00:00Let's bring in Gregoire Roos, who's Director of Europe, Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.
00:06Gregoire, thanks for being with us. We've got a lot to cover, so I'll keep my questions short.
00:10Starting with the Greenland situation, can Europe now afford to sort of breathe a sigh of relief?
00:15Or should, as Emmanuel Macron says, Europe remain vigilant?
00:20Well, obviously both. I think we have seen quite of an intense week.
00:25And interestingly enough, although it's true in your reportage a few moments ago, you stressed that there was no real alignment or consensus between the 27 heads of state and government.
00:42We've seen a kind of convergence in terms of messaging to Donald Trump that Europe is really willing to take its destiny in its own hands and pay the price for it.
00:52And we even got to hear the President of the European Commission call of independence, which is something you would never have imagined, certainly not from a German national.
01:00So things are changing. Of course, they're changing by European status, very slow, but they are changing.
01:06And secondly, to answer your question more properly, they have bought time.
01:10And I think they have bought time in a rather smart fashion.
01:14So without real fuss, but by at last taking the full measure of the power on which they have been sitting for so long, their single market and the dependencies that many around the world entertain vis-a-vis the single market.
01:29Actually, China and the U.S. are dependent on the single market for different reasons.
01:34And if you read the national security strategy released last December, it clearly states that the transatlantic bond in terms of trade is the backbone of not just the U.S. economy, but future U.S. economic prosperity.
01:47So Europe can, too, weaponize such a thing as the economy and actually as their single market.
01:54So in this regard, I would say it's a success.
01:58Of course, they need to remain vigilant because with Donald Trump, what we have, I think, got to measure it by now is that there's a lot of volatility, versatility.
02:09And therefore, what is off the table today can be back on the table tomorrow.
02:14And the best way of keeping Terence as high as possible is to also show that Europe is prepared for any kind of scenario.
02:23So the kind of military exercises that we're set to see in Greenland, is that going to exacerbate the situation?
02:32I'm not so sure.
02:33I mean, you might have read that although this is not really a formal meeting of the European Council, the European heads of state and government have decided to proceed with the negotiations and with the U.S., the transatlantic U.S.-EU trade deal.
02:49I think that shows one thing, that the EU really wants to remain a reliable partner and want to abide by its commitments.
02:59That's the first thing.
03:00The second, that the EU is not really willing to, I'd say, fuel more market instability.
03:07It's certainly not what the EU needs at the moment.
03:09And third, that it wants to avoid giving Donald Trump some arguments to, you know, pretendlessly show that Europe is not a reliable partner and deserves to be somehow punished and cannot be trusted.
03:24So I think it's rather smart.
03:27But as you've just said in a moment ago, it will be crucial now to move quickly, to make sure that the first pillars of strategic autonomy are really being built as fast as possible.
03:40Time is one thing.
03:41I think this is checked and successfully so.
03:44Political and policy delivery is another thing.
03:47And this is where political leadership and to go back to the speech of President Zelensky, determination and resolve will matter.
03:55Indeed, Zelensky, of course, was very critical of Europe in his speech.
04:00Not at all of Donald Trump, it seemed.
04:02But he didn't pull his punches, did he, in his criticism of Europe and the way it's behaved over the past year?
04:09I found it a fascinating speech.
04:12Actually, I had to watch it because I was on your TV channel at the same time.
04:15So actually, I had to watch it live.
04:18I must say it was fascinating.
04:19First of all, I must say I've never seen President Zelensky so jovial, so cheerful than he was this afternoon.
04:26So I cannot imagine that the meeting with Donald Trump didn't go well.
04:30I guess he heard things that he might not have hoped to hear.
04:33So, you know, in this regard, we should be happy for him and therefore for Ukraine and for European security.
04:39The second is that what we, of course, refrain from doing in the think tank community is to working with our emotions.
04:50If I were working with my emotions, I would tell you that this was an incredibly, an incredible speech that was a bit harsh on Europe, to be honest.
05:01But this is something we should really avoid in geopolitical analysis.
05:08So what he said was spot on.
05:12And if I, you know, closing my eyes, wondering who was speaking or just reading the speech,
05:17I could have thought that this was a freshly elected head of state of government of one of the 27 member states of the European Union.
05:25He is not. He's an aspiring head of government, head of state of a potentially future member state of the European Union.
05:34The real question for me is really, you can say everything.
05:38I'm not sure you can say everything anywhere.
05:40And the audience matters.
05:42You know, European leaders, Bob de Viva spoke on a panel.
05:45Chancellor Merz spoke later this afternoon.
05:48President Macron yesterday.
05:50President von der Leyen two years ago, two days ago.
05:52They really tried in very different ways to convey the same message of resolution, determination to act, and that, you know, Europe wouldn't be bullied.
06:01What we heard from the Ukrainian president was a bit different, was a bit harsh on Europe.
06:06Let's not forget that Europe gave more money than the U.S., you know, covering both military and financial support.
