- 4 hours ago
The Axis My India projections suggest a neck-and-neck race in Bihar. The NDA’s vote share is expected to rise from 37% in 2020 to 43%, while the Mahagathbandhan is close behind at 41%.
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00:00Let me tell you, if there is one thing we are going to look at in Bihar, apart from the caste factor that traditionally is looked at, this time, it's the Mahila vote.
00:09And in a moment, my colleague Preeti Chaudhary is just going to the election intelligence dashboard to tell you just why the Mahila vote in Bihar has never been more crucial.
00:20Remember, we've had a record turnout across male and female and we'll tell you exactly why that woman vote could be critical.
00:29Over to you, Preeti.
00:30All right, you know, Rajdeep, what we're doing is cumulatively looking at all phases.
00:35There were only two this time around.
00:37And one thing is for sure, Rajdeep, if we hark back ever since independence, Bihar has not voted in the sheer might that it has voted this time around.
00:45So if we go on to our election intelligence dashboard and mind you, over the course of the next three days, you're going to see so much data analytics coming up and popping up on this screen.
00:56And what all is possible is just amazing.
00:59But take a look to look at all the phases, that two-phase election that happened in terms of turnout.
01:06I want to quickly look at the numbers there.
01:08Right from 2010, you can see that steady rise in turnout.
01:112025, it was a whopping 67%.
01:14You go a little deeper in terms of the microdata.
01:17Second phase has voted more than the first phase.
01:19But what many say, the vote of Bihar hinges on and is the Mahila vote, the woman vote.
01:25So let's quickly look at the gender breakup this election.
01:30And you see it right there on your television screen.
01:33It's a whopping difference of 9% where it comes down to between, you can see the blue.
01:39You know, we've gone to the traditional stereotypes of markers.
01:42So blue is male, the pink is female.
01:43But if you see it right from 2010, constantly increasing, the woman pulling away.
01:50The last time around, it was a 6% difference 2020.
01:53And many say women were undercounted.
01:56And therefore, the anomalies, Rajdeep, that we had seen in many exit poll data.
02:00But this time around, look at the figure there, Rajdeep.
02:04A 9% difference between the women and the men voting percentage.
02:09Just to tell you, the Axis My India poll numbers will be out shortly.
02:14We have the first teaser of the Axis My India poll numbers.
02:19And these are percentages.
02:21We actually have the Axis My India exit poll percentages.
02:25It's giving the NDA at the moment 43% of the vote.
02:3143% of the vote as per Axis My India is going to NDA.
02:37Maha Ghatbandhan of the opposition, 41%.
02:39So very close.
02:4143%, 41%, you would presume 2% is within the margin of error.
02:47The Jan Suraj party is at 4%.
02:50Others are at 12%.
02:53Those are the first key details that we are getting.
02:55I also, while we put those graphics up for you,
02:59want to tell you to take off from what Preeti said.
03:02Remember, the turnout from women was about 9% more.
03:06How does that translate into total number of votes?
03:092.47 crore men voted in Bihar.
03:14Big numbers.
03:15Keep it in mind.
03:152.47 men voted.
03:182.52 crore women voted.
03:21So the difference, this is the first time in Bihar's history that women have voted more than men in absolute numbers as well.
03:29Average excess votes cast by women is 1,767 per constituency.
03:37Why does this matter?
03:39Take a look at this.
03:40In 2020, in where the seats where women voters exceeded men was 119.
03:47Out of the 243 seats in Bihar, 119 women voters exceeded men.
03:53The NDA was leading in 72 out of them.
03:56That's 60.5%.
03:58The Maha Gatbandhan in 42, that's 35.3%.
04:04So you would expect the NDA to have an advantage from Mahila.
04:08But as you can see, even before Gaurav, you go to the next set,
04:13the fact that Pradeep Gupta and Axis have come up with these numbers.
04:17NDA 43, Maha Gatbandhan 41.
04:21Is this now turning out to be a very tight race?
04:25I know 1% in Bihar can make a huge difference in seats.
04:28But a quick response, Rajat Sethi, to the first big numbers coming in, in the Axis My India exit poll.
04:352% is a lot.
04:372% would signify a clean sweep for the NDA.
04:40In 2020, when both the vote shares of both Maha Gatbandhan and NDA were almost exactly same at 36%,
04:46we still saw NDA doing better in terms of seat conversion.
04:51Therefore, I have no doubt at all that if these numbers were to hold, it would be a clean sweep for the NDA.
04:56With the polling percentage, Rajat Sethi, let me highlight one fundamental factor as to why the polling percentage,
05:03both in women and in men, have gone up.
05:05It is because of the SIR exercise.
05:07SIR exercise has been able to remove duplicate votes, fictitious votes, out of the voting list,
05:13which naturally reduces the denominator.
