A US aircraft carrier strike group arrived in the Latin America region on Tuesday, escalating a military buildup that Venezuela has warned could trigger a full-blown conflict. Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Brian Finucane, Senior Adviser for the US Program at Crisis Group, says the Trump administration is using "a rhetoric of counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics to cloak a regime-change programme".
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00:00This is apropos. The escalation has triggered fears in Venezuela of a full-blown conflict with the United States.
00:10An American naval strike force featuring the world's largest warship has arrived in the Caribbean as Caracas announces its own massive deployment.
00:20At least 76 people have been killed since the U.S. began striking boats initially in the Caribbean
00:25and more recently in the eastern Pacific where vessels off Mexico have been targeted
00:31with the stated aim of countering drug trafficking.
00:34With the latest, here's Lisa Kamenov.
00:38It's over 330 metres in length with 4,500 sailors on board.
00:45The world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is the latest arrival in the Caribbean.
00:51A U.S. naval build-up off the coast of Venezuela is raising tensions in the region.
00:58The Trump administration says it's preparing for an anti-drug offensive,
01:02deploying warships, submarines and fighter jets near the Venezuelan coast.
01:07With heavy U.S. military presence at its shores,
01:11Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signed a defence law on Tuesday calling for military readiness.
01:16If we, as a republic, as a people, have to take up arms to defend this sacred legacy of our liberators,
01:29we are ready to win.
01:33Venezuelan Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino claims to have rallied 200,000 armed forces
01:39to participate in military exercises to counter what he calls imperial threats.
01:45Meanwhile, neighbour Colombia also denounced Donald Trump's military build-up in the region,
01:50calling for an investigation into Trump's war crimes,
01:53which it says has affected citizens of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago.
01:59Its president, Gustavo Petro, ordered his security forces to stop sharing intelligence with the U.S.
02:06until U.S. strikes on suspected drug traffickers seize.
02:09All levels of law enforcement intelligence are ordered to suspend all communications
02:14and other dealings with U.S. security agencies.
02:18Since September, U.S. forces have targeted about 20 vessels in international waters,
02:23killing over 75 people, according to U.S. figures.
02:27Trump recently downplayed the prospect of going to war with Venezuela,
02:31yet has warned that President Maduro's days are numbered.
02:34For more, we're joined now by Brian C. Finucane,
02:39Senior Advisor for the U.S. Programme at the International Crisis Group.
02:43Brian, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
02:46Firstly, how significant is the arrival of this aircraft carrier,
02:51the world's largest in these waters in the Caribbean?
02:54How much higher does it raise the stakes here?
02:57Well, it's a significant step in the pressure campaign waged by the U.S. government
03:03against Maduro in Venezuela,
03:06a pressure campaign with the ultimate objective of regime change.
03:10And is it an indication, as some observers have suggested,
03:14that military action might be imminent?
03:17Or is it simply, do you think, a further flexing of the U.S.'s military muscle?
03:22We don't know.
03:25Certainly, the U.S. president has alluded to and mentioned the possibility of conducting not just
03:31strikes at sea, but also strikes on land.
03:35Concerningly, the U.S. government has referred to not just the victims of these boat strikes as
03:40supposed narco-terrorists, but also Nicolas Maduro himself.
03:43They've labeled him a narco-terrorist.
03:45And they've alleged that Maduro leads the so-called Cartel de los Soles,
03:50which is comprised of senior, allegedly comprised of senior Venezuelan military officers,
03:55which the U.S. government has also labeled a terrorist organization.
03:59So they're using the rhetoric of counterterrorism and counter-narcotics to cloak a regime change
04:06program.
04:07And the concern is that there may actually be direct U.S. military action against Venezuela.
04:12But reportedly, the president has yet to decide on that course of action.
04:14And is there a danger here, Trump?
04:17We all know how unpredictable Donald Trump is.
04:20He seems to change his mind, you know, sometimes from day to day.
04:24Is there a chance that he and the U.S. will somehow stumble into war here?
04:31Certainly.
04:32There is ample potential for accident or miscalculation with these deployments,
04:37an incident potentially between Venezuelan armed forces and U.S. armed forces at sea.
04:42And as you said, the president is difficult to predict and could change his mind about this
04:47whole regime change project and order the removal of U.S. forces from the Caribbean.
04:52Or alternatively, he could carry through with his musings about strikes on land.
04:56And so it's a moment of what should be great concern for the American public and for the
05:01U.S. Congress, which actually has the legal authority over these uses of force.
05:05The legal authority of the White House has usurped here.
05:07And concerns also being raised here in Europe.
05:11The Secretary of State, U.S. Secretary of State, he might be facing questions from allies
05:15over the legality of these military operations that the U.S. has been carrying out in the
05:20Caribbean, in the Pacific.
05:22In your view, do the strikes violate international law?
05:27Washington claims that they don't.
05:29Well, a broad range of international legal experts, former U.S. government lawyers who
05:36advise on counterterrorism, and figures of the United Nations have condemned these strikes as
05:42unlawful, condemned them as exjudicial killings.
05:45It's very notable that the United Kingdom reportedly suspended some intelligence sharing
05:50with the U.S. government over its legal concerns about these strikes.
