexist at the moment across the world.
13:10Exactly.
13:10I think we are seeing, like, cooperation in a very competitive world.
13:20Cooperation in a very competitive world.
13:23Interesting.
13:24Yeah, but that would also raise the question that what happens to smaller economies?
13:29Where might is right cannot be their operating principle.
13:32Do you think smaller economies, smaller nations are at a risk in this kind of trade order and bilateral one-on-one engagements that are evolving?
13:43Yes, I do.
13:43So, but they will also form a coalition of willings.
13:48So, you mentioned EFTA earlier where there was a trade deal between EFTA and India.
13:54EFTA is, like, the only international organization where Switzerland and Norway are superpowers.
13:59It's Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Iceland.
14:02But they're, like, the 12th largest economy in the world.
14:04They came together, and they're forming trade relations under cost.
14:08Yeah, under the radar screen.
14:10I think the smaller nations will come together.
14:13For India, though, it's now a big economy.
14:15You know, I think it's going to be a 10 trillion U.S. dollars economy pretty soon.
14:20So, India will have now to balance also in this very fragmented, competitive world.
14:29How should India balance China?
14:31China.
14:32Is, I think, India better to answer than for me?
14:38I think India so far has dealt with a very delicate situation wisely, not rushing it.
14:46But, as I said, I do think there will be an agreement between India and the U.S. down the road.
14:52Because I think also U.S. want a good relationship with India, and U.S. also wants checks and balances in Asia,
15:05and they probably don't find anyone else than India that has the size to represent a balance.
15:11I guess that is the thinking in D.C., but then there are some short-term obstacles there that have to be mitigated.
15:20No, I'm being a diplomat again.
15:22You're being very diplomatic, so I'm going to push you on that.
15:24If I were to ask you, Mr. Brende, the top three risks,
15:28and some of them are part of the discussions that you're having at the World Economic Forum,
15:32what would those top three risks be to ensuring a more stable world order at the moment,
15:38which allows growth, which allows trade across the world's smaller and larger economies?
15:43What would be the top three risks the world is facing at the moment?
15:47If we were to say one, two, three.
15:48I think I already touched on the biggest risk that is not very likely, but with huge potential impact.
15:56It's like if the Iranian situation had escalated and got out of control,
16:02it could have affected the whole Gulf region that is also extremely important for oil and gas.
16:07So war is escalating, and with the big powers on different sides, that is the biggest risk, but hopefully not happening.
16:18I would say second, probably bubbles in the economy.
16:23There can be like an AI bubble, it can be a crypto bubble, there can also be a debt bubble,
16:30because we are more indebted than any other time since 1945.
16:35So many countries have the biggest expenditure on their state budget that is paying on the interest.
16:40I would say, though, bubbles, AI bubble and crypto bubble, it's easier to handle,
16:45because we haven't had bubbles before.
16:47We had the railway bubble, we had the electricity bubble, we had the dot-com bubble,
16:51but the technologies are still there.
16:53But the debt thing is more affecting the financial system.
16:57So that's why we really need a lot of growth moving forward to grow out of it.
17:02I would say the third one are like the black swans, like future pandemics.
17:07It is like cyber crime, warfare, those things that are the black swans.
17:17You're being very diplomatic in the sense that you're not including the man who you're hosting in a couple of days, Donald Trump.
17:24He's going to be in power for another three years.
17:26We don't know what comes next with Donald Trump.
17:28Last week it was Venezuela, you take over a country, effectively remove the leader of that country,
17:34take over that oil economy, not speaking about human rights or democracy, but speaking about oil.
17:40Do you feel that Donald Trump is one of the global risks that the world runs, this Trumpian world order,
17:46where we don't know what tomorrow will bring?
17:48You'll be very Trump-focused.
17:51The very fact that Donald Trump has created such a buzz that he's coming here,
17:57I mentioned the fact that you've also got, interestingly, Mr. Borger, you've got the Iranian foreign minister coming here.
18:05So you've been careful to balance, in a sense, spheres of influence.
18:08The U.S. president is a fact, and he will be there in the years to come.
18:15But in Davos, you know, we also have a lot of other key players.
18:19We have for the first time the Syrian president, we have President Sisi from Egypt.
18:23We have practically six out of seven G7 leaders.
18:27But it's true that Donald Trump also attracts a lot of media attention.