06:13You know, it's quite significant in spite of some division among 27 member states.
06:17But what will be extremely interesting to monitor in the next few weeks is how his speech will play off and what kind of impact it will have on the electorate,
06:28especially the electorate of far-right parties in the big countries in Europe, not just the EU, Europe, so the UK, France and Germany.
06:37It might be that this kind of tone somehow gives some arguments to the leaders of the far-right parties in the three countries.
06:47I'm not saying it will.
06:48I'm saying it might.
06:49And it will be interesting.
06:53But saying that Europe is slow is true.
06:55Saying that Europe has done nothing is simply not true.
06:58The coalition of the willing under the leadership of Sir Kirsten and President Macron did deliver a few things,
07:04and first among which aligning U.S. and EU sanctions.
07:07And we will get to see in the upcoming months the full extent of the economic impact of those sanctions.
07:13You might have heard that the French have seized a tanker off the coast of France.
07:18This comes a few weeks after the British and the Americans seized another tanker off the coast of Iceland.
07:24So we will see the kind of recomposing and resolution spirit of the Europeans in the next few weeks.
07:31But some nuance sometimes would help.
07:35But again, you know, I think there has been so much tremendous pressure on the shoulders of the president of Ukraine
07:40that today for him seems to have been a rather good day, or so I assume.
07:45Indeed.
07:46Well, let's hope that is the case.
07:47Greg, well, the words of Zelenskyy regarding Europe's defence are basically saying Europe needs to wake up to the threat on its doorstep,
07:55pointing the finger at Vladimir Putin and Russia.
07:57He went on to talk about the fact, in his eyes, that Ukraine could be very much key to any kind of pan-European defence force,
08:05should that ever come to pass.
08:09Is that the case?
08:10Is Europe really at a point now where it needs to wake up and really consider its collective defence in the way that Zelenskyy is saying?
08:18And I might sound like the Brussels advocate, and I'm happy to play that card tonight,
08:23but there is such a small force, you know, after the developments in the Sahel with the French army fighting on its own for almost a decade,
08:31the European Union created a kind of contingent of up to 5,000 troops to be able to be deployed anywhere
08:37where the vital and strategic interests of the European Union are threatened.
08:43So de facto it does exist, but of course it's not a European army.
08:49I will be honest, I don't see that happening any time soon for now.
08:55What really happens is the ability of rebuilding stockpiles, of muscling up civilian preparedness,
09:03and I think in this regard there's a lot that has to be done across the block.
09:08What we've got to see in Finland or Poland is absolutely not what we've got to see in France or Germany
09:15when we're speaking of a kind of non-compulsory, voluntary sort of military service,
09:22what President Macron, with all his spirit of imagination, has come up with
09:27is a six-month non-compulsory military service.
09:30I'm not so sure that this will really muscle up the European deterrence.
09:35And so there's a kind of real gap between reaching the level of the European army
09:41and getting sense that European peoples are coming to terms with the harsh reality that war is back,
09:51that war is back indeed.
09:53And in this regard, you know, it's something that's been much commented on in France
09:56when the chief of staff said that France should be ready to send our children to die.
10:04Of course, he didn't say, you know, whether it was a kind of metaphor for the soldiers,
10:09but some could argue that it's not a metaphor for soldiers.
10:12It's the population.
10:13And when war is on your doorstep, you need to be able to prepare to fight, to defend yourself.
10:19And this has created a real uproar in France.
10:22And most probably that would have created the same in many European countries.
10:26You know, we're very far from the European army,
10:29because even if you have a European army, whom will you send?
10:31You need to be ready to fight.
10:34And I'm not sure that we are psychologically ready.
10:37So there's a lot of work that needs to be done.
10:40I guess that what would be interesting to see,
10:43and that would be a first step towards the European army,
10:45is rather than having sort of a fragmented market, if you will,
10:48of small, very costly for that matter,
10:52military services is something rooted in, of course, national identities and threat perceptions,
10:57but with a strong European dimension.
11:00You could have such a thing as a coalition of the willing, willing member states,
11:04who would say, let's put resources together,
11:07and we'll have something of the length,
11:09I mean, serious enough as what you have in Israel, up to two years,
11:14you know, seriously at the level of the threat,
11:16and you would have up to six months to a year in everyone's home country,
11:21and then you'll spend one more year in another European country,
11:23and you'll get to understand, you know, what kind of threats does the country perceive,
11:30feel, depending on the geography and on a whole lot of different criteria.
11:37And we're not there yet.
11:38So we really need more, I think, leadership in this regard
11:42to understand that the answers won't stay at national level.
11:47Reguil Rousse, thank you very much indeed for that very thorough examination
11:50of the issues facing the EU summit, Greenland, Ukraine, and of course, and beyond.
11:56Pleasure to have you on board once again.
11:58Greg Rousse, director of Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at Chatham House.
12:01Thank you, sir, very much indeed.
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