Trump's tariff war not rational, it's ideological: Top US foreign policy expert

5 months ago

In an exclusive interview with India Today, Ravi Agarwal, Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Policy, analyses Donald Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on India for purchasing Russian crude oil and more.

Transcript

00:00Joining me now is a very special guest. Ravi Agarwal is Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Policy,

00:04one of the world's leading global affairs magazines. He joins me from New York.

00:08Ravi, I appreciate your joining us. What is your sense of what the U.S. President

00:11Donald Trump has done with India over the last 48 hours, in particular hiking

00:16tariffs to 50%, linking it to India, buying Russian oil? What is Donald Trump really up to here?

00:23Raj Deepa, I'll be honest, it makes no strategic sense to me. For the last 25 years, as is well

00:31known to you and your viewers, the U.S.-India relationship has become stronger and stronger.

00:37And this bipartisan agreement, whether it's the BJP in Congress, whether it's Democrats and

00:42Republicans, that this is a relationship that just made sense for both sides to improve and to make

00:49stronger over time. What Trump has done on many levels, whether it is cozying up to Pakistan,

00:57whether it is rupturing the India-U.S. trade relationship, and now the secondary sanctions

01:04on India because of its purchases of Russian oil, it makes no sense to me for several reasons. But

01:11just on the oil question, most of all, Raj Deepa, what India has been saying, which is that why are you

01:17targeting us specifically, given that China buys more crude than India does from Russia, number one,

01:24and so does Turkey, so does Japan also buy crude from Russia. But number two, if India didn't buy

01:30Russian crude, it would need to buy it from elsewhere, which would lead to a rise in global

01:35crude prices, which would then hurt Donald Trump at home more than anyone else, because he cares

01:41so much about cheap petrol for people to drive in the summer. So, Raj Deepa, it genuinely doesn't add

01:49up. I would imagine that this is a negotiating tactic. But even that doesn't make sense, because

01:55in taking this hard line, he is worsening Indian public opinion against America and constraining the

02:02prime minister's options to even strike any sort of deal at this point.

02:08You know, let me ask you this, Ravi. Is this some kind of a personality disorder that we are dealing

02:13with here? Because Donald Trump could have done this out of a fit of pique, some believe, out of

02:17frustration with India. Has something suddenly changed for Donald Trump, who seemed, or so we thought,

02:23to have a good personal equation with Prime Minister Modi, for him to turn on India to the point where he

02:28calls India a dead economy? So, these are great questions to ask. I would be lying if I said I had

02:37clear answers. One can only guess. I will say this, Raj Deepa, there's a big difference between Trump

02:43one and Trump two. Trump two is less likely to have people around him who understand the intricacies of

02:53foreign relations, of geopolitics, the niceties of diplomacy. So, that's one thing. There are few

03:00people restraining Trump from his worst instincts. Two, Trump is not ideological about many things,

03:09and we've seen this in the way that he's flip-flopped on Russia in recent weeks, for example. But Trump is,

03:17I think, ideological on the issue of tariffs. There is now so much evidence, going back to the 1980s,

03:25that Trump genuinely believes that free trade is bad, that America was being ripped off by the rest

03:30of the world, and that Trump wanted to impose tariffs because he thinks this will rebalance the

03:37American economy. He believes this despite the disagreement of most mainstream economists in the

03:46United States and around the world, which is why I say this is ideological. It's not rational,

03:51it's ideological. You know, how then do you think should India respond to someone like this,

03:57someone who you suggest is waging now an ideological crusade on tariffs? How does India secure its national

04:03interests? Very difficult question. I don't think India has done much wrong so far. Look,

04:11and India has also been very open over the last three years about why it is purchasing Russian

04:18crude. It's been open to its own people about needing to purchase the cheapest crude out there.