18:32I think one has to deal with the U.S. administration case by case.
18:38And then I think it's totally possible to have a dialogue.
18:44I mentioned India-U.S. I think it's going to be sold.
18:47I think they're going to find ways also on the tariffs and Greenland.
18:52I think we're going to make progress even on, hopefully, on Ukraine and Gaza during this week.
18:57So I think we just have to be used to a lot of noise, and then we have to look at it in a systemic way.
19:06What can we still do in, like, a totally different context than we used to operate it?
19:13I make a very interesting point.
19:15You're saying the media should perhaps focus less on the noise that comes out, emanates, let's say, from White House,
19:20and look at perhaps the other relationships that are being struck quietly under the radar in some instances
19:26that actually make the world, you hope, a better place or a more stable order,
19:32that don't focus all your attention on what happens in and out of the White House.
19:39Am I correct?
19:39I couldn't have said it better myself.
19:42Interesting.
19:42You know, we've just got a couple of moments to go, a couple of minutes.
19:48Overall, as you sit here today from your vantage point in DeVos,
19:53do you believe the world is in a better place in 2026, January, than it was a year ago?
19:58Or do you believe 2026 will be a decisive year, given the fact, as we said at the outset,
20:05we are facing a very complex geopolitical environment?
20:08Is 2026 going to be the critical year, in a way, for the world?
20:11The economy looks strong and stronger, been very resilient.
20:16But if you ask me about the geopolitics, I think we're worse than last year and better than next year.
20:24And is there any particular geopolitical issue that troubles you the most in all these conflicts taking place?
20:31We haven't resolved Ukraine.
20:34We don't know what will happen next with Iran.
20:38There are these fears of influence that the world is being divided.
20:40Is there any particular conflict that you hope in 2026 will be resolved?
20:45Or at DeVos, we'll see an actual breakthrough?
20:48Because Greenland is another new frontier that's been opened.
20:51I think after almost four years, I think the Ukraine war possibly could end this year.
20:59I'm not saying it will, but I think if there's willingness, one can find a solution.
21:04I think the second steps on Gaza hopefully will be implemented.
21:10And we can see also that there will be then investments and start to rebuild the Gaza piece.
21:17I'm worried about Sudan.
21:19I'm worried about also the situation in a lot of developing countries that don't get that kind of attention
21:29because all the air is sucked out by some more media-friendly topics.
21:37Let's leave it there, Borgé, Brendan.
21:41I think you've given us a sense of a broad overview.
21:44And I'm glad that the World Economic Forum is tackling all these issues head-on,
21:49whether it's trade, artificial intelligence, or indeed the conflicts that are now dominating the world order,
21:55which is why this couldn't be a more important time for the World Economic Forum.
22:00And good to have a Norwegian as the head in a way because you, in a sense, hopefully,
22:06will bring the necessary balance to this very friction and faction-ridden world.
22:13Thank you for the trust.
22:15You know, I'm as Indian as I am European.
22:17Really?
22:18What does that mean?
22:19I don't know that.
22:19I think the strength of the World Economic Forum, of course I am biased,
22:23but is that we are a truly impartial, independent platform.
22:27So we do have the Chinese and the Americans in the same room.
22:32We also have the Indians here with a very strong delegation.
22:39At the same time, we even have the Pakistani prime minister.
22:42So it's a unique platform where people meet, not necessarily agreeing,
22:49but at least we have the right people in the same room.
22:54Thank you very much for joining us.
22:56The world in Trumpian turmoil and what happens next.
23:01To join us now are two very special guests.
23:03Privileged to be joined by Gideon Rackman.
23:06He is the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Venerable Financial Times.
23:11Also joined by the global affairs columnist for the Washington Post, Ishaan Theroux.
23:17Appreciate both of you joining us.
23:18Couldn't have chosen a better moment to talk to both of you.
23:22And let's start with the latest conflict that's convulging the world, which is Greenland.
23:27Donald Trump making it clear he wants Greenland by hook or crook in a way.
23:33Gideon, your first response.
23:35Are we heading now for an inevitable conflict between Europe and America over Greenland?
23:41And do you see a pushback or Donald Trump taking it over, much as in the manner that he took over Venezuela just a week ago?
23:48Well, I think we're already in the conflict.
