A new survey of the country's top business executives shows the private sector grappling with short-term financial pressure but preparing for recovery in the year ahead. The findings come from the Business Outlook Index for the fourth quarter of 2025.
00:00The Chamber of Industry and Commerce and the Arthur Lockjack School of Business produced its Quarter 4 Business Outlook Index on TNT, which paints a picture of an economy under stress but not without hope.
00:14The index involved fielding responses from 100 executives for the survey, which measures confidence across six key areas, including financial performance, investment, employment, and both local and global economic outlooks.
00:31More than half of the respondents, 54% to be exact, said their company's financial performance worsened over the past six months.
00:41Yet, despite those declines, most remain optimistic about where their organizations are headed over the next six to 12 months, both financially and in terms of investment.
00:54On the topic of employment, executives expect staffing levels to remain steady in the short term but turn positive within a year.
01:03That suggests businesses are preparing to expand cautiously.
01:07However, the picture shifts when the food and service sector is isolated.
01:13After the increase in excise duties on alcohol and tobacco in the 2026 budget, confidence dropped and hiring expectations weakened sharply.
01:23Confidence in the local economy remains generally negative for both the six-month and 12-month outlook, reflecting ongoing structural changes.
01:32But sentiment toward the global economy shifts from pessimistic in the short term to positive one year out, potentially signaling hope for improved markets, demand, and export conditions.
01:46When asked about the new government administration, 24% of the executives said they were uncertain about which areas would see the greatest improvement.
01:55Only small percentages pointed to better access to foreign exchange, that's 16%, 14% pointed to improved ease of doing business, and there was enhanced public-private collaboration.
02:09The report concludes that while businesses are currently navigating economic strain, they are positioning for investment-led growth over the medium term, but only if policy clarity improves and private-public partnership engagements strengthen.
02:26The Business Outlook Index will be tracked quarterly, giving analysts a clearer indication on whether confidence strengthens or slips as the new year approaches.
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