NBA Betting Insights: Props and Predictions for Tonight

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00:00All right, we got Brad Thomas back with us.

00:02Brad loves these props in the NBA.

00:04Sometimes he likes sides totals, but he loves these props.

00:06So I'm sure we're going to have some for you here.

00:08Let's bring Brad back on the show here on Newswire.

00:11We've got Houston, Cleveland tonight.

00:14This is probably one of the tightest lines you're going to see in the NBA

00:17between two really good teams.

00:19Houston is one and a half point favorites,

00:21probably on the strength that Cleveland just hasn't played their best basketball in November.

00:24Total 233 and a half.

00:26It seems like they're coming on, though, a little bit, I would say, Brad,

00:28based on results here, any opinion on this?

00:31Or do you want to just dive right into these player props here?

00:34I'm seeing Durant, Sangin, Mitchell, and Mobley up here.

00:38So I'll give you the floor.

00:40Yeah, I think I slightly lean to the Rockets here,

00:43but I don't have a super strong reason outside of just availability

00:46to take the Rockets over the Cavs,

00:49and maybe the Cavs being two and six against the spread at home.

00:52But yeah, I actually have two player props in this game

00:55if you want to go over to the player props,

00:56because I feel like this is one of those games

00:58where you can get sneaky with an under here.

01:02All right, so let's take a look at those props here.

01:04Kevin Durant, Mitchell, Mobley, what's your favorite of these?

01:08Yeah, my favorite is Donovan Mitchell,

01:10and it's going to be the chalky under 28 and a half.

01:13It's a sell-high spot, scored 30-plus in three straight.

01:18Also, I think that the Houston Rockets are such a well-coached defensive team.

01:24They're going to do anything in their power to get the ball out of his hands, right?

01:27No, Darius Garland also on that team.

01:30So, excuse me, he's out for injury.

01:32So that kind of, you're not as afraid.

01:34Sam Merrill's going to be out.

01:36Then you're like, we're definitely not afraid of him kicking it out,

01:38and we send a double or we trap.

01:40So I think 28 and a half against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA

01:43is a really solid under.

01:45I also like an over for Kevin Durant, over three and a half assists.

01:50Now, this more so is a definite yes.

01:52They're going to trap and blitz Kevin Durant even double.

01:57And him having, I think he averaged from four assists per game.

02:01I don't really care so much about that,

02:02but I do care about the potential assists per game,

02:04which is closer to that eight to nine variety and the game flow.

02:07I think that three and a half around minus 115.

02:10I think I got at minus 105 this morning,

02:12but it's around minus 115 is a really good number there.

02:16Raptors have won four straight games.

02:18They seem to be scoring at will.

02:20One of the top offensive teams in the East,

02:22they'll take on the Philadelphia 76ers and Tyrese Maxey today.

02:25Total of 234 and a half.

02:28And the breakdown here, it looks like to me, Brad,

02:30the last time the Raptors lost was at home to the Philadelphia 76ers.

02:35So if that is the case, does that give the Sixers the edge tonight,

02:40having won the first one?

02:41How does that work this evening?

02:43Yeah, maybe, right?

02:44Like the 76ers should have some confidence,

02:46but I actually like the Raptors.

02:47I think they're playing a little bit of better basketball.

02:49Two of these teams are really evenly matched.

02:51I think the Raptors hold the edge defensively, right?

02:54This is the 76ers team that doesn't really play any defense at all,

02:57but they're also really banged up, right?

03:00PG-13 is out again.

03:01Oubre is going to be out this game.

03:03Joel Embiid is doubtful.

03:04And one thing that I don't think gets talked about enough,

03:07you can't keep playing Tyrese Maxey 40-plus minutes, 38 minutes per game.

03:12He played 40-plus minutes in back-to-back games.

03:14I don't think that's sustainable.

03:16I have a slight lean to the Raptors,

03:18but not really strong on the side or total there.

03:22I'm a little surprised at this line here.

03:25It tells me Jimmy Butler's not playing tonight here, Brad,

03:27if I had to guess.

03:28The Heat's six-and-a-half-point favorites.

03:29How is that possible?

03:31Against the Golden State Warriors,

03:32total of 234-and-a-half.

03:34Is it possible that the Heat is better than Golden State?

