00:00Let's first start by talking about Ukraine. We've seen a lot of cabinet shift happening here in recent days. A
00:05new prime minister picked as well. What does that tell you just about the broader strategy that Ukraine has as
00:10it continues kind of ramp up attacks on on Russia. Yeah well Zelensky throughout the entire war over the last
00:15four years has wanted to make sure he has the right people in the job. And he has had many
00:21moments throughout the last four years where he's decided to make switches either at the Ministry of Defense or as
00:28his chief national security advisor.
00:30And that's not entirely uncommon given the challenges that he's facing. What's interesting about the most recent decision to get
00:37rid of the minister of defense very young one is that it's triggering public protests. This was a minister of
00:45defense that had a big following. He was the guy that was going to continue Ukraine's evolution and innovate and
00:53allow the Ukrainian military to be the most technically savvy out there. But he ran into some issues with the
00:59some of those older army generals. There was so much friction that I think Zelensky decided he needed to move
01:06on. Talk about military strategy. And I think Ukraine has been rightly lauded for how it's pioneered a lot of
01:11new technology. And we're seeing them use longer range drones longer range drones now to go to Moscow and St.
01:16Petersburg. What's your sense just of the contours of this war at this point. Does Ukraine have the upper hand
01:21as you see it.
01:22It sure feels like it. I mean, I think Ukraine rightly is being portrayed as a winner right now.
01:28It doesn't mean that they're winning the war and they're taking back hundreds of kilometers of territory. That's not happening
01:35on the ground. But not only are they holding territory now and occasionally moving forward and pushing back on those
01:42Russian forces, they're producing a lot of their own kit, not just drones, but full on air defense systems.
01:49They just got a license to produce Patriot Pac-3 missiles. We'll see how that unfolds. I'm a little skeptical.
01:56We'll see. But also, as you noted, we've seen these long range strikes deep into Russian territory that is waking
02:04up kind of the people of Russia to this war in Moscow, in St. Petersburg.
02:09They're starting to understand that their country is at war in ways, frankly, I think they've kind of missed over
02:17the last four years. So it feels like we're seeing a shift. The momentum appears to be on Ukraine's side.
02:24The question is, can they sustain that? And will the U.S. pressure Russia to get back to the negotiating
02:31table to find some sort of resolution here?
02:34You mentioned those Patriot missiles and the announcement of that license being given to Ukraine took place at the NATO
02:38summit in Ankara.
02:40And I'm curious, you as a former ambassador, how you watched all of that unfold, a very short summit this
02:44year. But it does seem like President Trump emerged from it quite positive about the alliance in a way that
02:49he hasn't been previously.
02:50Yeah, that's right. It looked a little bit like the Hague summit. It was abbreviated, kind of a social dinner
02:57that was, you know, casual night before. Leaders could just have some time with one another.
03:02President had some time with President Erdogan. He likes Erdogan. That was a plus. And then the next day, a
03:08single session where they essentially reviewed how much progress they've made on defense spending.
03:14The president arrived quite unhappy, had a lot of grievances against particular allies. But at the end of the summit,
03:22he left talking about the love in the room.
03:24And the question always is, does that hold? And how will that play into the forced posture decisions that are
03:33coming down the pike later this calendar year?
03:37And allies are hopeful that that kind of positive energy towards the alliance will prevent President Trump from doing anything
03:46rash when it comes to U.S. troops in Europe.
03:49You have an abbreviated summit like this one, and it kind of limits what allies are able to talk about.
03:54And something that the U.S. has floated is this vision of NATO 3.0.
03:58What is it? Does it make sense to you? It sounds like it's NATO with the U.S. taking kind
04:02of less of a vanguard role.
04:03Yeah, it's hard because it emerged, the phrase emerged in a speech, and I think the administration is still fleshing
04:12out what it means in practice.
04:13But essentially, you've got NATO at the creation to protect NATO territory from Soviet aggression.
04:202.0 could be after 9-11, the alliance decided to focus on counterterrorism, get engaged in a 20-year
04:28mission in Afghanistan.