23:51The question is how it develops from here.
23:53I actually don't think the Americans are going to do military action as a first resort.
23:58They may not do it at all because I think that would be so drastic.
24:03I think people around Trump would try to restrain him.
24:06But I do think that they are going to ramp up the pressure on Europe in ways that lead to an intensifying kind of confrontation.
24:16They will do these tariffs, probably, unless maybe the Supreme Court comes to our rescue and says the tariffs are illegal.
24:23Europe will hit back with tariffs.
24:24I'm pretty sure about that.
24:27And then I think Trump has this tendency to link security and economics.
24:31So I think he will then cut off arms sales to Ukraine.
24:35Actually, it's the Europeans buy the arms from America and hand them over to Ukraine.
24:39Do what he can to put Ukraine in an even worse situation than it is now, which then threatens European security.
24:45And then the question is really can NATO survive all of this?
24:48It may survive as a sort of nameplate on a door, but I'm not sure it's really a fundamental.
24:52Are you seeing a European pushback then?
24:54Do you believe the Europeans will push back?
24:56Donald Trump's written a letter to the Norwegians suggesting that because they didn't give him a Nobel Peace Prize, he has no interest in peace.
25:05Are you seeing the Europeans push back or will they just have to accept that might is right?
25:11No, I think they will push back.
25:13I mean, you know, maybe that's me as a European.
25:15And of course, Britain's no longer a member of the EU.
25:17But interestingly, he's signing all the letters with the Europeans.
25:20They've absolutely sided with Europe on this one.
25:23And the UK political leaders are united on this, the Conservatives and Labour, saying this is unacceptable from Trump.
25:29So oddly, Trump's pushing Britain back towards Europe.
25:32So I think there will be pushback.
25:34I wouldn't completely rule out Europe folding.
25:37I think they're desperately searching for some sort of compromise.
25:40But I don't think Trump is in a compromising mood.
25:42And if there's no compromise to be had, Europe will have to push back.
25:45Ishan, Trump is not in a compromising mood.
25:47Is he determined, particularly after what happened in Venezuela, to make sure that Greenland comes next?
25:53Is there any possibility of Trump pulling back?
25:57The Financial Times memorably last year says, taco, Trump always chickens out.
26:02Is he going to chicken out of Greenland or is he determined to go ahead with it?
26:05And what is driving this so-called Don't-Road doctrine, as he puts it?
26:11You know, it's quite fascinating.
26:13If you look at the national security strategy that came out from the White House just a few months ago,
26:17there's barely a word about Greenland in there.
26:20There is no official policy in this administration anchored around security strategy in the Arctic with Greenland.
26:27But this is very much the personal conviction of President Trump.
26:30President Trump has got in his head that this is something the U.S. must have.
26:35And absolutely, when you talk about the Don't-Road doctrine,
26:37it is this kind of 21st century manifest destiny of the United States that he seems to feel that he's capable of exerting.
26:44He believes that, absolutely, as his advisor Stephen Miller said on TV,
26:49you know, the iron law of the world is might makes right.
26:52And they can do what they want in the Western Hemisphere because they deserve to.
26:55And that is, it's a set of impulses, less than a strategy at this point.
27:01And it also flows out of a kind of culture war within the United States.
27:06He still sees himself at war with the left at home.
27:10And he extends that to a broader war with a kind of global liberal establishment,
27:16the Davos class on a certain level, the custodians of the international order, the U.N.
27:21And it all flows out of that kind of animus and hostility.
27:25So if you're looking for a strategy, that's basically it.
27:28But even then, it doesn't fully explain what's happening with Greenland and why it matters so much to Trump.
27:34Why does it matter so much to Trump?
27:36You know, if it's not about strategy, if it's about just individual impulse.
27:41With Venezuela, when he makes a speech, he doesn't speak about democracy, human rights.
27:45He ends up speaking mainly about oil.
27:47I think, you know, I'll let you stand on.
27:49But just a quick one.
27:51I think it's because it's big.
27:53It's a big place, even bigger on the Mercator projections on the maps.
27:57So it looks like it's the size of Africa.
27:59It's about a fifth the size of Africa.
28:00And he thinks, wow, I can put my face and the American flag on this.
28:05And I'll be really great.
28:06And everyone will really admire me for this.
28:08I don't think there's anything more than that.