04:23It's been open to the Americans as well. The Biden administration knew that this was happening,

04:28and they were okay with it because they too needed to control the global price of oil. So none of this

04:35should be a surprise. And this is why New Delhi is as confused as it is. In terms of what India should

04:40do, look, if India continues to buy Russian crude, the hit to the Indian economy is not as severe as some

04:49analysts have been suggesting. I think the difference between what India is paying for Russian crude and what

04:55it would pay for, say, Saudi crude is, you know, a 10 to 15% difference. Yes, that will hurt. Yes,

05:03it will cause pressure at the pump. But I think the Indian people would be likely to be willing to

05:09sustain that longer term. But India could also switch and it could buy oil from other sources over time,

05:19signal that it wants to do that to Trump and watch what happens in the markets. That will lead to

05:25a massive surge in the price of crude, which could then lead Trump to pivot. And that brings me to my

05:32last point. Sometimes, Rajdeep, waiting and just doing nothing might be the smartest ploy because we

05:38know that Trump often pivots on issue after issue. So maybe just keeping a cool head, not saying anything

05:47rash, knowing that this could revert to normal, and waiting and watching.

05:51You know, you said Trump can pivot at any time. I want to know what do you think made him pivot on

05:56Russia, for example? Till a few months ago, there was a sense that Trump and Putin were going to try

06:01trying to strike a deal, the war in Ukraine would get over. Now you've got Trump railing against Russia

06:07and Putin setting deadlines. What went wrong? Because that seems to be one reason why India is facing the

06:13backlash. So this one is a bit easier to explain than your other questions. I think Trump set himself

06:23expectations that were unrealistic. So, you know, on the campaign trail, he said, I can solve this

06:29war in one day. I can, you know, forge a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. I know the

06:36Russians very well. I know Putin very well. So he set up all these expectations. It has been seven months.

06:42He invested a lot of personal diplomacy, the diplomacy of his private envoy, Stephen Witkoff,

06:48who's met with the Russians several times. Trump also dressed down Ukrainian President Volodymyr

06:56Zelensky in the Oval Office. So Trump used up a lot of diplomatic capital and energy to make this

07:03happen, to make a peace deal happen, and nothing happened. And over time, over the last two months,

07:08we've seen him lament in public and private that Putin is dragging me along. Putin is making me look

07:15bad. And we know that there are few things Trump hates more than being made to look bad. So I think

07:22the switch that we're seeing on Russia is Trump recognizing that everything that's happened so far,

07:29trying to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, trying to give them the deal they want, it ain't

07:34going to work, it's going to make him look bad. And therefore, the alternative is what he needs to

07:39pivot towards. But here to Rajdeep, we should be careful. Trump is being tough on Russia. Sure,

07:46rhetorically, we haven't seen any real actual measures. And we're kind of back to where we were

07:54roughly a year ago under Biden. And that too, is a difficult path. So let's say you are going to be

08:00tough on Russia. Well, then you also need to arm the Ukrainians. And that's going to cost money.

08:05And that's going to cost diplomatic capital in Trump's own base, which doesn't want to arm the

08:10Ukrainians. So it could be that Trump may pivot again. We just don't know.

08:15What we also don't know, Ravi, is why is Donald Trump, and I want to realize,

08:19why has he 29 or 30 times insisted that he is the one who got a ceasefire between India and Pakistan?

08:26For some reason, there is a belief in India that he wants New Delhi to desperately acknowledge his

08:31role in somehow ending Operation Sindhur. Do you think that that's a factor here? Pakistan has

08:38already said Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize. Should India also be playing to his ego in some way

08:43and trying to give him credit for the ceasefire after Operation Sindhur?

08:48I think he wants that. Yes, Trump likes flattery. He loves to be known as a peacemaker,

08:54as a dealmaker. He's written a book called The Art of the Deal. This is something that is, you know,

09:00fundamentally something he cares about. I think the Pakistanis, like many others, the Ukrainians

09:05have done this too, were very clever, I think, to say, Mr. President, you should win the Nobel Peace

09:11Prize. That form of flattery is something a lot of leaders, a lot of CEOs have started doing. It's

09:17completely not genuine. It's duplicitous almost. But it seems to work with Trump. So that's why we are

09:26where we are. It is petty as well. Look, India, as you know better than anyone, Rajdeep, has invested

09:32so much diplomacy over the last 20, 25 years, telling successive American administrations,

09:39don't interfere in our internal affairs. We won't interfere in yours. Don't talk about Kashmir. Don't

09:45don't hyphenate India with Pakistan. This is so well known among, you know, Democrats and Republicans

09:52on the Hill. It is so well known among any staffers who deal with South Asian issues in the White House

09:59at the State Department. The problem is, Rajdeep, Trump isn't listening to them. So this what we're

10:04seeing is Trump on his own. I'm absolutely certain that there are people in the State Department who've

10:10sent him memos saying, don't do this. He's not following their advice, which is why this is so

10:15complicated for Indian diplomats and for anyone who believes in the diplomatic architecture anywhere

10:23in the world.