04:293.0, I guess I would describe it as a bit of a coming home, focused on NATO territory again
04:36in the war on Ukraine, paired with Europe moving into a new role to take more responsibility for the security
04:44of Europe.
04:45How that plays out over time, we'll have to see. I mean, you've got U.S. disengagement and a push
04:51by Europeans to do more.
04:53The question is, is there a period of vulnerability in there that Putin could potentially take advantage of?
05:00A proponent of this strategy has been Elbridge Colby, who's the undersecretary of defense for policy, and he recently also
05:06weighed on middle powers and kind of the coherent, the effort that Prime Minister Mark Carney and others have advocated
05:12for kind of having them come together to kind of advocate for themselves.
05:15What did you make of the pushback that he offered on that point? He did it on social media, but
05:19effectively, he said he doesn't think that there's really much cohesion to that group whatsoever, and it's a waste of
05:24time.
05:24Yeah, I found that curious and a little bit, frankly, out of touch with the reality of what we're seeing.
05:31I mean, we had two European leaders write this piece in The Economist.
05:35You had the Prime Minister of Canada and the President of Finland join forces and draft a piece that essentially
05:41said, because of the fact that the U.S.'s role in Europe is changing and evolving,
05:47and we're moving on from this kind of order that we all created after World War II, we're entering a
05:54new phase where smaller groups of countries will come together on specific topics, whether it's AI or China or something
06:01else, cyber security, and we'll work together in different configurations.
06:06Not everything will be at NATO. Not everything will be at the European Union or the G7, but that's going
06:12to be the wave of the future. I found that rooted in fact.
06:15I also found it rooted in the understanding that the U.S. is disengaging and rebalancing its relationship.
06:23So when Bridge Colby came out and talked about the fact that this either is a waste of time or
06:30not happening, it just, to me, doesn't reflect the reality.
06:35Europe is worried about our unpredictability right now. They are not certain that we would show up in Europe if
06:42there was a crisis.
06:43And for that reason, they are looking at new models, and I don't think that necessarily has to be a
06:49bad thing.
06:50How do you personally feel about that disengagement as you describe it? I mean, the consequences of that, of Europe,
06:55again, looking at us perhaps as a less reliable partner
06:58and having to chart a path forward that doesn't include the U.S. in the way in which it has
07:01in the past.
07:02Well, two things. One, I'm pleased that the Trump administration has moved the allies to 5% and everyone is
07:09spending more on defense.
07:10Those efforts have to be applauded. But the way in which this administration has treated its allies has created a
07:18lot of mistrust.
07:19The episode over Greenland has done lasting damage to the relationship for the largest and most influential member of the
07:27alliance to go after the sovereign territory,
07:30even for a few months, of another NATO ally really sent a shock through the alliance.
07:36And I think we're now seeing the consequences of that play out in real time.
07:41So let's celebrate the defense spending. But I think let's be concerned. I'm concerned about how Europeans are looking at
07:49us and whether or not they think we're reliable.
07:53You mentioned that spending. And I'm curious, as we've lived through many of these summits now year by year, are
07:58we at a point now where we stop talking about that as much as we have?
08:00I know that there's kind of a sense going into these summits. President Trump's going to come. This is what
08:04he's going to harp on.
08:04And indeed he did at this most recent summit in Turkey. Now that we've seen the elevation of those commitments,
08:10say for say for Spain, do you feel like we kind of can move past that
08:14and we can have more constructive conversations at summits in the future? Well, I would hope so because NATO does
08:19a lot other than focus on defense spending.
08:21And we will have to keep our foot on the gas and make sure that all countries are moving out
08:25and trying to meet the targets.
08:27But I would want to see the alliance do more on some of those gray zone challengers or hybrid challenges,
08:33things like cyber security,
08:35or malign influence, coercion, cutting undersea cables, airspace violations. There's a lot of other work to be doing at the
08:43alliance.
08:43So, yes, focus on the defense spending. Make sure everybody's hitting the mark. But don't lose sight of all the
08:50other good work that's going on at the alliance.
08:52Ambassador Smith, thank you very much. Thank you. Great to speak with you. Great to see you.
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