28:11The joke actually is that he's seen the Mercator projection as opposed to the actual map.
28:16There is an American tradition about wanting Greenland.
28:20In the mid-19th century, when Seward bought Alaska, he also wanted to buy Greenland.
28:24And then at that point in time, they saw it as if they have Alaska, if they have Greenland, then by extension, they should logically get Canada.
28:31And Trump has also talked about the artificial nature of the U.S.-Canada border.
28:36So it's a quite hysterical vision of kind of American expansion in the 21st century.
28:42But look, I think the fundamental reality is that we are now in a situation where Trump's personality drives American policy, where there's no legislative check against him because the Congress is not doing what it's supposed to be doing.
28:54The Republican Party is wholesale captured by him still.
28:58And you've seen very little dissent, even by legislators who we know in private, are tearing their hair out over some of Trump's rhetoric and posturing.
29:07So you see him going ahead with it.
29:09You don't see this as posturing.
29:11You don't see Donald Trump using this then to strike some kind of a bargain.
29:15You see him going ahead and capturing Greenland in 2026.
29:19I wouldn't say that.
29:20I think there are a lot of things that would have to happen for that to happen.
29:24But I do think he will use it as it will be a fly in the ointment in the American-U.S. relationship.
29:30As Gideon said, it could foil Trump's, foil European hopes for the U.S. to play a sustainable and good role in whatever happens in Ukraine.
29:41And we'll see how things evolve.
29:43But, you know, Trump likes to have these hobby horses that he beats over time.
29:48Yeah, I think one thing that could stop him is you're beginning to see the markets go down quite sharply today.
29:53And you mentioned the whole taco thing.
29:56That was really in response to a market crash after the Liberation Day tariffs.
30:00Trump changed his mind.
30:01And I think if the markets really go down, you know, if the bond market, if Europeans start selling, you know, American debt,
30:09that is the kind of thing that might cause him.
30:12He won't drop it.
30:13He'll just change the subject.
30:13Can I just look at this Don Roe doctrine for a little bit, for a bit?
30:19Because, Gideon, you wrote a column in the Financial Times suggesting that if this fears of influence argument goes further,
30:27if the Americans decide the Western Hemisphere is ours, it's Venezuela one day, it could be Colombia the next,
30:33it could be Cuba the third, it could be Greenland, the Chinese tomorrow could say the South China Sea is ours,
30:39Taiwan is ours, and where does it all end?
30:42Do you see, therefore, are we inexorably heading towards a U.S.-China battle for spheres of influence?
30:49If Donald Trump is allowed to get away now, the Chinese tomorrow could get away with Taiwan,
30:54and that could have implications for countries like India as well.
30:57Totally.
30:58Go to Taiwan and, indeed, the South China Sea.
31:00I mean, reading Trump's letter that you referred to about how the Danish claim to Greenland is based on, you know, a few ships,
31:08it's very similar to the kind of arguments China makes about the South China Sea.
31:12You know, this is all lost in the midst of time.
31:14We have as legitimate a claim as everybody else.
31:16So Trump is legitimating that form of argument.
31:20We're the most powerful people here.
31:22We can make up any argument that we like, and we're just going to grab it and see what you can do.
31:26And international laws are jokes, so don't even try and stop us.
31:30Those are Trump's arguments, and those, actually put rather more subtly, are also China's arguments.
31:35And if Trump concentrates on the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese will think, great, we'll take our sphere.
31:40And, incidentally, their sphere is a much bigger share of the global economy.
31:43So it would be a crazy deal for America to accept that.
31:47So could that be a check on Trump?
31:49The fact that the fear that someone in the White House or someone in America will say,
31:54look, if we go ahead with doing this, the Chinese could well have their sphere of influence.
31:58Could that be a check?
31:59Or is Trump not worried about the consequences of a Don Roe Doctrine across the world?
32:05I don't think they see it in those frames.
32:07I don't think they see China as inexorably taking what it wants.
32:10But I think what's interesting about this framing of the Don Roe Doctrine is that it comes from a political movement in the United States
32:18that believes in the kind of supremacy of its power.
32:23Make America agree again.
32:24Yes, and they feel entitled to wield their power as they see fit, whatever the rules, whatever the norms, whatever the international considerations.