05:54And it indicates to me that the U.S. government has just been unable to put forward a convincing
05:58legal argument to foreign allies and partners to justify these strikes.
06:04And the Colombian president also now ordering his security forces to stop sharing intelligence
06:09with the United States.
06:10What kind of consequences might that have?
06:14Well, I think it's to be determined exactly how that will play out in terms of U.S.-Colombian
06:19relations.
06:20But I think it's indicative of broader concern around the world by many U.S.
06:24partners and allies about these strikes, about U.S. policy towards Venezuela, and whether the
06:31United States will, in fact, engage in an illegal attack upon that country.
06:35And if that happens, I think you might see further restrictions in cooperation with the
06:40U.S. due to additional legal concerns.
06:42And do you think Nicolas Maduro himself is taking the threat seriously?
06:47You know, we've been seeing in public comments that he's trying to downplay all of this, but
06:51at the same time deploying significant resources himself with this threat looming.
06:59Based on both public reporting and what I hear from my international crisis group colleagues
07:03in the region, it does seem as though Maduro is taking the threat of potential U.S. military
07:07action seriously.
07:09And again, it's concerning that the U.S. government has labeled not just people in these boats
07:13as narco-terrorists, but also Nicolas Maduro himself.
07:16That could potentially pave the way for U.S. military action directly against Maduro.
07:22And do you think it's possible that he will eventually be forced to resign or perhaps forced
07:27into exile?
07:28How do you think all of this is going to play out?
07:31So I think the hope on the part of the U.S. government, and this is a policy largely driven
07:37by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but the hope was this military buildup in the Caribbean,
07:41this flexing the gunboat diplomacy would convince Maduro to step aside or embolden some in his
07:48government to oust him.
07:49That obviously has not happened yet, and I see no evidence that it is likely to happen in
07:53the near future.
07:54And therefore, that tees up the potential for further escalation, again, including potential
07:59direct attacks by the U.S. on Venezuela to further ratchet up the pressure.
08:05And you mentioned Marco Rubio there.
08:06Is all of this being driven essentially by the U.S. Secretary of State?
08:10Is there evidence of any kind of internal divisions in Washington?
08:15So there are multiple views within the Trump administration.
08:18At the moment, the U.S. Secretary of State is understood to be driving U.S.-Venezuela policy,
08:25understood to be behind the military buildup.
08:28But the president may change his mind.
08:30The president in the past has changed his mind with respect to U.S. military operations.
08:34In the spring, he did a U-turn on the U.S. bombing campaigning against the Houthis in Yemen
08:38and called an abrupt end to that.
08:40So it's possible that the president will change his mind and grow tired of Secretary of State
08:45Rubio's regime change project in Venezuela.
08:48And if the regime change project is successful, what then for Venezuela if Maduro is overthrown
08:55or does go into exile?
08:59Well, it's highly uncertain.
09:01And the path from ousting Maduro to stable democracy is not necessarily going to be a clean
09:07or a neat one.
09:08And so there should be no illusions in Washington that regime change would be an easy or clean
09:17policy approach.
09:19It hasn't turned out that way the last 20 plus years in the U.S. military inventions in the
09:23Middle East.
09:24There's no particular reason to think it will turn out that way in Venezuela.
09:27There is a real chance then that the country would be further destabilized by such an outcome.
09:32Is there any scenario where it might actually be in a better position without Maduro?
09:39I mean, this is all highly speculative, but certainly in some scenarios, it could be better
09:46outcomes than others.
09:47But again, it's highly uncertain that U.S. military intervention would succeed in ousting
09:53Maduro.
09:53It's highly uncertain that it would lead to a better situation for the people of Venezuela,
09:59for the people of the region, or even in terms of President Trump's own state interests.
10:03The president has emphasized his concerns about illegal immigration from Venezuela, about
10:07drug trafficking, and his interest in Venezuela, you know, petroleum.
10:11U.S. military intervention against Venezuela could actually be detrimental in terms of all
10:15of those interests if it destabilized the country.
10:18And is there a risk here?
10:19We're seeing, of course, today Donald Trump coming under pressure.
10:22The Epstein files, again, very much on the agenda here.
10:26Is there a risk that he might act, you know, rather hastily here as perhaps a distraction
10:33tactic?
10:34Or what do you think, how is this going to play out over the next few days, do you think?
10:40I mean, it should be deeply concerned that we even have to have this conversation.
10:44But no, I do think that's a risk.
10:45And that is inherent in the fact that the U.S. president has accumulated tremendous unilateral
10:52power to wield military force without the approval of the U.S. Congress.
10:57We've seen that repeatedly under this president, the strikes on Iran over the summer, the strikes
11:03on Yemen, the strikes at sea.
11:05So there appear to be very few working guardrails within this administration restricting the
11:10president from taking military action, even when it would be illegal.
11:13And so it's hard to predict, you know, how the president will wield that.
11:18And it's always a possibility.
11:21Brian, we'll have to leave it there for now.
11:22But thank you so much for being with us on the program.
11:24That's Brian Finucane, senior advisor for the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group.
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