05:16If the denominator goes down by 40, 50 lakh votes, it naturally has an impact on higher polling percentage.
05:23So while there has been an exuberance of voters, there is an over-encompassing factor,
05:29which is the SIR, which has reduced the voters and removed certain voters from the list, which were fictitious.
05:35This is the reason why the voting percentage is record high, as you are seeing this time.
05:39Okay. Do you think, Sajjan Kumar, this is within the margin of error?
05:4343% NDA, 41% Maagadbandan, 4% only to Jan Suraj, 12% others.
05:50Do you get a sense that these first numbers from the Axis My India poll are within the margin of error?
05:55And make it a very close contest as per their poll?
05:59If you go by the polling percentage, then certainly one can say it's not a sweep for NDA.
06:05But in terms of 2% for Bihar, wherein you always find constituency level, people say that it's a very close contest.
06:122% gives a directional clarity, right?
06:14And therefore, as far as the directional clarity is concerned, it syncs with the ground feedback that we all were getting.
06:20Two, only discrepancy that we find in this is the others who are getting 12%.
06:25Because if you see the consistency of others or independents in Bihar, it's in and around 8%, right?
06:31So I think this data, 12%, which is going to the other, needs to be factored in.
06:35But as far as 2% lead is concerned, I agree with Rajat that it's going to give a directional clarity that NDA is ahead.
06:43Okay, we'll wait and see how this is translating into numbers as per the Access My India poll.
06:49But I want to get in quick comments from Manisha and Javed.
06:52Manisha, you first there.
06:54Do you get a sense that we are now witnessing perhaps a tough fight if these numbers hold, particularly the Jant Suraj at 4%?
07:03Should the Jant Suraj be underpolled by some circumstance, this election could change again?
07:09Let me not get to the pivot point of Jant Suraj.
07:11But let me say that at these numbers, at 41 and 43, it still seems like an election which is about Nitish and which is about Lalu.
07:22The fulcrum of these elections is still a lot about those who are anti-Lalu and wouldn't want to get him and his ilk back.
07:28And it is still about Nitish and those who would want to say thank you even in the sunset day of politics.
07:34Yes, a pivot coming out.
07:36But remember, Jant Suraj and Prashant Kishore have their origins in the support that he lended once to Nitish.
07:42I do see these numbers as very credible.
07:45It did seem like a neck-and-neck fight.
07:47But the NDA ahead and that's what the percentages show here.
07:50Interestingly, last time, both the main alliances were around the 37% mark.
07:55So, these numbers would suggest a 6% increase in the NDA.
08:00Not surprising because Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwa have joined the alliance compared to 2020.
08:05And it shows even the Mahagadbandan going up from 37 to 41.
08:12Again, not surprising because this time they've also got the VIP party on their side who could bring a 3% to 4% possibly to their rank.
08:20Javed Ansari, first quick comments.
08:22So, it's not surprising.
08:24It's very much in line with what the reporters from the ground have been telling you.
08:28Which, of course, again, not surprisingly is at variance with what the pundits sitting in air-conditioned studios have been saying.
08:35So, I'm not surprised and I still believe it will go down to the wire.
08:39Although, having said that, I will also be not surprised if India doesn't eventually turn out to be the winner.
08:46Okay.
08:47Now, remember, is Bihar a state which is voting for the incumbent?
08:53Neetish Kumar has been chief minister for 20 years with just one short gap between 2013 and 2014.
09:00Otherwise, he's been dominant, the longest-serving chief minister of the Hindi heartland.
09:05Is Bihar a pro-incumbency or an anti-incumbency state is one of the big questions.
09:11Even as we are bringing you that breaking news of Access My India poll giving 43% to the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, 41% to the Mahagadbandan.
09:22Krashant Kishore's Jan Suraj is at only 4%.
09:26Others are 12%.
09:28So, a 2% gap in Bihar can become 20-30 seats at the very minimum in difference between the two alliances.
09:36Remember, last time, there was only 12,000 votes that separated the two alliances.
09:41And yet, there was a healthy 18-seat edge eventually to the NDA.
09:46Pro-incumbency, anti-incumbency.
09:50Gaurav Savan, take it away.
09:51Give us a sense to our viewers of the history of Bihar.
09:55So, Rajdi, Bihar has had a history.
09:58And let's take it from pre-independence.
10:01Oh, for the sake of this conversation.
10:03Three phases from 1950 to 77, which was seen as the Congress era, 1990 to 2005, which was seen as Lalu era, and 2005 onwards, which was seen as the Nitish Kumar era.
10:17When you talk about 1950 to 77, Sri Krishna Singh, actually from 1946 onwards, Sri Krishna Singh, the second longest serving Chief Minister then of Bihar,
10:29almost 15 years seen as the architect of modern Bihar.
