St. Vincent, Honduras Elections Loom Large for Taiwan

TaiwanPlus News

Two elections in Central America and the Caribbean could potentially have significant effects on Taiwan's diplomatic ties.

Transcript

00:00The results of several recent elections in the Caribbean and Central America could potentially

00:04have significant effects on Taiwan's diplomacy and its diplomatic allies.

00:10In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, one of Taiwan's current diplomatic allies, a political

00:14party that has previously said they supported cutting ties with Taiwan has won the country's

00:19recent election, its leader just sworn in as prime minister.

00:23Although the party hasn't commented on this issue since the polls closed, and it wasn't

00:28something brought up during their campaign this year, it does raise questions about the

00:32stability of Taiwan's ties with a country under new leadership that has indicated wavering

00:36support in the past.

00:39Despite that, Taiwan's foreign ministry appears confident that ties remain stable.

00:43It emphasized Taiwan's ambassador to the country had already met with the newly elected prime

00:47minister to congratulate him, and also said this.

00:51Taiwan and the government have been founded for 44 years, the two countries have been

00:55in the country's political party.

00:58And in Honduras, vote counting is underway in another election that could also carry great

01:04weight for Taiwan, the country's presidential race.

01:08Honduras is not a diplomatic ally, having cut ties with Taiwan in 2023 and failed in the

01:13country.

01:14But on the presidential campaign trail, two of its three frontrunners indicated their support

01:31for reestablishing ties with Taipei.

01:34And with around half of the votes tallied as of now, those two pro-Taiwan candidates appear

01:39to be in the lead.

01:40Analysts say there's a sense of disappointment with voters over how relations with China have

01:45hit Honduras' economy.

01:47Since 2023, Honduras' shrimp industry has collapsed, and its trade deficit with China has

01:52only increased.

01:54With so much at stake, Taiwan's foreign ministry said Tuesday that it's paying close attention

01:59to the results.

02:00It also used the situation to criticize China, suggesting it's an unreliable diplomatic partner.

02:05China claims Taiwan as part of its territory under its one-China principle, which is the

02:35meaning, diplomatically, countries are forced to pick a side.

02:39There are currently only 12 countries that give diplomatic recognition to Taiwan instead

02:43of China.

02:44That number has sharply declined in recent years from over 20 in 2016, as China increasingly

02:50puts pressure on countries to switch.

02:53So those that have kept or are thinking about reestablishing ties with Taiwan are being closely

02:57watched — especially around election time, when foreign policy can change.

03:03Despite that, it's no guarantee that past statements or statements made on the campaign trail will

03:08turn into concrete foreign policy changes.

03:11So we'll just have to wait and see how things actually play out.

03:14Scott Huang and Cadence Quaranta for Taiwan Plus.

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