32:32What's interesting about how it's being framed is that it's actually in many ways a shrinking of American power.
32:39It's so much of what's constituted American power over the last generation or multiple generations
32:44has been its capacity to project strength around the world through soft power, through alliances, through trade.
32:52And this seems to be a withdrawal.
32:55I mean, Trump is withdrawn from numerous international agencies.
32:58He's endangering the Transatlantic Alliance in profound ways.
33:03And so in many ways, the view in Washington amongst this foreign policy establishment is that the Don Roe Doctrine is a retreat.
33:11So could he be willing to risk this Transatlantic Alliance?
33:15Could he be willing to risk NATO, the post-World War II order, possibly even retreat from Ukraine and say,
33:21look, this is for Europe and Putin to decide I'm out of it?
33:24Is that possible?
33:25Their view is that the post-World War II order is failing.
33:29And their view is that the post-World War II order is no longer fit for purpose and that we have to build something else out of its ruins.
33:36Yeah.
33:37You see, he could withdraw out of the Transatlantic Alliance and say, you know,
33:42allow Vladimir Putin to have his own sphere of influence in Europe, including Ukraine?
33:46He's pretty close to that already.
33:47I mean, I think we're 50% of the way there.
33:50Sure.
33:50I think that that is where we're heading, I'm afraid.
33:52Where Ukraine would be left towards, the Americans would not want to play a role in Ukraine?
33:58The Americans have cut off aid to Ukraine already.
34:01I mean, they don't do financial aid or arms aid of the scale that the U.S. was doing under Biden.
34:06What they do do is sell weapons to the Europeans, which the Europeans can then hand on to Ukraine,
34:11and they provide intelligence, which is really, really important to Ukraine in the battle to stop the Russians.
34:17Now, President Macron of France, interestingly, said just recently that France now provides 80% of the intelligence that Ukraine needs.
34:25I sincerely hope that is true, because in that case, Ukraine can fight on.
34:29But if not, they could be in serious trouble, because so much of this is done with satellites and drones.
34:35So what happens to the Ukraine war?
34:37Does it continue through 2026?
34:38What's your sense?
34:40Are we heading through a situation where the Ukrainians find themselves increasingly vulnerable and isolated?
34:46Look, I think just to piggyback on what Gideon was talking about, the Trump folks will tell you that this is all a good thing,
34:54that Europe should be taking the lead on all this, that we have instigated a change within Europe that was fundamentally necessary.
35:01And I think some Europeans would agree that we shouldn't be so dependent on a certain U.S. commitment indefinitely and at scale.
35:10So when it comes to this year in Ukraine, I think it's a very complicated situation.
35:16President Zelensky faces a quagmire at home politically as well.
35:20But obviously, the Europeans have rallied around him.
35:24They want to give Ukraine the support it needs to have a strong seat at the bargaining table.
35:28But it really is, in terms of what happens next, it really is we're waiting for actual good faith from the Russians, and we've yet to see it.
35:35Can I come back to China for a moment? Because it is the other dragon in the room.
35:39If Trump is the elephant, China is the dragon in the room.
35:43I mean, how do you see this Chinese-U.S. equation playing out in the next 12 months?
35:50I think Trump has handed China a massive opportunity because, despite the fact that Biden is often sort of slagged off as a weak president,
35:58actually he'd done something really quite important, which was to construct a kind of global Western alliance,
36:04which was steadily squeezing China's space, which, to my mind, actually included India,
36:09but also included, you know, the Europeans, the Australians, Japanese.
36:13Groups like the quarterfax.
36:14Example.
36:15And Trump has trashed that and is driving people back towards China.
36:21So, Canada has just, Mark Carney's just been in Beijing, signed a trade deal with China,
36:27and other Europeans will be heading in that direction.
36:30Canada's not European, spiritually, perhaps.
36:32But, and, you know, I remember this time last year I had a meeting with a sort of senior British security type,
36:39and I said to him, look, the way Trump's behaving, would it be such a bad idea to warm up to China?
36:45And he said, yeah, that would be a really terrible idea.
36:48And he laid out for me why we should not do that.
36:50But I suspect if we had that conversation again, I think it's certainly on the table now.
36:57The other, sort of, the achievement, or Trump builds as an achievement,
37:02is now the setting up of a board of peace for Gaza.
37:05He's invited India, for example, to be part of the board of peace.
