How Honduras' Presidential Election Could Affect Taiwan

TaiwanPlus News

The upcoming Honduran presidential election could have huge implications for Taiwan.

Transcript

00:00In just a few days, Honduras will vote on its next president, and the result could have huge implications for Taiwan.

00:09Two of the three major presidential candidates have indicated support for restoring diplomatic relations with Taiwan,

00:17just around two years after Honduras cut ties with the island in favor of China.

00:22This would be a major reversal, and a rare one.

00:26The first time any country has switched recognition from China to Taiwan since 2007.

00:31It would bring Taiwan's dwindling list of diplomatic allies up to 13, a staggering blow for China,

00:38which has been trying to isolate the country, which it claims as its territory.

00:43One frontrunner, Salvador Nazraa, has explicitly pledged to restore ties, calling relations with Beijing a mistake.

00:51I will re-establish relations with Taiwan. Taiwan is our ally. Taiwan is an ally of the U.S., and we depend on the U.S.

01:03Not only is Communist China against the U.S., they don't do business with us.

01:09Not only that, we've lost all our shrimp exports.

01:13Coffee exports are down half since we established relations with China and left Taiwan.

01:19That was a grave error.

01:21Another major candidate, Nasri Azfura, has said the country was, quote,

01:25a hundred times better off with Taiwan and has promised to move Honduras away from China.

01:35The only frontrunner who has not publicly indicated support for ties with Taiwan

01:40is Honduras' current defense minister and ruling party candidate, Rishi Moncada,

01:44who follows the ruling party's line and is likely to stick with China.

01:49Taiwan has become an issue in this presidential race, largely due to widespread disappointment

01:57with how switching to China has affected the Honduran economy.

02:01One not-yet-released report by Expediente Abierto shows that even though Honduras is buying a lot more

02:08from China, Beijing hasn't returned the favor.

02:11Honduran exports to China haven't grown, leaving a huge trade gap.

02:16The shrimp industry in particular has been hit hard.

02:20Taiwan was once the largest market for Honduran shrimp, buying around 40% of the country's

02:25shrimp exports.

02:27After Honduras switched ties to Beijing, its shrimp exports fell dramatically.

02:32Coffee exports are also down.

02:34Analysts say there's also a feeling that restoring ties with Taiwan would help Honduras align more

02:58with the United States.

03:01China appears to know what's at stake.

03:03China's embassy in Honduras has spent weeks amplifying messages on how the country has benefited

03:09from relations with Beijing, highlighting things like support for its shrimp and coffee industries,

03:15educational opportunities, and disaster relief aid.

03:18It also posted this more direct message, urging Honduran politicians to strictly observe the

03:25one-China principle, act prudently on the Taiwan issue, and not harm China's sovereignty in any way.

03:32But some say the moves could be too little, too late.

03:40If Honduras switches relations back to Taiwan, analysts say it could influence other countries

03:46in the region, especially those who have recently switched ties to Beijing and those that face

03:51similar economic concerns.

03:53So these would be some kind of a game changer because, of course, this would open the discussion

04:01or the debate in other countries like Panama, for example, or the Dominican Republic, which were

04:08also among the latest countries.

04:10And of course, as you mentioned, it could also add to the ongoing discussion in places like

04:19Guatemala or Paraguay.

04:21But the race appears unpredictable, with polls showing it could be close.

04:26And even if one of the pro-Taiwan candidates is elected, it's too early to say for sure whether

04:31they will follow through on their campaign promises.

04:35With so much at stake, Taiwan's foreign ministry has said it's watching the race closely.

04:40And on the other side of the strait, China has made clear it's invested as well.

04:46Patrick Chen, Larry Isiano, and Keynes Quaranta for Taiwan Plus.

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