Dylan Cease Signs $210M Deal with Toronto Blue Jays

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00:00But let's start with Dylan Cease.

00:02Dylan Cease is the newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays,

00:06and he signed for a lot of money, folks.

00:0929 years old, going to be 30 years old on December 28th,

00:13so 30 for the entire year next year.

00:17But Dylan Cease just signed a seven-year, $210 million contract

00:22with the Toronto Blue Jays.

00:24We'll talk about what that means for the Blue Jays

00:27and what happens next for them,

00:29but I do want to start with Dylan Cease.

00:31Who is Toronto getting in Dylan Cease?

00:34Did this make a lot of sense?

00:36I guess knee-jerk reaction when this deal came across.

00:39Knee-jerk reaction was, I'm a big Dylan Cease fan,

00:44and I'm still surprised he signed for $210 million.

00:47But if you do look at the contract, there are deferrals, right?

00:51So the present-day value is about $26 million per year,

00:56which is certainly still a healthy chunk of change

01:00for a guy coming off an ERA at a 4-5-5.

01:03But there are plenty of reasons to believe that that ERA will not continue in Toronto.

01:08But right now we're looking at about seven years, $182 million.

01:13So no, the Dodgers are not the only team giving out deferrals to big-time free agents.

01:19So they also did this with Anthony Santander, right?

01:23You look at the total money that Santander got,

01:25and you say, wow, that's a lot of coin for a guy that had a really good year

01:29entering his free agent walk.

01:30But I mean, in real time and present value,

01:34it's not crazy crazy because there are deferrals in that Santander deal.

01:38Even with the deferrals in this Dillon Seas deal,

01:42it can still feel a little crazy crazy when you think about what this guy has done

01:47from an earned run perspective in his major league career.

01:51You feel like the $210 million pitcher,

01:54that was reserved for the top of the game, really,

01:57not just the top of the free agent market.

01:59And you can make the argument that Dillon Seas is the best pitcher available.

02:03I think a lot of people would.

02:04I feel like if you had to pull,

02:06the consensus would be that Dillon Seas is the number one pitcher

02:10that hit the open market this offseason.

02:12Some people could say Frambois.

02:13Some people could say maybe Ranger Suarez.

02:16People could say Tesuya Imai.

02:18There are answers.

02:19Seas is probably the safest and best answer when his arsenal,

02:24when his body of work is not the safest and maybe not even the best.

02:29When you look at his ERA in his career,

02:31it's not as strong as a guy like Frambois Valdez.

02:33When you look at the ebbs and flows of Dillon Seas,

02:35they're steeper than a Frambois Valdez's.

02:38It feels volatile, but this is a $200 million pitcher.

02:43Did you think there was any world that Cease was getting $200 million?

02:47My contract prediction had him about a six-year deal at $27 million,

02:52so it would have just come right under the $200 million threshold.

02:56But I want to bring up another quote that Andrew Friedman,

03:00the GM of the Dodgers, said back in 2016.

03:02If you are logical about every free agent,

03:04you will finish third on every free agent.

03:06And the Blue Jays felt that Dillon Seas was the perfect free agent for them,

03:11and I couldn't agree more.

03:13Number one, you talk about volatile.

03:16He is, right?

03:16Up and down.

03:17But at his peak, he's finished top five in Cy Young voting twice

03:21over the last four seasons.

03:23And while the profile is volatile,

03:26what isn't is his ability to stick on the mound.

03:29There is a reason that since 2021,

03:33Dillon Seas leads all of Major League Baseball in strikeouts.

03:37He's number one at the top of the list,

03:39because year in and year out,

03:41he makes 32 or 33 starts every single season.

03:46He's done it over the last five seasons,

03:48and even in the shortened COVID year,

03:50he made all 12 of his starts.

03:52So what you know that you're bringing in

03:55is a guy that is as durable as any pitcher in Major League Baseball.

04:00The only pitcher you can compare him to

04:02when it comes to durability is Jose Barrios or Kevin Gosman.

04:07The Blue Jays have one of the most durable rotations in baseball.

04:10And when you look at Dillon Seas' profile

04:13with the San Diego Padres last year,

04:16and you see a 4-5-5 ERA,

04:18let me try to provide some context to that,

04:21because unfortunately, ERA does not capture everything that we look at

04:26when looking at a pitcher and projecting in long term.

04:29And I think we can start at defense.

04:32Among pitchers, Dillon Seas last year,

04:36the defenders behind him compiled negative seven outs above average.

04:42You don't even have to know what outs above average is.

04:45Because it's a defensive stat,

04:47and being in the negative is clearly not good.

04:49He actually had some of the worst defense behind his specific starts.

04:53So if you're looking at the Padres' defense as a whole,

04:55and you're saying, well, they weren't that bad,

04:57it's not about that.

04:58It's behind him.

04:59So if you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:01you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:02and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:03and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:04and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:05and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:06and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:07and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:08and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:09and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:10and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:11and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:12and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:13and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:14and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:15and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

05:16and you're looking at the Padres' defense,

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