00:00Now let's take a look at the Heisman Trophy winner, Joe, which again, each and every week,
00:04these numbers are changing on a weekly basis.
00:06So if you're buying in cheaply here, you can sell high.
00:08But also, Joe, you get a bad number.
00:10You can buy out of that number at a nice little loss at this point.
00:13Julian Sane, the leader in the clubhouse, a 40% chance.
00:16So what does that mean, 40%?
00:17You lay $100 down on Julian Sane to win the Heisman Trophy, Joe.
00:21That pays back $257.
00:24So theoretically, if it does win, that's 157% of that bet you are getting back here.
00:30He's the leader.
00:31Do you trust him as the leader?
00:32Should he win the Heisman?
00:33Well, I mean, top team in the country, playing well, dominating the 33.5 point favorites over UCLA.
00:41I just don't know, and it's potentially because they're not going to be pushed until the Michigan game, right?
00:47Is that going to be enough to get Julian Sane the Heisman Trophy when he technically isn't a household name right now?
00:54You think about, you know, Diego Pavia, and you think about Fernando Mendoza, and you think, obviously, Ty Simpson, right?
01:01And so you don't think of Julian Sane coming out.
01:06Now, if all of a sudden he puts up dynamic numbers, yeah, he has an opportunity.
01:11But I would still sell that price right here, right now.
01:15He's got a 40% number right now.
01:17It seems high, and it seems good because Ohio State is basically living up to expectations.
01:23But I still think an SEC player potentially could step up and win it at this point.
01:28Let's take a look also, Joe.
01:29Number two in line here is Fernando Mendoza, 34% chance, which means if you plunk down $100 here at Calcio on that, that pays back $295.
01:38Certainly had that comeback victory last week against Penn State.
01:40Down again, one of his better wide receivers, Joe.
01:42What do you think are the odds here for Mendoza?
01:44Because he's probably going to have to, what, run the table and beat Ohio State in that Big Ten championship game to win this.
01:50And it feels like, Joe, who wins the Big Ten is going to be the Heisman Trophy winner?
01:53Is that what it is?
01:54I still can't buy into it.
01:56Now, he has that Heisman moment because he stepped up in big spots, right?
02:01Oregon.
02:02He stepped up against Iowa.
02:04He stepped up against Penn State.
02:05And they were left for dead and buried last week in Happy Valley.
02:09You got the Gus Johnson call.
02:11Give him that!
02:12Yeah.
02:12Right?
02:13I mean, that's it.
02:14Now, people were upset about that.
02:16I mean, come on.
02:17People were upset.
02:18Guys, in the heat of the moment, even though I listened to most of the games with no sound, that was a phenomenal call.
02:24By the way, let me ask you this question, Joe, because we always talk about handicappers and getting the best of the numbers that you have.
02:29It's always important to have certain books in your pocket, like, okay, let me go shop it around.
02:34But look at this difference, Joe, that we're finding right now.
02:36I'm just going to use FanDuel as an instance.
02:37Fernando Mendoza to win the Heisman Trophy right now at FanDuel, Joe, plus $110 price.
02:42So a $100 wager is going to pay back $110, which means $210 as the total on the back end.
02:48Now, we go back to Calci here.
02:50You place a number on Fernando Mendoza, $100, Joe.
02:52That pays back $295 at this point.
02:56So a big difference in just a couple books between the predictive markets.
02:59Yeah, the predictive markets give you an opportunity to potentially utilize multiple players and really dive in at a price that maybe the books aren't seeing or suggesting as clear cut.
03:11It gives you the ability to buy low, sell high, and that's what you want to do.
03:14But again, it also gives you other options and a way to look at the market, maybe potentially that you're not looking at when you just open up a DraftKings or a FanDuel for that matter.
03:25You have to incorporate and integrate both into your breakdown and an analytical approach.
03:31So I suggest no matter what book you use, you have to go in with a methodology about what player you believe in because the predictive markets really expose you a little bit more, especially on the downside when you are wrong.
03:47That's the biggest thing.
03:48It's like you lay out in the book, you know what you're laying out.
03:51With the predictive market, a guy's got a 40% shot and you sell it, all of a sudden you're exposing yourself to the upside.
03:57Now also understand this, Joe, as we sort of take down the list because it feels to me that we are setting up Sane versus Mendoza in the Heisman Trophy race just to come down to that one final game.
04:06Give me another player outside of those two who are the prohibitive favorites right now.
04:10Now, Reid, Simpson, Pavia, Smith, Love, like who has a realistic chance to win it?
04:14Because, again, if we're just looking in the way it's listed here, they're the quarterbacks.
04:18Like, Marcel Reid, if he runs the table, wins the SEC.
04:21He's right up there in case Sane or Mendoza slips.
04:23Ty Simpson, same thing in the SEC, Joe.
04:25He runs the table and can win that.
04:27He's going to take steps above Marcel Reid and maybe catch Mendoza or Sane.
04:31Anybody else outside of Sane and Mendoza that you look forward to say, you know what?
04:35I'd like to invest in that.
04:36Well, I mean, it would be Simpson for me.
04:38I mean, you know, because of Alabama, because of knowing they play Oklahoma, he has the rivalry game against Auburn.
04:44You have a body of work, only one interception, and a player that's stepping up and playing his best at the end of the regular season.
04:51But, again, Marcel Reid, here's the thing.
04:53Who's more of a household name?
04:55Is it Marcel Reid or Ty Simpson?
04:57Ty Simpson has played in more marquee primetime type of games and has outperformed the competition, right?
05:04He went on the road against Missouri when Missouri was undefeated, won that game, had three touchdowns and 200 yards.
05:11He goes toe-to-toe with Pavia, gets him in the end where Pavia didn't have the best game in that matchup.
05:16So the more marquee matchups that Ty Simpson steps up on on the national stage, he's going to garner that recognition.
05:24I will just say this.
05:25You know, Jeremiah Smith was in the mention for a lot of these awards, the Heisman Trophy.
05:31You know, if Sayan's throwing all to Jeremiah Smith in the second half of the season, does that hurt his chances at the Heisman?
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