Only solution for Europeans is to 'keep calm and stay united', defence specialist says

FRANCE 24 English

Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Frédéric Mauro, associate researcher at IRIS in Brussels, says that European leaders must be much be more vocal in defending European territories, and that the only solution is to "keep calm and stay united", adding that "union is what will deter US President Donald Trump" against annexing Greenland.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00No more pressure, no more insinuations, no more fantasies of annexation.

00:09The Prime Minister of Greenland is pleading with the US to stop making territorial threats over the island

00:14as Washington's military intervention in Venezuela reignites fears for the autonomous Danish territory.

00:21Donald Trump is once again claiming that the mineral-rich Arctic island needs to come under American control

00:27as an issue of national security, prompting Copenhagen to warn that the US president should be taken seriously.

00:35Emerald Maxwell has the latest.

00:39As the Trump administration appeared to warm to the idea of annexing Greenland,

00:44the Danish Prime Minister sharpened her rhetoric.

00:47We saw the US take control of Venezuela in just a few hours.

00:53What will Denmark do if the Americans do something similar?

00:56Well, if the US chooses to attack another NATO country, then everything stops.

01:03I can't account for what the Americans do, but I can account for what we do from the Danish and European side.

01:09And of course, there is full support from the rest of Europe when it comes to the Kingdom and the Danish realm,

01:14that the borders must, of course, be respected.

01:16The diplomatic spat between the two NATO allies was reopened by this tweet of Greenland,

01:24filled in with the US flag and the word soon.

01:27The image was posted by the wife of the White House Deputy Chief of Staff.

01:31But on Sunday, Donald Trump doubled down on the theme.

01:34Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place.

01:40We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.

01:45And Denmark is not going to be able to do it, I can tell you.

01:48Semi-autonomous Greenland is on the shortest route for missiles between Russia and the United States,

01:54and Washington has a military base there.

01:56The Arctic territory is also rich in rare earth minerals.

02:01Denmark says it's already working with Washington to boost security in the Arctic.

02:06And Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens Frederik Nielsen, has also told Trump to back off.

02:13For more on what's at stake for Greenland, let's bring in Frederik Mauro,

02:17lawyer and specialist in defence matters and associate researcher at the IORIS.

02:22Thanks so much for being with us on the programme, Frederik.

02:26First of all, after what we've seen in Venezuela this weekend,

02:30how real is the risk that Donald Trump might attempt to annex Greenland?

02:35The Prime Minister there saying they're actually preparing for the possibility

02:38that it could happen overnight, as they put it.

02:42Yeah, the short answer is we don't know.

02:45We should stop trying to understand the acts of Donald Trump

02:52because its main strength is in coherence.

02:57So we should not take it as granted.

03:01It can be a bluff or it can be a commitment.

03:04The willingness from the US to acquire Greenland is very old.

03:12It goes back to 1867.

03:13There have been several attempts to acquire Greenland.

03:24But now it's really something.

03:28And the union, first of all, we should recall that the union as such

03:34has no power in foreign affairs.

03:38So it's, first of all, a matter of foreign affairs in the hands of the member states.

03:44So first of all, it's to Denmark to say exactly what he wants.

03:50But for sure, if the US would attack, that would be the end,

03:57like the Danish Prime Minister of Denmark said.

04:02That would be the end of NATO and probably a big, big failure between the EU and the US.

04:10Yeah, because how would NATO be likely to react to such a move if Donald Trump were to move on Greenland?

04:18Well, that nobody knows, because formally it would be an attack against one member.

04:25But the reaction should escalate to the NAC, the NATO Atlantic Council.

04:34But the main ally, the main power in NATO is the US.

04:40So what happens if the main ally becomes the main hostile?

04:46Nobody knows.

04:47It's something that even in sci-fi we did not expect.

04:53And for Donald Trump, do you think then that any potential economic gains would be worth the breach with a NATO ally?

05:01He's been critical previously of the alliance.

05:04And how expensive would it be, do you think, for the US to exploit the natural resources on the island?

