00:00Sean, welcome back. Is this the beginning of the end?
00:05Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. There's a lot of hope, isn't there, in the air that this is the beginning of the end.
00:11I have to say I'm somewhat sceptical.
00:13I do think what's going to be fascinating, though, not only that it's Alaska, only 55 miles between Russia and America,
00:20Putin will be saying, well, look, we sold Alaska to you, America, back in 1867.
00:26So borders do change, and therefore, you know, we're here to discuss the change of border around Ukraine.
00:33I think this is really simple, though. It's the dynamics of how firm Trump is prepared to be.
00:39Trump has the levers to stop this war, both militarily and economically.
00:44Does he want to use them? And the thing for Putin is just how much is his economy hurting at the moment?
00:50How much will he be wanting to avoid crippling further sanctions and the potential that his Russian population would just start to question whether this war was smart in the first place?
01:01Best case scenario from the summit?
01:03Well, that's a tricky one, Jamie. I think if you are keen on ending the war, then I think there's a not a bad chance that Trump will appease President Putin,
01:17come up with a trade deal and find some way to bring the war to an end.
01:21The trouble is that might be the best case for President Trump.
01:24It might be the best case for President Putin, but it might not be the best case for Zelensky or European leaders,
01:31because although the war might stop, the motives behind it haven't abated,
01:36and the Ukrainians will be desperately concerned about in one, two, five years' time whether Putin just re-strengthens and come again.
01:46He has learnt a lot about the fragility of NATO, he's learnt a lot about, he's got his wartime economy now, and he's got Europe worried.
01:54So I'm not sure it's easy to categorise as best and worst case at this stage.
01:59If the talks fail, then what?
02:02I hope that President Trump's frustration will turn into recognising that he does have the levers to stop this war.
02:14I'm not suggesting in one minute he'll want to get NATO or America directly involved militarily,
02:19but it's pretty clear that if he was to impose 100% sanctions tariffs on any nation that's dealing with Russian oil,
02:27that that would cripple the Russian economy, and very, very swiftly Russia will be forced to the negotiating table
02:33to find some way of negotiating peace.
02:37The problem is, at the moment, Russia is on the front foot on the battlefields, we're hearing every day of advances,
02:43more and more people are dying, and despite Ukraine initially being very stoical,
02:48last time I was out there, there was definitely this sense of war weariness and just wanting an appetite to bring this to an end.
02:55But the war fighting might stop soon, but that doesn't mean, say, we're any safer in Europe.
03:00How pleased will Donald Trump's supporters back home be with the mention of U.S. security guarantees
03:07and whatever that looks like, and however much it costs?
03:13I think the crucial matter for Ukraine, President Zelensky, and he's been pretty clear about this,
03:18is that whilst he's said publicly he's not prepared to negotiate around territory,
03:22I think he's a pragmatist at heart, and it's very difficult to see at this stage how he would get territory back.
03:29The key issue, though, is security guarantees, because if he doesn't get those,
03:34it's pretty clear it'll be a struggle for Ukraine to join NATO,
03:38but are there bilateral, tri-natural alliances of the willing that are prepared to offer those guarantees to Ukraine?
03:45Because without those, Ukraine would look incredibly vulnerable in two, three, five years' time,
03:51when Russia has another go.
03:53Sean, I'm sure we'll chew the fat further as the hours pass,
03:58but for the moment, thank you.
04:00Sean Bell, the military analyst.
04:02The wife and her congress and over all,
04:04I'm sure we'll see that they'll be a little bit more worried when Roger's been won last.
04:08And we'll see that when the world can get those doubts.
04:09Of course, you'll have five and more Closed vezpbrushes.
04:11But everybody will try to get those, but I'm happy to see that the Force was what he has found.
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