10:33Then the Ramanohar Lohia agitation, 67, 68, that's the era that saw a little change that was happening in Bihar, the era of change.
10:43Garpuri Thakur became the Chief Minister.
10:45Then, of course, again, you had the emergency, post-emergency.
10:49You had a number of Chief Ministers who were coming and going.
10:52So, there was a period of pro-incumbency.
10:54Then there was a period of flux in Bihar, a number of Chief Ministers coming and going.
10:58Let me then take you to the Lalu Prasad Yadav era.
11:02You know, from 1990 to 2005, seven long years, Lalu Yadav, he was Chief Minister till the time he was charge-sheeted in the Forda scam case.
11:12Then for eight long years, practically eight years, Rabri Devi was the Chief Minister.
11:16Very briefly, you had an era when Nitish Kumar came in.
11:20But it was almost 15 years of Lalu Raj till 2005 when Nitish Kumar came in and how.
11:27Look at the election of 2010.
11:30That 2010 election that was seen as an absolute game-changer at that time in Bihar.
11:36The BJP and JDU had 206 seats on their own.
11:43And then, post-2010, whoever Nitish Kumar was with, was the government in power.
11:50If he was with RJD, it was RJD and Nitish.
11:53If it was with BJP, it was BJP and Nitish.
11:55But Nitish Kumar was Chief Minister.
11:57Brief period when Jitana Ramanji came in.
11:59Now is the big question, Rajdeep.
12:02Is it Nitish Kumar who will be sworn in as Chief Minister for the 10th time in Bihar,
12:07breaking his own record and creating history again?
12:09It's quite remarkable, actually, what Nitish Kumar has done.
12:12What we are now getting you immediately is also the caste breakdown as per the Axis My India poll.
12:18Maria, you've got the details of the caste breakdown.
12:21Because remember, in Bihar, we can discuss the Mahila factor and we will discuss that.
12:26And the Yuva factor, the new MY as it's called.
12:29But ultimately, caste is an enduring reality.
12:32If these are the big numbers, Maria, 43% to the NDA and 41% to the Mahagadbandan.
12:38Where are the votes coming from?
12:40What is the kind of caste coalition that is working for the NDA and what is working for the Mahagadbandan?
12:47So if you look at the direct calculation, Rajdeep, 37% last time to 43% right now,
12:52as is being projected by Axis My India, is this coming from the Paswans?
12:57If you look at it, the caste-wise breakdown is that Paswans' actual percentage is 5%,
13:02of which 64% have voted for the NDA as per Axis My India.
13:07And when we look at the crucial EBCs, they are 15%.
13:11And because we are looking at EBCs just as EBCs, they're not adding the Kurmis, the Telis.
13:16In that, 61% have voted for the NDA, which essentially means that not much of the EBC mobilization
13:24has happened outside the crucial, that aspect of it, which is the Mallas.
13:31So if you look at it, if you break down that further, Ravidas, however, have more percentage,
13:37they are tilted towards the MGB, they are in all 5%, of which 36% have gone to the MGB,
13:4432% to the NDA.
13:46SCs, again, if you look at it, 52% have gone towards the NDA.
13:50This is out of the total percentage of their population, which is 5%.
13:53So the number which I'm looking at is, again, the EBCs, which is 15% in all, 61% still going
14:00towards Nitish Kumar and realizing that he is that person who can consolidate the EBCs
14:05minus the Mallas.
14:07So you're saying about 60% plus of 15%.
14:11Total EBCs is 26%, am I correct?
14:13But you're not including here.
14:16No.
14:16No, if you add the Paswanda Muslims, it becomes 36%, 26% EBCs, but you have taken essentially
14:23the, you've taken out Kurmi's queries out of that.
14:27Absolutely.
14:27And therefore, Pradeep Gupta's axis is looking at 15% and Kurmi's queries separately.
14:32Yes.
14:33And Bushwas.
14:33Yes.
14:34So according to Pradeep Gupta's axis by India, Kurmi is of 4% Kurmi, 68% have gone towards
14:40the NDA.
14:41Again, in that, if you look at Thales, an important constituency, there was this calculation,
14:46that because of IP Gupta, there would be a shift towards the Mahagadband and that doesn't
14:50seem to be happening.
14:51Teli in all have 3% of which 61% is going towards the NDA.
14:56Okay.
14:56So essentially, we've got Muslims and Yadavs firmly with the MGB.
15:01Yes.
15:01MGB getting a section of the Dalit vote, but MGB not getting the extremely backward caste
15:08and other groups that they need in a way to try and go ahead of the NDA as per the poll.
15:14Remember, these are exit poll findings.
15:17These are not final findings.
15:19But I want reactions again to that, what you're just hearing on this caste breakdown.
15:23Are you surprised at all, Manisha Priyam?