05:13Well, that makes sense from a US point of view,

05:18because after the takeover of the Venezuelan oil reserves,

05:24taking the hand on the rare earth of the Greenland would make sense.

05:34I think that Donald Trump would be tempted to do it if it's fast,

05:41if he's dominant, and if the whole action is containable.

05:46If the European member states show a resolve in defending Greenland,

05:56that will complexify the calculus for Donald Trump.

05:59So maybe they should really think about making some action of resolve to be firm

06:12and to not to allow hostile takeover of the Greenland.

06:17But how do you think that European leaders would actually respond if that were to happen?

06:21Would they be prepared to actually take a stand?

06:24Because many, including the British Prime Minister,

06:26they appear eager at the moment to play a balancing act over the situation in Venezuela.

06:31Would it be very different if this were Greenland?

06:34To be frank, they are working on eggshells because for the moment their main preoccupation,

06:43their main security concern is not Greenland, is Ukraine, of course,

06:49because they think that they are threatened by Russia.

06:52And the problem is that they need absolutely the US to contain Russia.

06:59And that is exactly the reason why they capitulated on the trade war with the US,

07:07which they should not have done,

07:10because they are as strong as the US with regards to trade.

07:15But with regard to security, that will be very complicated.

07:19So they should react very firmly, maybe recalling their ambassadors very, very strongly, I think.

07:32That would be my advice.

07:34And, Frederick, do you think that the manner, sorry for cutting across you,

07:38do you believe that the manner in which European leaders are reacting and responding

07:41to what's happening in Venezuela,

07:43will that embolden Donald Trump to perhaps think more seriously about moving on Greenland?

07:49Not at the moment.

07:51The short answer is not at the moment.

07:53Few leaders have been very, very firm.

07:58The French president has been a little bit ambiguous about it.

08:05Ursula von der Leyen has no power on foreign affairs.

08:10The German chancellor, Merz, was very ambiguous about it.

08:16It said, oh, Venezuela is a complex legal affair that we must investigate.

08:24That is not a clear answer.

08:26And the British prime minister said that he will have to consult the allies.

08:32So that is not a clear answer.

08:34Not to mention the leaders that want to play their home game,

08:40like the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, or Victor Orban,

08:47who want to be Donald Trump's best friend forever.

08:51So that is really complicated.

08:53The only solution for the Europeans is to keep calm and stay united.

08:59Is there a union that will deter Donald Trump to do anything against Greenland?

09:07If we leave Denmark alone, that will be done.

09:11He will do something, obviously.

09:14But European leaders must be much, much more vocal on defending the European territory,

09:24if not the union's territory.

09:27And, Frederick, when Trump threatens Greenland like this,

09:29do you think he's sending a message to Europe, though?

09:31Or are these comments more about sending a warning to China and Russia,

09:36who he mentioned again at the weekend saying Greenland was covered with Russian and Chinese ships?

09:43No, I think that that is mainly addressed to the Europeans.

09:47He is preparing the, as we say in French, he is preparing the land for intervention,

09:58as exactly as he did with Venezuela.

10:02All his actions can be performative or threatening or escalating,

10:13all that in the same time.

10:14It is very, very ambiguous.

10:19Once again, its main strength is in coherence.

10:24Nobody should, we should stop asking what is the Trump doctrine.

10:28There is nothing such as the Donald Trump doctrine.

10:31Maybe there are people around him that have a doctrine,

10:35and maybe this doctrine is age-long in the history of the U.S.

10:42But he has not any doctrine.

10:46He is like a shark.

10:50He is flaring the weakness of his adversary.

10:56So, once again, if he can go fast, and if he can contain the action,

11:03if he is sure to be dominant to take over the Greenland, he will do it.

11:08Exactly like Putin.

11:09He is exactly the same kind of animal than Vladimir Putin.

11:15Frederick, we'll have to leave it there for now.

11:16Thanks so much for being with us, though, on the program.

11:19That is Lawyer and Specialist in Defence Matters,

11:22Frederick Marrow.

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