00:00I am requested to kindly present the Ceremonial Shawl to the Honourable Minister.
00:06Our respected...
00:10It's an enormous privilege to be awarded the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Honoris Causa,
00:22that too from such a prestigious institution like the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta.
00:30Now, my own life has been spent in the study of international relations and the pursuit of diplomacy.
00:44This was initially as a student, then for more than four decades as a diplomat.
00:51Briefly, as I said, on the global side of business.
00:55And currently, as the Minister with the responsibility for the conduct of our foreign policy.
01:03In the course of this journey, my own understanding of this subject has evolved.
01:09And perhaps the sharpest realization is of the intricate connect between national capabilities and external aspirations.
01:22This is clearly not rocket science.
01:26But the complexity of that linkage and its relationship to policy options is something that is really brought home by experience.
01:37It is therefore natural that on an occasion like this,
01:43that too at an institution so deeply associated with our economic growth,
01:49that this should be the subject of my address.
01:53For many decades now, this connect that I have referred to has been conceptually articulated as comprehensive national power.
02:07A complex aggregation of multiple dimensions.
02:12It is a measure of a country's strength, of its quality of life, and of its ability to shape the world.
02:22Some aspects, like military or economic capacities, are more obvious.
02:28Others, like natural resources, niche technologies, or cultural impact, perhaps much less so.
02:36Occasionally, developing exceptional capabilities provide an added source of power.
02:47Now, conversely, allowing crucial vulnerabilities, such as neglect of border infrastructure,
02:55or indifference to industrialization, can be a great weakness.
02:59Let us turn to the global landscape and begin by recognizing the profound changes underway.
03:08This is an era where politics increasingly trumps economics.
03:14And that's not a pun.
03:17Decisions are now being made not merely on costs,
03:22but taking into account ownership and security.
03:26Where a product is made, or who offers a service,
03:32is as important as their price points.
03:36When de-risking overrides the logic of efficiency,
03:41the mantra of just-in-time
03:44actually gives place
03:46to the caution of just-in-case.
03:49Of course, globalization still exists,
03:53because it's too far gone to be rolled back.
03:57But, with powerful counter-forces today brought into play.
04:03Far from being an aberration,
04:06these trends have only just started,
04:09and will probably pick up pace in times to come.
04:13Now, let's turn our attention
04:15to some key elements of this transformation,
04:18which actually make for a less rule-bound
04:21and a more fragmented world.
04:25The United States,
04:28long the underwriter of the contemporary system,
04:32has set radically new terms of engagement.
04:34Not just that.
04:37It is doing so by dealing with countries
04:40on a one-on-one basis,
04:41rather than through regimes.
04:44China has long played by its own rules,
04:48and is now doing so even more.
04:51In the ensuing scenario,
04:54other nations are unclear
04:56on whether their attention should be
04:58on the visible competition,
05:00or the trade-offs and understandings
05:02that punctuate them.
05:05Faced with such pulls and pressures
05:08of globalization,
05:10of fragmentation,
05:11and of supply insecurity,
05:13the rest of the world responds
05:16by hedging against all contingencies.
05:20Even as it engages the United States
05:23and China directly,
05:25choices are avoided where feasible,
05:28and choices are made when beneficial.
05:30Simultaneously,
05:33other options between themselves
05:35are explored with greater urgency.
05:39One sign of that
05:40is the uptick in the enthusiasm today
05:44for free trade agreements
05:46across geographies.
05:50Now, while all of this is happening,
05:53the global picture is by no means static.
05:55Europe and Asia
05:58are reassessing
06:00their respective strategic predicaments.
06:03The very landscape in the Middle East
06:05has undergone a transformation.
06:08The importance of partnering Africa's growth
06:11is more widely recognized.
06:14And as distances become less relevant,
06:17new opportunities are visualized
06:19in Latin America.
06:20Now, please also bear in mind
06:24that the relative weight of nations
06:27in different domains
06:28is also undergoing a major change.
06:31Whether it is manufacturing,
06:34energy, trade, finance, technology,
06:37natural resources,
06:39connectivity, or mobility,
06:41the world is not what it was,
06:44say, just a decade ago.
06:45A third of global production
06:50currently takes place in China.
06:54This has put the spotlight
06:56on the resilience and reliability
06:58of supply chains.
07:01Conflicts and climate events
07:03have added to the possibility
07:05of their disruption.
07:07When it comes to energy,
07:09the U.S. has gone
07:10from being a major importer
07:13to a significant exporter
07:15of fossil fuels.
07:17At the same time,
07:19China dominates
07:20the world of renewables.
07:22Where trade is concerned,
07:24supply-side risks
07:25are aggravated
07:27by demand-side uncertainty.
07:30The salience of tariff rates
07:31to trade prospects
07:33has obviously heightened volatility.
07:36And as for finance,
07:38the prolific application
07:39of sanctions,
07:40the seizure of assets
07:42at the advent
07:43of blockchain-based technologies
07:45are today part
07:47of the new realities.
08:11Thank you very much for your visit.
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