15:25It seems more or less caste identities are holding.
15:29We can talk about Mahila.
15:30We'll talk about, but the caste identities as per the axis by India poll are by and large
15:35holding.
15:36Small dents made in the Dalit vote, but not large enough for the Mahagadband to topple the
15:41NDA at the moment.
15:42So two things in the caste alliance that you see from the caste prism then that will tell
15:47you that the dominant Yadavs form the core bank of the MGB and the Kourmi-led coalition
15:54of the EBCs.
15:54Remember, there's a leader for the EBCs, which are the Kourmis.
15:58That sustains the NDA on the other side.
16:00The only dent that happens is in the areas where the CPIML is strong.
16:04And there you see the Kanu is chipping it away on behalf of the ideology-led coalition led
16:11by the CPIML, the Dalits, the Mahadalits.
16:14So that's the area, the regional map.
16:17This time around, the BJPs tried to breach it.
16:19Let's see how far they can go in terms of breaching what is the CPIML stronghold.
16:24Rajdeep, if I could quickly come in, the Mahagadbandhan may have talked about trying to breach it
16:29and moving forward, but are they getting the VIP votes in their favor?
16:33Look at their friendly fights that are happening.
16:35The so-called friendly fights, they're happening with the VIP, which is seen as an alliance partner.
16:39Has he given us a separate forum?
16:41Has he given us a separate forum?
16:43Look at Chenapur, look at Bildo.
16:45What is the Malla vote?
16:4646% of Malla vote going to NDA, 40% going to MGB.
16:54So they take on it, Rajdeep.
16:56That means if 40% has gone to the Mahagadbandhan, that clearly suggests that the vote has split,
17:02which had en masse in 2020, nearly all of it had gone to the NDA.
17:07It has split and it has gone to the MGB.
17:09Can I just ask you though, Preeti, you travel through some of the Malla areas.
17:14Now, these are fishermen in large parts of Bihar along the Ganga.
17:19The fact is they're about 3-4%.
17:21No one has an exact number of the total number across.
17:24But they are in almost every constituency in a large belt in Mithilanchal, in Tirhut, in large parts.
17:31I want to understand, the MGB announced Mukesh Saini as their deputy chief minister.
17:39Despite that, they've not got a majority.
17:41The point is, the MGB was obviously hoping that they would sweep this Malla vote by putting up a deputy chief minister.
17:47That has not happened.
17:48No, I've travelled the entire length of the Riverine belt where, you know, the population of mallas is a lot.
17:54The VIP actually only has influence in the upper north area, Madhubani, Darbhanga.
17:58This is where the VIP actually holds.
18:00You go down to Gaya, if you meet a Malla, he doesn't even know who Mukesh Saini actually is.
18:04So, there is a difference.
18:05The Maha Gatbandhan was hoping to break that 3-4% vote and pull in a segment to it.
18:12That, if I'm going to look at these numbers, if 40% of the Malla vote has actually gone to the MGB,
18:17then the MGB has done its job in terms of fracturing the Malla vote.
18:21But I'll give you an interesting story that a Congress leader who was working in one of those areas told me.
18:26He said,
18:26So, breaking that is not easy.
18:32The symbol association has remained in a way with Nitish Kumar.
18:36I want to understand that this EBC vote, Sajjan Kumar, very quickly.
18:39Because many believe that we look at Nitish Kumar and, yes, Mahila first leader.
18:43Brought in prohibition, brought in reservations in local bodies, brought in cycles for girls.
18:48But, he has consciously cultivated the EBCs who felt left out of Lalu Prasad's social justice revolution.
18:55Explain to us the importance of the EBC factor.
18:58Look, in Bihar, EBCs has been...
19:00Extremely backward caste for viewers.
19:02Has been constituted.
19:03So, there has been a subcategory within the OBCs since 1978 when Karpuri Thakur came.
19:08And he carefully nurtured and ensured that the leadership of backward caste should not go
19:12into the hands of the dominant OBCs.
19:14Which came in 1990 with Lalu Prasad Yadav for the first time into the hands of the Yadavs.
19:18And thereafter, they felt left out because overwhelmingly it catered to the Yadavs.
19:22So, when Nitish came into power, he carefully nurtured EBCs by schemes and by ensuring that the women,
19:29by the law and order plank and by welfare schemes, they are given priority.
19:33So, Sajjan and Roshan both were the plank which nurtured them as a formidable constituency and they came together.
19:40And that is why still you see in their everyday experience what they see that which leadership is providing them
19:46a sort of assurance in terms of welfare schemes as well as in terms of a better perception of law and order.
19:54And on this both plank, he remains the trusted leader.
19:57You know, I just want a quick point from Javed Ansari because this has been a problem that the Mahagadbandan has faced.
20:04The fear of Jangal Raj.
