00:00The warning from a senior German military official
00:08has sent ripples through NATO's defence circles.
00:11Lieutenant General Alexander Solfrank,
00:14the man responsible for Germany's defence planning
00:17and head of the nation's Joint Operations Command,
00:20says Russia could launch a limited attack on NATO
00:23as early as tomorrow if it wanted to.
00:26It's not a prediction, he clarified,
00:30but a stark reminder of how quickly
00:32Europe's security landscape could change.
00:37If you look at Russia's current capabilities and combat power,
00:41Russia could kick off a small-scale attack
00:44against NATO territory as early as tomorrow.
00:47Small, quick, regionally limited.
00:50Nothing big.
00:52Russia is too tied down in Ukraine for that.
00:56In his words,
00:59Solfrank's statement comes as tensions
01:01between Russia and NATO reach new heights.
01:04Since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
01:08both sides have traded accusations,
01:10Russia insisting it's defending itself
01:13from NATO's expansionist ambitions,
01:15while Western allies accuse the Kremlin of waging
01:18a hybrid war across Europe through cyberattacks,
01:21sabotage operations and airspace incursions.
01:26But beyond words,
01:28Solfrank's warning underscores a deeper anxiety
01:31that Russia's ongoing rearmament
01:33could reshape Europe's military balance
01:36within the next few years.
01:37He says if Moscow's military build-up continues
01:40at its current pace,
01:42a much larger assault on NATO could become possible by 2029.
01:50Speaking from his headquarters in northern Berlin,
01:52Solfrank described how,
01:54despite suffering significant losses in Ukraine,
01:57Russia's air force still retains substantial combat strength.
02:01Its nuclear and missile forces, he noted,
02:04remain entirely intact.
02:07Even though the Black Sea Fleet has been heavily hit,
02:10the rest of Russia's naval power,
02:12particularly in the northern and Pacific fleets,
02:14remains formidable.
02:19The ground forces are suffering losses,
02:22but Russia says it aims to boost its total troop numbers
02:25to one and a half million soldiers.
02:28And Russia has enough main battle tanks
02:30to make a limited attack conceivable as early as tomorrow.
02:36These comments carry weight
02:38not just because of Solfrank's position,
02:40but because of his experience.
02:42Before taking over Germany's Joint Operations Command,
02:45which was established only last year,
02:47he led NATO's Logistics Command in Ulm.
02:51His shift in focus reflects a broader change in NATO priorities,
02:55away from overseas missions like Afghanistan and Mali,
02:59and back toward defending Europe itself.
03:03Recent drone incursions into Polish airspace
03:06have only heightened those fears.
03:08Across the continent,
03:10there's growing concern that Moscow is testing NATO's response,
03:14probing its defences and perhaps even its unity.
03:17Berlin, meanwhile, is racing to adapt.
03:21Germany has announced a major increase in defence spending,
03:25loosening its constitutional debt break
03:27to meet NATO's new military spending target
03:30of 3.5% of national output by 2029.
03:34That means boosting its defence budget
03:36from around €100 billion in 2025
03:40to an enormous €160 billion by the end of the decade.
03:47The German armed forces are also set to expand by 60,000 troops,
03:51bringing their total strength to about 260,000 personnel.
03:57It's a massive shift for a country that only a decade ago
04:00hesitated to discuss military readiness at all.
04:04But will it be enough?
04:06Solfrank believes that the question of whether Russia
04:09might actually attack NATO depends on three key factors.
04:13Moscow's military strength, its track record, and its leadership.
04:19These three factors, he said, lead me to the conclusion
04:22that a Russian attack is in the realm of the possible.
04:25Whether it will happen or not depends to a large extent
04:28on our own behaviour.
04:32He emphasised that NATO's deterrence,
04:35its ability to signal strength and unity,
04:37will be the deciding factor in whether the Kremlin dares to act.
04:43At the same time, Solfrank warns that Russia's hybrid warfare tactics,
04:47drone incursions, cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns
04:51must not be seen as isolated acts.
04:55The Russians call this non-linear warfare,
04:57he explained.
04:58In their doctrine, this is warfare before resorting to conventional weapons,
05:02and they threaten to use nuclear weapons,
05:04which is warfare by intimidation.
05:09The goal, he said, is not necessarily to start a conventional war,
05:13but to provoke NATO to test its reactions and to sow fear and division.
05:17Russia wants to foster insecurity, spread fear, do damage, spy,
05:22and test the alliance's resilience, Solfrank warned.
05:29For now, NATO insists it is ready,
05:32that any attack on one ally will be treated as an attack on all.
05:35But as Russia rearms and its rhetoric hardens,
05:38the line between hybrid and open warfare grows thinner by the day.
05:46In Europe's capitals, the message from Berlin is being heard loud and clear.
05:51Peace cannot be taken for granted,
05:53and deterrence is once again the language of survival.
05:57.
06:18.
06:19You
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