00:00Karen, you are looking at the labor economy through your lens over at LinkedIn.
00:04What do you see when it comes to job postings on LinkedIn and the take up of those job postings?
00:12What we're seeing right now is a labor market in the U.S. that is continuing to soften.
00:18It's not collapsing. We still see some pockets of momentum, but largely this is the labor market where employers are cautious and workers are feeling a little insecure.
00:29So, for example, when we look at our data, what we see at LinkedIn is a workforce that is adding that little badge on their profile that says, I'm open to being hired someplace.
00:42And we saw a 20 percent increase. Yes, a 20 percent increase in members on our platform adding that badge in the U.S. alone in the past year.
00:51Wow. So that's a sign of insecurity.
00:53So despite this this confidence measure you just mentioned among the consumer, what we're seeing amongst the worker is a little bit of insecurity.
01:01It shows up also in our own confidence measures where we say, how do you feel about getting a job, finding a job?
01:06And it's at the lowest level we've ever seen since we began this over five years ago.
01:12Yeah, we know that we are. Yes.
01:15Well, I was going to say it's taking longer, right, for folks to find a job, which is an ongoing problem.
01:20So I'm I'm curious to know where you're seeing the most hiring, the least hiring from your lens there at LinkedIn.
01:28Yeah. So just taking it industry by industry quickly, some of the standout industries where we're seeing hiring pick up.
01:38Tech, for one, believe it or not, is back in the back in the black.
01:41It's positive. We're seeing hiring rates running around six percent.
01:44So tech is hiring. Media is hiring.
01:48We also see it in health care, which has been a longstanding story of health care just outperforming in terms of hiring.
01:54And for obvious reasons, we see it in education.
01:57When you think about primary and secondary education, a lot of hiring going on there.
02:00Not so much at the university level, though.
02:03So there are pockets where we've seen hiring happen.
02:07Finance is holding in as well.
02:08Where we don't see it happening, where there isn't much momentum is construction.
02:15Think about retail, accommodation, not seeing a lot of hiring happening there.
02:20Manufacturing is looking very depressed.
02:23So these are pockets of no momentum.
02:25And I think when you put it all together, what it tells me is that we've got a labor market that is still moving forward very slowly without much momentum.
02:34But it's got a fragility to it.
02:36If we were to get a shock, it probably would be pretty rocked by it.
02:41Wow. OK, so that's a great way of characterizing what we're seeing right now.
02:45I think there's also frustration for a lot of job seekers, Karen, by so-called ghost jobs.
02:51There's an abundance of listings.
02:53But when people apply to jobs, there's very little follow through on actual hiring.
02:56And it's not clear if there's a qualifications mismatch or whether maybe companies are just building up an inventory of candidates for potential positions down the road.
03:04I'm curious what you're seeing at LinkedIn.
03:07You know what?
03:08I wouldn't put it so much as ghost jobs.
03:10What I would put it is people are finding it's taking longer to find a job.
03:14So we do see applications per applicant having been, you know, elevated over the past year.
03:20Again, like I said, people are putting that open to work badge.
03:22They're feeling a little frustrated by a labor market where, frankly, it's just it's a lot tougher and it's taking longer to find a job.
03:29But I don't think it's a question of just ghost jobs.
03:31I think it's a question of many more applications per job.
03:35The other thing I would say is, you know, there is a bright spot.
03:37There are places where people are having more success.
03:39And one of them is in the small business area.
03:42So small businesses are hiring.
03:43Their hiring rate is positive relative to large businesses.
03:46So those big companies, 10,000 plus employees, they're expressing more caution.
03:52They're holding back.
03:53They want to wait and see what's going to happen with the economy, with rates, with industrial policy, with AI.
03:58But the smaller businesses are taking up the mantle.
04:01They are absolutely hiring right now.
04:04In about 30 seconds, Karen, what's the outlook in 2026?
04:09What are you seeing there at LinkedIn?
04:11Might we start to see a bit of a loosening up and more companies willing to, you know, expand the payrolls?
04:18You know, look, what I'm seeing right now is I think that the optimism that we're seeing about the economy, the outlook from small businesses to say, look, I'm finding it actually pretty, you know, pretty easy right now to kind of continue doing my hiring.
04:31I hope that continues.
04:33I hope that small business optimism continues because that really is a backbone for the economy.
04:36I think the bigger companies are a lot more cautious.
04:40I think that's more of a wait and see.
04:42They have a big AI play for a lot of them.
04:45So I think it's they're going to be more cautious.
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