Analyzing College Football Playoff Odds on Kalshi Markets

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00:00By the way, I'm on Cal Shea right now, Joe.

00:01College football championship winner.

00:03Miami's back up off the carpet.

00:04Last week, 1%, Joe.

00:06We're up to 2% today.

00:07Donnie, buy it.

00:08100 bucks.

00:08It can only go down.

00:10Five grand.

00:11So then buy it.

00:12I mean, again, the whole thing is.

00:14I need to find more shares, Joe.

00:16You know what I mean?

00:17I got to start.

00:17Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy.

00:19Hold the market up.

00:20Give me some of that.

00:20By the way, Miami's less of the 2% on Cal Shea right now, Joe.

00:24Oklahoma's only 3% and Ole Miss is 4% here.

00:26Yeah, again, I think.

00:28Come on.

00:28You take a little Ole Miss.

00:30Look at this, Joe.

00:30100 bucks on Oklahoma, 3,300 back in your pocket.

00:34That's great.

00:35That's a great bet.

00:36I mean, again, if you believe.

00:38There's no.

00:39Oklahoma's in the playoffs.

00:40There is no doubt Oklahoma's in.

00:42They're not dropping below Alabama.

00:44They have the head-to-head if we're talking.

00:46But it is weird.

00:47We have the head-to-head.

00:48Oklahoma over Alabama.

00:50But we don't have the head-to-head with Notre Dame and Miami.

00:54That's unbelievable.

00:55Well, if I ask you this question, too, today.

00:57Because I always like to have fun on these predictive markets, too.

00:59Because you sort of try to see what's in the future and how it's going to wind up.

01:02Ohio State and Indiana are listed one and two, right?

01:0436% chance for Ohio State.

01:0616% chance for Indiana.

01:09When do you bet this game and why?

01:10The reason I ask you that is because if you think Indiana is going to win, how much do the odds actually change for the college football playoff?

01:17Like, I don't think it's a world joke.

01:19If Indiana wins today, they're not going to be favored still to win the national championship.

01:22It's probably still going to be Ohio State.

01:23No, but they'd be in the 20s at least.

01:24Yeah.

01:25So, like, how do you think that game actually works out, though?

01:28Like, forget about point spread.

01:29Does Indiana have a – do you actually think Indiana wins this football game today?

01:33I do, actually.

01:34Again, I'm taking a shot.

01:36So, you would take Indiana today in the predictive market, 16%.

01:39Yeah, because – well, again, here's the thing.

01:43Statistically, we'll go through the stats.

01:46The last four victories by Ohio State have been 33.7 points per game.

01:50Yeah.

01:51They laid, I believe, 7.5 last year at home in Columbus on a neutral field.

01:57Now it's 4.5?

01:58Yeah.

01:59I mean, they're not 6.5?

02:02They're not –

02:02It's –

02:03I mean, that line, to me, is a little off.

02:06Why is it off?

02:07Are they sucking –

02:08Now, I always say this.

02:09The Brooks established lines to suck you in.

02:11It's not to get 50-50.

02:13That used to be the old day.

02:14They want to make Sharps think about why a line is a certain way.

02:18So, that's how they get Indiana money, right?

02:20Oh, why is the line 4.5?

02:22They get more Indiana –

02:23I'm just thinking –

02:25I'm just going from the spread perspective, what I know,

02:29and Mendoza, to me, is the best quarterback they've faced.

02:33Yeah.

02:33Right?

02:33And that could be good, bad, or ugly, right?

02:35We've seen – all I know is I have a Heisman Trophy contender quarterback

02:40catching points on a neutral field, and I might have the edge in regards to

02:45potentially, you know, my quarterback and maybe one of my receivers.

02:50I think Cooper is underrated.

02:52I think he's better than Tate.

02:54I'll just say that.

02:55By the way, if we are looking at the championship market price,

02:57because, again, what I find so fascinating is a lot is going to be determined

03:00from today and also the price points of the teams that still make it in, Joe.

03:03You look at Alabama, and legitimately, on an even surface with everybody,

03:07Alabama can beat anybody.

03:08Good SEC team, same thing with Georgia.

03:10Alabama is 6% in the Cal sheet market here, which means $100, Joe,

03:14pays back $1,677 if they win it all.

03:17Now, my question to you is, would you rather wait and hope Alabama loses

03:21and still makes it in saying, okay, dodged a bullet?

03:24But you know as well as I do, Alabama wins this game against Georgia,

03:27guaranteed to be in the college football playoff.

03:29They're way higher than 6%.

03:30Yeah, so you have to bet it earlier now.

03:33Now, I will say to me, right here, right now, I've said it,

03:37Georgia's the most complete team.

03:39I know they had one slip up, but I believe in Georgia more than anybody else.

03:44Georgia right now, Joe, 12% chance.

03:46$100 wager pays back $834.

03:48Do you take Georgia before this game?

03:50Yes.

03:50Because you know if they win, they're going up into the high teams.

03:53And if they lose, they'll be dead to rights.

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