20:06And EBCs in particular have felt that if Lalu Prasad's son comes back, Yadav Raj comes back.
20:13And that has in a way, these EBCs voted for Lalu Prasad, 1990, 1995.
20:18They are the ones who have drifted away.
20:20Do you sense that Lalu Prasad still haunts Tejasvi in some way in the Mahagadbandan if these numbers hold?
20:25Yes, and I think Tejasvi has failed in emulating the kind of, in broadening his tent and emulating Akhilesh.
20:37Akhilesh also suffered.
20:39Samarwadi Pasi also carries this baggage of over-yadavization.
20:43But there he spread the tent in the last Roksabai elections.
20:47He, PDA, through PDA, he brought in other bad podcasts.
20:50Tejasvi has not been able to do it to the extent they ought to have got.
20:55And because they failed to chip away enough and more of EBC and Mahadalits,
21:00and therein lies the reason for the performance of these.
21:04You know, it's interesting because Tejasvi gave 51 seats to Yadavs, 19 to Muslims, 18 to Muslims.
21:09So 69 out of his 140-odd are Muslims and Yadavs.
21:12He tried to give EBCs and Kushwas in particular, hoping that he could attract them.
21:16But it is not easy to build that kind of coalition.
21:19There was an infighting going on within the RJD and the VIP, within the RJD and the Congress,
21:26within the RJD and the, you know, IP Gupta's party.
21:29So when all of this is happening, how will you bring in caste so much?
21:32So Mukesh Sahani's brother, Santor Sahani, had to step down for an RJD candidate.
21:37One seat, Gaurab Waram.
21:38Look at Chenepur.
21:39Bridge Kishore Bind in RJD versus Govind Bind of the VIP.
21:43And instead of taking on the JDU, they're taking on each other.
21:45There's another example in Beldor, you know, where the Nishad party, where the, you know,
21:50Mithlesh Kumar Nishad versus the IIP candidate instead of taking on the JDU.
21:55So look at this infighting.
21:57There are good numbers coming.
21:58We want to focus today on numbers.
22:00One of those numbers is the Yuva vote.
22:02Maria, I want to first, you to explain before we go to the Access by India votes on age composition,
22:08why the youth vote?
22:09We keep mentioning Mahila and we did it at the outset.
22:12What is the youth factor in Bihar?
22:13Yes, so we have been talking about the Mahila factor.
22:16They have tilted the balance of power in favor of Nitish Kumar in 2020,
22:21clearly giving a decisive edge to the NDA.
22:24Now, what is the youth factor that is being discussed in the context of 2025 Bihar?
22:29Just look at these numbers here.
22:31In all, the total number of registered voters in Bihar stands at 7.43 crores,
22:36of which the young voters, which is male and female, in the age group of 18 to 30 is 1.63 crore,
22:45which is 22% of the total electorate.
22:49And again, the first-time voters, again, a very important category is 14.1 lakh voters.
22:55This becomes important because Bihar has been, you know, it is the state which is the youngest in terms of its demographic,
23:03but also has several complexities.
23:06And is the youth now despondent, frustrated with the current regime is the big question.
23:11Now, let's give you a sense of how this Juva or the youth of Bihar voted in 2020 polls.
23:17Look at this number.
23:18Again, in this age bracket of 18 to 29, they voted significantly for the NDA.
23:24The gap between the NDA and the Mahagat Bandhan in 2020 was 4%.
23:33I'll be asking the producer to put that on our television screens.
23:36In 2020, that age gap between, in that group of 18 to 29,
23:43Mahagat Bandhan got 37% of votes, NDA getting 41%.
23:48When we look at, again, this young men and young women,
23:51NDA and Mahagat Bandhan almost getting the same numbers.
23:55In fact, Mahagat Bandhan got 39%.
23:57NDA got 38%.
23:59What about now?
24:00Rajdeep, over to you.
24:01You know, that's interesting because the Access My India poll is saying the following.
24:05And listen to these numbers carefully.
24:07In their age-wise vote share, they are giving in the age group 20 to 29,
24:12many of them first-time voters and 22% of Bihar is this, 37% to NDA,
24:18but 44% to the Mahagat Bandhan.
24:21So, the Mahagat Bandhan actually has a 7% lead.
24:26Listen, you know, there has been so much talk of the youth factor, but a 7%.
24:31So, if the Mahagat Bandhan is still in the race, as per Access My India,
24:35it's the youth which is propelling Tejasvi Yadav forward.
24:40And Jan Suraj, which many people, the new party of Prashant Kishore, is just getting 6%.
24:46Now, if you go, on the other hand, to those who are over 60 to 69 age,
24:51here there is a 10% gap in favour of the NDA.
24:5549%, 39%.
24:56Remember, pensions were increased to Rs. 1100 just before the election.
