00:00Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Mertz has warned that Europe must reduce its reliance on the United States in response to Washington's new national security strategy.
00:10The document criticizes Europe, alleging that it censors free speech and suppresses anti-immigration movements.
00:18The question of what this means for our security cooperation is obviously the most important question.
00:23It confirms my assessment that we in Europe, and therefore also in Germany, must become much more independent from the U.S. in terms of security policy.
00:34Let's talk to Sean Bell, the retired air vice-marshal and military analyst.
00:39Sean, welcome back to the program.
00:42There you are.
00:43Trump's given an interview to Politico where he describes Europe as decaying, led by weak people.
00:50He goes on to say, Europe doesn't know what to do, they talk but they don't produce, the war just keeps on going on and on.
00:58Is Trump right?
01:01Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie.
01:03I mean, it is interesting to reflect that since the Second World War, 80 years ago, the U.S. has been the foundation of NATO, which Europeans have generally exploited.
01:13Now, the Ukraine problem is not a NATO problem.
01:16You know, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it's on the European mainland, therefore it's a European problem.
01:22And unfortunately, Europe isn't the United States of Europe, it's a bunch of different countries with different politics, different languages and the like.
01:30And that diverse set of nations has largely been held together so far by America's money and influence.
01:36But of course, now, America's saying, come on, Europe, you need to step up and respond.
01:41And a good example of that, I think, is Ukraine is getting money.
01:44I mean, it doesn't need money, it needs weapons.
01:46The Russians have got their war economy on a war footing, but Europe has yet to do that.
01:52And at the moment, as they say, it's soldiers that win battles, but it's industry, it is factories that win wars.
01:58And at the moment, Europe hasn't stepped up to the plate.
02:01OK, well, given that, and following those Downing Street talks between Zelensky, Starmer, Macron and Mertz, where does all of this leave Ukraine?
02:11Well, I think it's fascinating seeing the dynamics of those talks that are happening in Downing Street and Zelensky moving around Europe,
02:19because it almost feels like Sir Keir Starmer and others are trying to walk a fine balance to keep Trump engaged, but not agree a surrender plan.
02:28Let's be quite clear, that 26-point plan, 28-point plan, was largely a surrender plan.
02:33Putin is winning on the battlefield, as your correspondent was saying earlier with Sasha.
02:37The snag, of course, is why would Putin stop at the moment, unless the negotiation gave him everything he thinks he's going to win anyway.
02:46The problem, I think, is Trump seems to view this as a negotiation as it was real estate or industry, whereas the harsh reality, this isn't that.
02:54This is blood, this is sacrifice, this is communities.
02:58But bluntly, unfortunately, Jamie, as you know, there are no good options for Ukraine at this stage.
03:03Why are some EU leaders, we've just talked about Friedrich Mertz of Germany,
03:09openly arguing that Europe must become much more independent of the United States in security policy?
03:16I think part of it is seeing the way that this negotiation is playing out.
03:23Unfortunately, America's largely sidelined the Europeans and is talking directly to Russia, and even sidelining Ukraine.
03:30Now, EU, the European Union, the European nations, know that if the war is ended with Russia,
03:36they'll have to live with the consequences of that.
03:39And if it's a surrender document, President Trump may well see out the rest of his time,
03:43and there wouldn't be a further war in Europe, but Europeans know that actually a vulnerable Ukraine
03:48is a vulnerable Europe, and therefore they want to use their influence, both economic and military,
03:54to have a say.
03:54Now, at the moment, I have to say, as a former warfighter, the one thing Europe lacks is credibility.
04:00There is no agreed line.
04:02They're not upping their industrial base to produce the weapons that are vital.
04:05And, of course, with America appearing increasingly shaky, potentially, as was reported earlier,
04:12potentially even considering walking away from this, the Europeans are going to be faced with a really stark choice.
04:18Sean, thank you for that.
04:20Sean Bell, the retired Air Vice Marshal and military analyst.
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