37:08Do you see, therefore, a more stable 2026 in the Middle East?
37:13So that's, with Netanyahu in Israel, with the Iranians potentially seen by Trump as another enemy country in the area,
37:25how do you see that play out?
37:27Do you see any kind of, in this increasingly uncertain, unstable world,
37:32could we see some glimmer of hope at all in the Middle East or no?
37:38I mean, what sense does this board of peace really make?
37:42I mean, I think it's far too early to tell to say anything definitive about what this board of peace will accomplish,
37:48let alone what this board of peace actually is.
37:50It's a confusing mix of governments and figures.
37:56And what Trump wants to do with it, it seems from the reporting and from what we're hearing,
38:02is that he wants to wield it in such a way that it jostles with the existing international architecture
38:08that exists around peacemaking, the UN system, and so forth.
38:12So his desire for what it's going to be is quite grand.
38:15And when it comes to finding a path out in Gaza, there is this Trump 20-point plan.
38:22The Trump folks believe that it's in motion now.
38:25What we're seeing on the ground is a little bit different.
38:27And then, of course, there are a lot of things happening in the region that are very complicated.
38:31You're seeing a major rift blow out in the open between the Saudis and the Emiratis.
38:35You're going to have elections at some point in Israel.
38:37That will complicate the equation there as well.
38:40And then there's, of course, developments in Iran.
38:43So there's a lot happening right now.
38:44Where do these disruptions leave countries like India, countries that would probably benefit from a more stable world order?
38:54We found ourselves in the crosshairs of Donald Trump over tariffs, you know, because we were buying Russian oil.
39:02What can India do?
39:04Do countries like India really have any elbow room, you believe, Gideon,
39:07or any role at all to play in this increasingly uncertain world order where even the United Nations appears completely enfeebled?
39:16Yeah, I mean, I think it's an incredibly complicated and difficult situation.
39:21But it is one that offers opportunities for India because, yes, I think, you know,
39:26clearly it's been shown over the past year that putting your faith in Donald Trump is not a great idea
39:31because you can have a wonderful meeting with him in May and a disastrous meeting with him in June.
39:36Nothing lasts with him.
39:38He'll change his mind.
39:39And, you know, you've got real problems with China, with Pakistan, et cetera.
39:43But you also, obviously, India has enormous strengths.
39:46It's a huge country, now the largest population in the world, one of the five largest economies in the world.
39:51So, as everybody is looking to diversify their relationships away from the United States,
39:57which essentially is what America's allies have to do, they'll all look to India.
40:01Everybody will see India as an essential partner.
40:04So, you know, the UK has done a trade deal with India.
40:07The EU will want to do it.
40:09South Korea, Japan, everybody's going to want to intensify relations with India right across the board.
40:14Economics, security, et cetera.
40:16And, you know, I don't expect India is not a country that joins formal alliances, but it will have many opportunities.
40:24You know, Ishan, I interviewed your father, Shashi Tharoor, a few weeks ago, and he said,
40:29years ago I said the world would be multi-aligned, not multi-polar, but multi-aligned.
40:34Do you see that happening?
40:35And countries like India will therefore have their alignments in a way with different potential bilateral partners.
40:43You'll see more bilateralism and possibly multi-lateralism as we knew it fading away
40:50because there's very little common ground across the world, but there's lots of common ground between countries,
40:57and that's where India's future also lies.
40:59I think Gideon's newspaper put it best a few years ago when they summoned this concept of the a la carte world order,
41:05where you can pick and choose in different moments the arrangements you want on your plate.
41:09And I think that is certainly where we're headed.
41:12I think that's sort of the worldview of the Trump people.
41:15That's the worldview of many in the global South.
41:18And I think the one way to spin this positively is that it's at least honest.
41:23It's at least, you know, we don't have to appeal to certain values and rhetoric that are constantly,
41:28you know, dispensed with when it's convenient.
41:32But it also leads to profound uncertainty.
41:38It leads to scenarios where you see rogue governments, bad actors acting with impunity all the more.
41:46You know, I think we'll miss hypocrisy.
41:49You know, at least in the old days, there were like values you could appeal to,
41:53and occasionally you could shame people and say, look, this isn't consonant with what you'd say.
41:57And it did sometimes affect their behavior.