25:02Go over 70.
25:03The age group over 70, the gap is 16%.
25:0651% to NDA and only 35% to Mahagat Bandhan.
25:10And what's the story?
25:12Those who have experienced Lalu Raj or have been there in the Lalu years
25:15seem reluctant to vote for possibly the Mahagat Bandhan.
25:20But the newer voters who are born in the 2000s are willing to experiment with the Tejasvi.
25:26Would I be right, Rajat Sethi?
25:28The younger you are in Bihar at the moment,
25:30the more you're willing to experiment with a non-NDA arrangement.
25:34Rajat, this is an NDA problem.
25:36And this is a pan-India problem.
25:38This also reflected in 2024.
25:39And we discussed this.
25:41That it is this young voter which hasn't experienced the UPA days,
25:44hasn't experienced the Lalu days.
25:46If you pick Madhya Pradesh, they haven't experienced Digvijay's days or years.
25:49So this segment of new voters who just don't know what a Congress rule looks like,
25:55what a Lalu rule looks like,
25:56they are toying with the idea because there is a degree of lack of jobs in the state.
26:02And they want and they are the fatigue factor results into maximum actionable events only in this segment.
26:09So I believe they have come out in the head that they can get.
26:11See, the interesting thing is, why have they not gone for Prashant Kishor?
26:15Prashant Kishor was banking on this youth factor as per the Axis My India poll.
26:20And remember, I want to put this caveat.
26:22When you're a new party, it is often that you get under-polled in exit polls
26:26because you may not have any past parameters to go by.
26:30Why have they not gone for Prashant Kishor?
26:33Why have they chosen a Tejasvi between 20 and 29?
26:35See, there are certain funds,
26:37and I have been following Prashant's journey over the past couple of years.
26:41I believe that he made a couple of basic errors.
26:44One was not contesting the election.
26:47Not contesting the election in a place which respects sacrifice.
26:53You know, you going out, contesting, fighting it out,
26:56doing a KJRWAL kind of a thing.
26:57I mean, wins and losses are a small thing when you're trying to be the challenger.
27:03If you're not being seen in that frame,
27:05that you can go out and challenge, there are going to be repercussions.
27:08You will not leave the campaign up to a crescendo.
27:11You need to build up the narrative and take it to a level.
27:14Yes, strong objection, go ahead.
27:16Number one, youth voters should be about 29%.
27:19At 22%, we are saying the SIR has left out the youth.
27:23How or why, I don't think.
27:24No, no, I am only, our figures show 22% of Bihar is between the age of 18 and 29,
27:30the highest in the country.
27:31Okay, fine.
27:32Now, out of that, at the moment, out of that, at the moment,
27:35Tejasvi Yadav and the Mahagadbandan have a 7% lead.
27:38Okay, so let me just tell you one thing,
27:40that if Prashant Kishore has not been standing with the youth,
27:44he has not understood the basics of Bihari politics.
27:46Since anti-congress politics has started in Bihar in the 1990s,
27:50it has been Sushil Modi,
27:52it has been Lalu Prasad Yadav,
27:54it has been Nitish Kumar,
27:56who were all youth politicians from Patna University.
28:00That has shifted.
28:01The poorer generation that has gone to schools under Nitish,
28:04now goes for coaching centers in Musallapurhat,
28:07right across Patna University.
28:09The fact is, that in Musallapurhat,
28:12the Kurmis, Kushwahas, Yadavs,
28:15there is a slugfest amongst OVC children.
28:17Who is out of that?
28:18Prashant Kishore and the Congress party not there.
28:21One second, let me just complete this point.
28:23I would say, in Gandhi Medan,
28:25where I heard Jay Prakash and Karkuri,
28:275 a.m. in the morning,
28:29you see barefoot young people running for Bharti.
28:33And therefore, I believe,
28:35that the primary demand of the youth in Bihar today,
28:37is Bharti and jobs.
28:40That's the point.
28:41It is not an Indian process.
28:42One minute.
28:45Prashant Kishore is also appealing to the youth
28:47that I will bring you jobs enough.
28:49You've tried up Lalu.
28:51You've tried Nitish.
28:52But he's not, as per this poll,
28:53gathering the traction,
28:54even among that youth demographic.
28:56That's my question.
28:57Because he's not seen as a serious contender.
29:00Because he's a first-timer.
29:01He's still not seen.
29:03While there is no doubt that he has,
29:05he's the only one
29:06who's laid down a futuristic road map.
29:09The others haven't.
29:10But just to dismiss this
29:12is because they haven't suffered
29:13under Congress and UPA.
29:15And therefore,
29:16they are going,
29:16that's not true.
29:17It's because there are not enough jobs
29:19and they are frustrated
29:20with the present dispensation.
29:22This is exactly anti-incumbency.
