Analysis: China Growing Ferry Fleet for Potential Taiwan Invasion

TaiwanPlus News

US intel says China is expanding and modifying its growing civilian fleet of seafaring ferries for a possible Taiwan invasion. TaiwanPlus spoke with Guermantes Lailari at INDSR on what this expansion signals for Beijing’s increasing gray-zone pressure and military readiness.

Transcript

00:00A recent U.S. military intelligence report has revealed that China is rapidly expanding its

00:06commercial ferry fleet as part of preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. The report,

00:12first laid out by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, says that large Chinese ocean-going

00:17ferries have been modified to transport tanks and participate in amphibious operations.

00:23In 2022 alone, around 30 Chinese ferries took part in military exercises with China's People's

00:31Liberation Army. Taiwanese officials say they see the vessels as evidence of China's expansionist

00:38intentions towards Taiwan. To find out more about China's gray zone warfare and its military

00:47capabilities, our reporter Alan Liu spoke to Germant Lelari from the Institute for National

00:52Defense and Security Research. The report says that China has been expanding its commercial

00:59ferry fleet to better prepare for a potential Taiwan invasion. In your view, how effective

01:04have these non-military actions to pressure Taiwan been? I believe that China's non-military

01:11pressure tactics on Taiwan have yielded mixed results, successfully normalizing its presence

01:17but failing to significantly alter Taiwanese public opinion or weaken Taiwan's resolve.

01:24If China were to use civilian ferries for military purposes, which is the focus of your question,

01:30it would have significant implications under international law, particularly the law of armed

01:35conflict, also known as international humanitarian law. This strategy intentionally blurs their strategy

01:41and intentionally blurs the line between civilian and military assets, which is a foundational principle

01:47of the law of war. They're not supposed to do that. So when does a civilian vessel become a military target?

01:55Under the principle of distinction in international law, parties to a conflict must always differentiate

02:01between combatants and non-combatants, and between military objectives and civilian objects.

02:07Civilian ferries are normally protected objects. However, this protection is conditional.

02:13A civilian vessel loses its protective status and becomes a lawful military target if it makes an effective

02:20contribution to military action. So some examples that would cause a vessel to lose its protection include

02:26transporting troops and military equipment, which is what we think is happening,

02:31or laying mines, gathering intelligence, assisting in a military blockade. When a civilian vessel

02:37performs these kinds of functions, military function, it can be targeted and captured.

02:44Taiwan's Coast Guard over the weekend reported that two Chinese research vessels had illegally entered its water,

02:51which suggests an uptick in gray zone activities from China.

02:54How do you think Taiwan can better respond?

02:57First of all, it can increase its technological upgrades for maritime surveillance. Second,

03:05Taiwan needs to develop a legal strategy, much like the Philippines, is to document the infractions

03:13that China is doing against Taiwan. Taiwan's allies need to come in and say, yes,

03:19China is doing this. It's wrong. They need to mount a campaign. Besides all these other things,

03:24Taiwan needs to integrate its Coast Guard with its military, with a lot of things so that they work

03:31in harmony against Chinese infractions. With all these happening, the Washington Post also reported

03:39that Russia has been helping China bolster its air defense capabilities, with China bolstering both its

03:45air and naval power. What are some of the major lessons Taiwan can draw from these developments?

03:51What China is doing now is developing what we call in the military courses of action. These are

03:58things that these are ways that a country would pursue a war using different forces. What Taiwan

04:07needs to do is bolster not only its conventional defense capabilities, what it's doing every day and

04:13pushing back on the PLA and the Coast Guard, but also it needs to bolster its asymmetric capabilities.

04:21Also, Taiwan needs to enhance its air and missile defense because when those airborne troops show up,

04:27they're going to try to take a port or airport. Taiwan needs to harden its critical infrastructure

04:31to protect it from being attacked that way.

04:34That was German Lailari, a visiting scholar at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

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