41:58Ishan, you also wanted to make a point, interestingly, about Indians living in America in this Trumpian age.
42:05Yes, I think it's been really striking over this past year, the first year of his second term,
42:10the cultural shift you've seen in the American conversation,
42:14especially online and especially among the kind of MAGA Trump base about Indians.
42:19You know, Indians for a long time have patted themselves on the back in the U.S.
42:22about being the most successful minority group in the country, the preeminent model minority.
42:27But we've seen this rapid acceleration to a different narrative about Indians as invaders,
42:35the complete contempt for the H-1B program that's brought in so many Indian tech workers,
42:40just unabashed racism about Indians in India in the MAGA discourse.
42:45And it's been quite striking.
42:47So as we think about India's place in all this,
42:49the place of Indian Americans has also been complicated by the past year.
42:53Because you're in this age of these strongmen, you know, who have little place for democracy.
42:59That's right.
43:00The era of the strongmen across the world.
43:03But in this era of the strongmen, can we even predict where we will be 12 months from now?
43:08We all meet in Davos again.
43:09Will the world be a better place, you believe?
43:13A quieter place?
43:14Or are we going to live in a world of perpetual conflict and noise for a while longer?
43:21I suspect it's going to be the latter.
43:24And Gideon and I were with your network a year ago here.
43:27And we speculated, is Trump going to be this?
43:29This is at a moment of relative optimism about what Trump could be.
43:33And we speculated, is he going to be some kind of custodian of a positive shift?
43:38Or is he going to be more of a mafia boss?
43:40And I think he's answered quite definitively on the side of being more of a mafia boss.
43:44And the thing about mafia families is you can get periods of peace,
43:48but then eventually they start shooting at each other.
43:51We're looking at the U.S. president,
43:52arguably the most powerful man in the world at the moment,
43:55and calling him a mafia boss.
43:57I have no problem.
43:58We did this a year ago.
43:59No, I mean, I think, yeah, you know, he's a...
44:03His whole modus operandi is, I mean, I don't know,
44:07I've never met a real mafia boss, but the ones in the movies, very reminiscent.
44:12Let's leave it there, Gideon and Ishan.
44:14I think we've got plenty of food for thought,
44:17and we'll wait and see where the mafia boss and his mafiosi take the world a year from now.
44:24We can only hope that we will at least see a few rays of light in what seems at the moment
44:32to be a rather difficult world.
44:35Ironically, the World Economic Forum has branded this year the spirit of dialogue.
44:41I don't know where the dialogue's coming in this world of perpetual, seemingly perpetual conflict.
44:47You would have suggested possibly a better title than the spirit of dialogue.
44:53Well, I mean, as I think Ishan was saying before we came on,
44:56you know, it's kind of a vain hope rather than a reality.
44:59But, I mean, I suppose all one could say is people are still talking
45:03because Trump will be here, the Secretary General of NATO will be here,
45:05Macron, etc.
45:07So they'll talk to each other.
45:08I'm not sure there'll be a positive outcome then.
45:11More often than not, world leaders at the moment seem to talk at each other
45:14rather than talk to each other.
45:16Ishan Tharoor, Gideon Rackman, great pleasure having you here at the DeVos.
45:22Bukesh Aagi, President and CEO, U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum.
45:27Thank you very much for joining us here in DeVos.
45:30Let's cut the chase and ask the straight question.
45:33We've had you a couple of times in the last few months,
45:36each time talking about the U.S.-India trade deal.
45:39Will it happen? Won't it happen?
45:40We are now in 2026.
45:42Are we any closer to sealing a deal than we were, let's say, a few months ago?
45:47Shani, I have to ask is, does a trade deal matter?
45:52And when you look at...
45:54Ah, that's an interesting point.
45:54We are changing the goalposts.
45:56After first saying, we want a trade deal.
45:58You're saying now, does a trade deal matter?
46:00But go ahead.
46:02The Indian side and the U.S. side have been negotiating many, many times.
46:08And I would say that it got concluded, went to the President,
46:14and he kind of changed the goalpost.
46:16And where we are now at the moment is almost final again.
46:21It will go to the President.
46:22He'll take a call.
46:23I believe we will have some kind of a trade deal in the next three months.
46:29That's the three months that we are pushing it.
46:31So we are looking at, what are we, January in April.