10:24Rajdeep Dhani, Ph.D.: Trump's equation with China, Ravi, and his mysterious relationship with Pakistan.

10:31Should India be worried about what Trump seems to be doing at the moment with China carrying on

10:36negotiations with them, hosting Aasem Munir in Pakistan? Is all of this somewhere affecting

10:42India's interests in your view?

10:43Rajdeep Dhani, Ph.D.: Look, Pakistan is a strange one. U.S.-Pakistan ties are not in America's strategic

10:52interests. So I'm befuddled that he met with Munir, General Munir. I'm befuddled that this has come

11:03up as much as it has. I've heard all the rumors about why these meetings are taking place. I have

11:10no evidence or proof to suggest that there's anything wrong afoot here. I'll just say we have

11:15to wait and watch this space. I believe in strategy. Strategically, America should favor relations with

11:22India, not Pakistan. Pakistan is a tiny economy in terms of counterterrorism, in terms of strategic

11:30interests in the region. There's not much there. Maybe Iran is the one thing Pakistan could help

11:35America with, but there's not enough there. China's a different case. I think there are growing signs

11:42that Trump may want to travel to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping for a big military parade there. I believe

11:50that that could be setting the groundwork for a broader normalization of ties between the two sides.

11:57That's entirely possible. And I don't necessarily think that's bad for the world. I don't necessarily

12:02think that's bad for India. A lot of good things can come out of it because remember,

12:08US-China tensions, were they to get really bad, that is not good for any country on earth.

12:13Most countries in the world count India, count the United States and China as among its top two trading

12:19partners. We all need them to get along. So personally, if Trump is opening some avenues

12:26to talk to the Chinese, let's encourage that and see where they land.

12:32You know, in conclusion, did India then misread Donald Trump or has the world actually misread Donald

12:38Trump 2.0. I don't think India's misread Trump fundamentally. I think India may have had a very

12:49good equation with Trump 1. And maybe India is now coming to terms as the rest of the world is

12:57with the fact that Trump 2 is a very different challenge. Trump 2 isn't listening to his advisers.

13:04Trump 2 has fewer advisers to begin with. Trump 2 is looking at a legacy now. Trump 2 is just more

13:12autonomous. He's gotten rid of many of the checks and balances that existed before. Trump 2 is also

13:18much more prepared than Trump 1. He knows what didn't work the first time around for him and has

13:23come in with a plan. He's come in with all the things he's wanted to do for the last four years. So am I

13:28going to say that India and other countries have underestimated or wrongly assessed Trump 2? I think

13:35that's harsh to say that, Rajdeep, because none of us expected this to turn out the way it did.

13:42But it is now and we have to recalibrate.

13:45Final question. What do you then expect in the near term? There was much talk about trade negotiations

13:50now taking place later this month, a 21-day window that Trump has given before possibly additional

13:56tariffs could set in. Do you believe an Indo-US trade deal is still possible by October end?

14:02I do. A mini deal of some sort is always possible. I will always favor calmer heads, negotiation,

14:14appealing to Trump's interests, appealing to mutual strategic interests. And we shouldn't forget in

14:21all of this, and I say this to you, but I say this to everyone watching, we shouldn't forget these are the

14:26two biggest democracies in the world. There are immense people-to-people ties. There are more than

14:32three million Indian Americans in the United States. These are two countries with growing defense ties,

14:37trade ties, technology ties. This is not the moment to throw that out of the window. This is the moment

14:43for both sides to appeal to the mutual interests they have and to the shared future they could have,

14:50and for the partnerships they could forge in the Indo-Pacific and more globally. Calmer heads need to

14:55prevail, and I think Trump will eventually come round. He is ultimately not completely irrational.

15:02Okay. Ultimately not completely irrational. Famous last word. Ravi Agarwal, always a pleasure talking

15:08to you for giving us that very fine worldview. Thank you so much for joining me from New York.

Trump's tariff war not rational, it's ideological: Top US foreign policy expert

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