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Finland’s President Alexander Stubb is issuing one of Europe’s clearest warnings yet: a Ukraine ceasefire is unlikely anytime soon, and the continent must prepare for a prolonged conflict. In a detailed interview with The Associated Press, Stubb says Europe will need resilience — or what Finns call “sisu” — to face the difficult months ahead.

In this video, we break down Stubb’s key messages and their strategic implications - Why Stubb believes negotiations are unlikely before spring, Why only Trump, in Stubb’s view, should negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin, how Finland’s history with Russia and its concept of 'Sisu' shape its strategic outlook, and what Europe can do now to maintain pressure on Moscow.

#Finland #UkraineWar #AlexanderStubb #Sisu #EuropeanSecurity #Russia #Ukraine #APNews #Geopolitics #NATO #HybridWarfare

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Transcript
00:00Finland's president is warning that Europe may be in for a long winter when
00:10it comes to the war in Ukraine. In an interview with the Associated Press,
00:14President Alexander Stubbs said a ceasefire is unlikely before spring and
00:18urged European leaders to stay focused despite mounting challenges both on and
00:24off the battlefield. On a frigid training ground north of Helsinki, Finland's
00:31President Alexander Stubbs watched volunteers practice evacuating wounded
00:35soldiers. His jacket carried a single defining word, Sisu, the Finnish term for
00:41endurance and grit. And it's exactly what he says Europe needs right now. Speaking
00:48with the Associated Press, Stubbs said he doesn't expect a ceasefire in Ukraine at
00:53least this year. He added that while it would be good to get something going by
00:58March, the path ahead is far from simple. Stubbs acknowledged that Ukraine is
01:05dealing with a corruption scandal involving allegations of kickbacks and
01:09embezzlement, a situation he warned plays into the hands of Russia. Still, the
01:14Finland president urged European allies not to let that derail military or
01:20financial support, especially at a time when Russia is making slow but steady gains on
01:25the battlefield. For Finland, the stakes resonate deeply. The country shares an
01:31830 mile border with Russia. In the 1940s, after two wars with Russia, the country
01:37lost about 10 percent of its territory to Moscow and agreed to become militarily
01:42neutral. After decades of neutrality, Finland formally joined NATO following Russia's full-scale
01:49invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
01:54Stubb also occupies a unique diplomatic role. According to AP, he maintains a close personal
02:00rapport with US President Donald Trump, having played golf with him and speaking regularly.
02:06He says that helps him convey Europe's concerns directly.
02:13I can explain to President Trump what Finland went through, or how I see the situation on
02:18the battlefield, or how do you deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And then, you know,
02:25if he accepts one out of ten ideas, that's good.
02:29AP also reported that Stubb praised Trump's October sanctions on Russian energy giants Lukoil
02:36and Rosneft, calling the move an excellent job. Still, he argues that more pressure is needed,
02:44including tapping into frozen Russian assets in Europe to help fund Ukraine and strengthening
02:49Kyiv's ability to strike Russia's military infrastructure.
02:52Ukraine, he noted, is still negotiating with the US for more advanced weapons systems.
02:59Diplomatically, the situation remains fluid. In mid-October, the White House announced that
03:06Trump would meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest, only to cancel the meeting days later.
03:11Stubb told the AP that the reversal followed a call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
03:17and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during which Rubio likely realized the Russians
03:24haven't moved an inch.
03:27Stubb said navigating Trump's swings between pressuring and courting both Putin and Zelensky
03:32requires patience. Another form of diplomatic sisu.
03:38You can't have illusions about things that you would like to see happening.
03:43I've tried personally to focus on things such as, we need security guarantees for Ukraine.
03:50How to build those? We need a ceasefire. How can we get that? It's been a bit of a grind.
03:57I guess you need sisu in these types of negotiations as well.
04:04Despite Ukraine's recent missteps, Stubb told the AP he has deep respect for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
04:10Stubb believes his role, and that of other European leaders, is to act as a bridge between Trump and Zelensky.
04:19But when it comes to Putin, he told the AP that only one person should negotiate directly and publicly,
04:26and that is President Trump.
04:29Meanwhile, all this is playing out while Russia steps up hybrid attacks across Europe.
04:34Several countries have reported drone incursions, suspected sabotage, and disinformation campaigns.
04:41In Stubb's words, as the line between war and peace has been blurred,
04:46and that Russia aims to cause havoc and panic across the continent,
04:51his advice for Europe is the same message printed on the back of his jacket.
04:55Be Finnish. Be cool, calm, collected, and have a little bit of that sisu.
05:02Build a us as a bridge for mass.
05:03Bear farts are influenced by the Ukrainian
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