46:33And it won't be a full-blown trade deal in your view.
46:36It will be more limited.
46:38It will be a full-blown trade deal.
46:40Because what India is doing is, which the Europeans and others did not do,
46:46is we are getting to nuts and bolts,
46:48making sure that reciprocal trade terms are agreed upon.
46:53What are we going to agree on the agriculture side?
46:55So if you look at what has happened with the European trade deal,
46:58suddenly Trump said, I'll put 10% more penalty on Greenland.
47:02Whereas this one is going to be a sign deal between the two countries.
47:05Before Siddharth steps in, just to ask you, can we then trust Donald Trump?
47:10Given that, as you say, he's weaponized tariffs.
47:13He's using tariffs as a weapon.
47:15He's used it against India.
47:16So if you buy Russian oil, I put 25% penalty.
47:19He's gone.
47:20I had done that.
47:21Many of us would believe that that's hypocritical
47:23because other countries are trading with Russia,
47:25don't get the same penalties imposed on them.
47:27Are we dealing with someone who one simply can't trust?
47:34How does one trust Donald Trump to do a trade deal with him?
47:37Well, that's the question countries are asking.
47:39That is, when you come to terms and conditions, will that change?
47:44And we have seen in the case of European,
47:47they have agreement, 15% tariff, and suddenly 10% more tariff.
47:51And until June, they may basically take up another 25%.
47:56So the question everybody's asking is, is a trade deal, will it last?
48:02Because, you know, the messaging from the MAGA base of Donald Trump,
48:06the, you know, Make America Great Again,
48:09they seem to suddenly be sort of almost targeting the Indian immigrant.
48:13For all the remarkable work that Indian immigrants have done
48:16in the United States have built a reputation,
48:19suddenly in the last one year,
48:21you've had these seemingly intemperate remarks
48:24and attacks made on Indian Americans.
48:27Again, it comes back to it.
48:29How do you shut that out?
48:31How do you keep that out now?
48:33And just focus on your mutual interests?
48:35So, the small group have been very active on social media
48:41being anti-Indian American.
48:43But the vast majority of people are welcoming Indian Americans.
48:48And what's interesting is, if you notice,
48:50is that the 75 countries list where visa restriction was put on,
48:57India was not on that.
48:58That sends a message.
49:00But also the messaging that emerges and taking forward Rajdeep's points,
49:04people from the Trump circle,
49:06so the new U.S. ambassador to India started off,
49:10I think, absolutely in Indian cricketing parlance right on the front foot.
49:14He's batting on the crease.
49:17But they keep saying negative things,
49:20including the latest remarks from Peter Navarro on energy.
49:24And many of these confuse people that,
49:26what is going on?
49:29Is this like, almost like driven by racism?
49:33Mukesh, if I may put it that way?
49:35I think it's driven by ignorance.
49:37That's number one.
49:38It's driven by the success of Indian Americans
49:41because you have a migrating community
49:46for the first time in the history of America
49:48which has not gone on the economic low end.
49:51It has come straight up to the top.
49:54And today, the average American Indian salary
49:57is twice the national per capita income itself.
50:00Do people there realize, Mukesh,
50:03about the people who are going there
50:06and the kind of institutions that they get into
50:09and how tough it is to become an IIT in India?
50:12They're getting not the best of India.
50:13They're getting the best of the world, actually.
50:15Absolutely.
50:16And I think that's where we, as working with the media,
50:18had to communicate more.
50:20I think we're not also communicating that very much itself.
50:23But I just want to add one more thing to the data.
50:25Indian Americans make 1.5% of the U.S. population.
50:28They generate 6% of GDP.
50:32And if you look at three weeks ago,
50:33President Trump tweeted,
50:36people who, countries, immigrants,
50:38who are on the government dole system itself,
50:41Indian immigrants were not there,
50:43any of the list itself.
50:44Okay, those were just some of the conversations
50:46that we've had on day one
50:48of the World Economic Forum here in Davos.
50:50We'll be back tomorrow.
50:52The good news is the sun is shining.
50:54Let's hope that the darkness and the clouds
50:57that loom over the world order
50:59in this Trumpian age also blow away.
51:03Thanks for watching.
51:05Stay well.
51:06Stay safe.
51:07Jay Hind.
51:08Namaskar from Davos.
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