29:25You need to build it up.
29:26My problem is that
29:27could this have been
29:28a pan-age group
29:30sort of a phenomenon?
29:32Why did it not happen
29:33for a pan-age group phenomenon?
29:34It is the only...
29:35But Raj,
29:35juxtapose these numbers.
29:37Juxtapose these numbers
29:38on the youth vote in 2020.
29:40It practically mirrors
29:41the same divide.
29:42So what happened
29:43in terms of what the youth voted
29:45in the age group
29:46of 20 to 29 percent
29:48where you have,
29:49I think,
29:5037 percent NDA,
29:5144,
29:52so about 8 percent
29:53difference between NDA
29:54and the Mahagad Bandar
29:56in the youth.
29:56My sense is very clear.
29:58That practically mirrors
29:59those who have memories
29:59of what happened
30:00in the lalu years of 1990s
30:02are reluctant
30:03to turn the clock back.
30:04Yes.
30:05Do you agree with that?
30:06You grew up in that era.
30:07This is an election
30:08of memories
30:09as we have been saying.
30:10Good memories
30:11of Nitish Kumar
30:12as there is a sense
30:13of gratitude
30:14even among people
30:15who have seen his era
30:17and those
30:17children who have
30:19heard it from their parents.
30:20So when we say
30:21that this is a generation
30:22willing to experiment,
30:24let's also not forget
30:25that they may be
30:25also outside Bihar.
30:27They have seen
30:27certain things.
30:28They are willing
30:29to experiment
30:29on those lines.
30:30But Rajdeep,
30:31you know,
30:31one thing is clear
30:32that I have met
30:34in Jahanabad
30:34someone who was
30:36from the Bhumiyar community
30:37was working
30:38in Maharashtra
30:39who said
30:40that I would rather
30:41go with a Tejasvi
30:42who is promising
30:422.5 crore vote.
30:44You know,
30:44I just want to put
30:45very specific
30:45just 30 seconds.
30:46Axis My India poll.
30:48Yes.
30:49Unemployed.
30:50They've gone to
30:50occupation.
30:52Unemployed,
30:5234% NDA,
30:5449% Mahagadbandan.
30:56If you don't
30:57have a job today
30:58in Bihar,
30:59you have looked
30:59in this election
31:00to Tejasvi Yadav
31:02as an alternative.
31:03Now we can
31:03diss the fact
31:04that how will he
31:05provide 2.79 crore job
31:07because he said
31:07one job per household.
31:09Jant Suraj Rajdeep?
31:10The Jant Suraj
31:11is just 6%.
31:12Even in unemployment?
31:13Even in unemployment.
31:14Among students,
31:1533% NDA,
31:1748% Mahagadbandan.
31:19Then as you go higher,
31:21the real gap starts.
31:22If you are self-occupied
31:24or if you are a housewife,
31:25a housewife,
31:2648% are saying NDA,
31:2837% are saying Mahagadbandan.
31:31So law and order
31:32there becomes
31:33an important issue
31:34and there the memories
31:36come of the past.
31:37So again,
31:38if you say self-employed,
31:3949% NDA,
31:4136% Mahagadbandan.
31:43So the challenge
31:44really was
31:45that there was
31:45anti-incumbency.
31:46But how do I build
31:47on anti-incumbency
31:48if this exit poll
31:49is right?
31:50Has been a challenge
31:51for the Mahagadbandan
31:52and if these numbers
31:53are right,
31:54they have not yet
31:55been able to build on it.
31:56Even among farmers,
31:57it's virtually a dead heat
31:59but it is really
32:01among the unemployed
32:02for one side
32:03versus those
32:04who have occupations
32:05or housewives
32:05on the other.
32:06Yes, now Gaurav.
32:07You know,
32:07the only point
32:07I wanted to make
32:08was in the
32:09Seemanchal belt
32:10where it was believed
32:11that MGB will do
32:13extremely well
32:14and they may still do well.
32:15The youth parents
32:17said they're missing.
32:18They're outside.
32:18They've gone out
32:19looking for a job
32:19because there are no jobs
32:21in Bihar.
32:22So would they be voting
32:22point one?
32:23Point two,
32:24the other point
32:25they were raising was
32:26yes,
32:26there is delivery
32:27of Nitish Kumar
32:28versus promise
32:30of Tejasvi.
32:31Will Tejasvi
32:32deliver those
32:33one government
32:34job per family
32:35and how will he
32:36deliver that
32:3630,000 per month?
32:38That was the question
32:39they were asking.
32:40Okay,
32:40there are interesting
32:41also numbers
32:42coming in the
32:43Access by India
32:43poll on geography.
32:46Rural areas,
32:47NDA 43%,
32:48Mahagadbandhan 41%.