03:37Yes.

03:38Have you seen the Heat play this season?

03:39Every single game is going right down to the last shot,

03:43whether they win or they lose,

03:45including the game against the Knicks the other day.

03:47So the game will tip off at 7.30 Eastern,

03:50but they're not making lines of Heat minus six-and-a-half

03:53unless Butler's out here, right?

03:55Like, that's it.

03:56Is there anything to say?

03:57Maybe Butler, maybe Curry.

03:58This is one of those games where I'll tell any sports bettor,

04:01trying to get into prop betting,

04:03be careful of taking player props in this game

04:06because this is your classic blowout spot

04:09where the Miami Heat can just absolutely obliterate

04:12the Golden State Warriors, hence the six-and-a-half-point spread.

04:15If we're being fully transparent,

04:16I took Miami Heat minus 13-and-a-half at plus 350,

04:20and I took minus 21-and-a-half.

04:24I think 22-point win would be the blowout range for me at plus 650.

04:28And why is that, right?

04:29The Golden State Warriors aren't that bad of a team,

04:32but they play – this would be their sixth road game in nine days.

04:36They're on the last game of an East Coast road trip

04:39on the last night off a back-to-back.

04:42It's a mouthful, and it's a lot of, like,

04:44some of that stuff working in my brain,

04:45but it just makes a ton of sense against a team

04:47that's going to play some really fast basketball.

04:49I think Jimmy Butler does play,

04:52but Steve Kerr has been notorious for doing this.

04:54When they play on these back-to-backs on a road trip,

04:57if their team starts out slow, he is really quick to pull the plug

05:01because you can't just say, I'm going to sit Jimmy Butler,

05:04I'm going to sit Draymond, I'm going to sit Stephen Curry

05:07and get away with it, right, without a real injury

05:10or load management or whatever the new phrase is

05:13kind of rationale behind it.

05:15Right.

05:15Why not just go ahead and pull the plug?

05:17You go down 10, 15, going into the third quarter

05:21or halfway through the third quarter, why not pull the plug?

05:24Why not take your guys out?

05:25You're not going to have them play more than 20, 25 minutes,

05:28and you're not going to get penalized for it.

05:30In the grand scheme of things, this team just wants to make the playoffs.

05:33Winning a game on the road, on the second half of the back-to-back,

05:36on the last night of your East Coast road trip

05:38is not all that important.

05:40So I think this could be a really weird, funky game

05:44where players don't play a lot

05:45and fans get really upset who are betting player props,

05:48especially betting overs.

05:50Yeah, and for those people who bought tickets to see Steph Curry

05:53in Miami, they're not going to be happy either,

05:56if that's the case.

05:57Knicks coming off that loss in Miami,

05:59six-and-a-half-point favorites tonight at Dallas.

06:01New York has not won yet on the road this season.

06:03They're 0-5.

06:04We know the Mavericks just have everybody sitting.

06:07I did see Jalen Brunson warming up with the Knicks in the last game.

06:11I think he's still going to miss time.

06:12I'm not sure if that includes tonight.

06:14Carl Anthony Towns will play.

06:16Minus six-and-a-half.

06:17Knicks at Mavericks tonight.

06:19Who do you like?

06:20Yeah, I like the New York Knicks.

06:22It is a little bit of a scary line.

06:23I thought I would have made it closer to six, six-and-a-half.

06:27They're at four, four-and-a-half.

06:28I'm like, what am I missing?

06:29I know Jalen Brunson's probably not going to be out.

06:31OG on an OB is going to be out in this game as well.

06:33But the New York Knicks, desperate for that first away win,

06:38that road win against a Mavericks team that I just don't think is that good.

06:41When Cooper Flagg, no disrespect to the young Rook,

06:44is your leading scorer, 15 points per game,

06:46you're going to have a lot of issues.

06:48You're going to have to lean heavily on their defense.

06:50They're 29th in offensive rating, which is not anything to write home about.

06:55So I think the Knicks are just going to have too much firepower against them

06:58and win and cover this game.

07:01All right, Brad.

07:02Great stuff as always.

07:02Thanks for coming on the show.

07:03We'll catch up again next week.

07:05Absolutely.

07:05Thanks for having me.

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