Sept. Planned Job Additions Weakest Since 2011

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00:00There have been a couple different narratives. There's low hire, low fire environment. And then

00:05we've also heard about a no hire, no fire environment. Is that what we're in?

00:10Yeah, I don't think you can even discern the difference between the two at this point. When

00:15you figure your starting point is there are 170 million jobs in the United States. So if you're

00:21talking about even 100,000 jobs, companies last month announced plans, according to Challenger

00:28Gray and Christmas to add 117,000 jobs. Now that's worldwide. That's not just in the United

00:33States. So it's really hard to figure out the impact of all this stuff. I think that when

00:40you look at the Challenger data, and we don't usually consider it a frontier level of data.

00:47I was thinking the same thing. Yesterday we're talking ADP. Today we're talking Challenger

00:50Gray and Christmas. The problem with Challenger is that it is A, worldwide, and B, it doesn't

00:56account for time periods. So when companies say they're going to release people, how long

01:04is that going to take? How many of them might be moved into other jobs? How much is attrition

01:10versus firing? So it isn't an easy read to say this is going to happen because they said

01:16that. But you can sort of take trends from it. When you see a big increase, as we did earlier

01:21in the summer of layoffs, you get an impression that, yeah, people are cutting back. And we

01:26saw that when all the tech companies were cutting a year ago. Now they're saying that the plans

01:33to add jobs is the weakest September hiring intentions since 2011. And they say that companies

01:41are at the low end of estimates for hiring people for the holiday season. So you can probably say

01:48those are relatively accurate observations of the labor situation at the moment.

01:54Did you see, and forgive me if I mispronounce, Revelio Labs, they had some data out today. It

01:59showed employment increased about 60,000 in September and improvement from a month earlier.

02:04Again, strange times. We would never normally probably talk about this.

02:07Well, they're new anyway. So we're just getting used to their data. We haven't got a lot to benchmark it

02:13with it. But the overall, the 60,000 jobs they say were likely added in September is within the scope

02:24of what economists were thinking in terms of the nonfarm payrolls. They say 57,000 in private sector

02:32jobs. Again, that's sort of in line with what was expected. So you can take that for what it's worth.

02:38We'll see how close they came when we finally do get the data. And if it turns out to be a very

02:43reliable indicator, then of course, everybody's going to start following that. Mike, Carol. Oh,

02:49go ahead, Carol. No, no, go please. So you, I wanted to go with what Carol mentioned about

02:52the federal workers and the president's meeting with Russell vote of OMB project 2025. We know how

02:58Russell vote thinks about federal employees and increasingly the president making it clear that

03:03during a shutdown, this could be an opportunity to actually fire thousands of federal employees.

03:08What do you think is the economic impact of that? Or could it be?

03:12Well, it could have an economic impact depending on how, let me put it this way. It will have an

03:17economic macro impact on the country, depending on how many people are fired, obviously has a big

03:23economic impact on any particular person who loses their jobs. I think one starting place for thinking

03:30about any of this is that the president can get rid of federal workers anytime if he follows the proper

03:36procedures in the administrative procedures act. So this is really just an excuse using the shutdown

03:44as an excuse to fire people. They chopped thousands of people from the federal payrolls,

03:51the doge people did, and that wasn't during a shutdown. So, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't take the,

03:58here's an opportunity thing. Yeah. It's an opportunity for PR, but it's not a reason why they have to cut

04:04people. It's not a shutdown is requiring them to cut anybody. Then it just depends on who's cut and

04:10where they're cut. The state with the most number of federal employees is California. And so if you

04:16cut all the people in California, you're going to have a big impact there, but maybe less of an impact

04:22than you would have in Maryland or Virginia, which are third and second on the list and are concentrated

04:29right around the Washington DC area. Obviously a big reduction in force there would have a big impact

04:35on the local economies. We should point out that, uh, the president did, uh, put out a social media

04:41post, uh, earlier today, uh, saying, I have a meeting today with Russ vote. He had project 2025 fame

04:48to determine which of the many Democrat agencies, most, most of which are a political scam. He recommends

04:53to be cut and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent. He goes on to say,

04:58I can't believe the radical left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity.

05:02They are not stupid people. So maybe this is their way of wanting to quietly and quickly make America

05:07great again. And of course signed by the president. Just one thing that struck me about this post,

05:12Mike was the, the way that during the campaign, if we were talking a year ago, the president

05:17before he was elected for this term really distance himself from project 2025. I don't know anything

05:23about it. I'm not going to do anything. They delayed the publication of the book that had

05:28the forward by Russell, you know, that's completely, that's, that's, he's embraced it.

05:32I think the, the, the president's relationship with the truth is something everybody realizes is not

05:37very tight. So you kind of have to take that into consideration. And then all of the florid language

05:44that Carol was reading, that's the way he talks. And so it's really a question for economics of

05:52what is the actual impact going to be. And for that, as I said, we need to know who's being cut

05:57and where they're being cut. We want to bring someone in one last question to you. And then

06:01you're going to join us in this round table, but would you look, you always remind us one month's

06:05report and so on and so forth. At this point, we look at the trend line and I pulled up non-farm

06:09payrolls. Of course, we, we are not expecting a read tomorrow, but the trend line has been

06:14for lower and lower job creation. Yes. I mean, if you look at the other indicators that have come

06:18out this week, the, uh, ISM manufacturing reports still under 50 suggesting contraction or, or very

06:24low hiring the ADP report, which obviously got a lot of people's attention suggesting low hiring.

06:30And then when you look at the, uh, confident conference boards, consumer confidence numbers about

06:35job availability, they are, uh, the lowest since 2021. So, uh, people are absorbing the idea that

06:44it isn't a great labor market right now.

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