32:50Urban areas,
32:5144%,
32:52Mahagadbandhan 42%.
32:55The Jan Suraj,
32:565% rural,
32:574% urban.
32:58So the Jan Suraj
33:00in a way,
33:00Sajjan,
33:01could it be
33:02undercounted?
33:03I'm looking at the
33:03caveats.
33:04Let's be honest,
33:05exit polls are not
33:06the final result.
33:07When I look at
33:08these numbers,
33:09if this Jan Suraj
33:10goes from 5% and 4%
33:11to 8%,
33:129%,
33:12not even double digit,
33:14does it change the election?
33:15Because in rural and urban,
33:17the gap is just 2%.
33:19I know it's significant.
33:20It's significant.
33:212% is significant.
33:23But there's also
33:24the possible underpolling
33:26of the Jan Suraj.
33:27Could that be a caveat?
33:29If it goes,
33:30Razdeep,
33:30then certainly.
33:31But what we also see
33:32one of the trends
33:33that voters may like you
33:35and that we got.
33:36But if you do not see
33:37your candidate
33:38as venable ones
33:39in the constituency,
33:41they would vote
33:42to someone else
33:43rather than you.
33:44Yeah,
33:44this is B.R.E. wisdom
33:45that we will give them
33:46the vote
33:46who will win.
33:48Exactly.
33:48So that is why
33:49I do not think
33:50it's underreported.
33:51Razdeep,
33:51I believe that
33:52Prashant Kishore's
33:53real surprise
33:54is that he could do
33:55well in pockets
33:56in rural areas.
33:57It came to me
33:58as a complete surprise
33:59because I was looking
34:00at it as an urban party
34:01in Chhapra,
34:02as you know.
34:03I have seen them
34:03do very well
34:05in Garkha,
34:06in Parsa.
34:07I have seen them
34:08do well in Madhara.
34:09I don't know
34:09what the overall impact
34:10of all this will be,
34:12but I didn't know
34:13that he had struck
34:13according to...
34:14Bipoles, Rajdeep,
34:1511%
34:15Jansuraj took
34:17in Bipoles,
34:1811% vote.
34:19If we are looking
34:20at a 4%,
34:20I think the general
34:21traditional sophology
34:22in the last couple
34:23of days has suggested
34:24that if Prashant Kishore's
34:26Jansuraj polls
34:27about 9%,
34:28then it cuts
34:29into MGB's vote.
34:30If it crosses
34:3111%,
34:32then we are looking
34:33at cutting
34:33into the NDA's
34:35vote share.
34:35At 4%,
34:36has he been
34:37under-polled
34:38is a question
34:38that needs
34:39to be answered.
34:40Maria,
34:41give us those
34:42big numbers
34:43because I think
34:43the election
34:44is still...
34:45This has been
34:46my belief
34:46from day one
34:47in Bihar.
34:48If the Access
34:49My India poll
34:49is right,
34:50what we are about
34:51to...
34:51What Maria is about
34:52to tell you
34:53could be critical.
34:54The gender-wise
34:55division of votes
34:57that's taking place
34:58in Bihar...
34:59Maria,
34:59give us the numbers.
35:00So NDA,
35:01according to
35:02Pradeep Gupta's
35:03Access My India
35:04is getting 45%
35:05of the female
35:06voters and 41%
35:07of the male
35:08voters.
35:09But in comparison
35:09to the Mahagatbandhan,
35:11he's projecting
35:12that 40% female
35:14are going towards
35:14Mahagatbandhan.
35:15There's a gap
35:15between the Mahagatbandhan
35:17and the NDAs
35:18at 5%.
35:19And among the male
35:20voters,
35:21Mahagatbandhan
35:21is getting 1% more.
35:23But when we look
35:24at Jansu Raj,
35:25and I think that
35:25becomes important
35:26again because
35:27Prashant Kishore's
35:28popularity among women
35:29is less.
35:30It's only 3%.
35:31Perhaps more
35:32among the female.
35:33But Rajdeep,
35:34in comparison
35:342000 to 2020,
35:36this is not much
35:37of a swing.
35:38It's not much
35:39of a swing.
35:39Let me just repeat
35:41one.
35:42This is not much
35:43of a swing.
35:43Let me just repeat
35:44this, right?
35:45Because I think
35:45this is significant.
35:47NDA is getting,
35:49just a minute,
35:5041% male vote
35:51is going to the NDA.
35:5341%.
35:5342% Mahagatbandhan,
35:57the Jansu Raj 5,
35:58others 12.
35:59This is as per
35:59Access My India,
36:01a 1% edge
36:02to the Mahagatbandhan.
36:03As we pointed
36:05out at the outset,
36:06Preeti had pointed
36:07out how there was
36:07a gap,
36:08even in absolute
36:09numbers,
36:10between male and
36:11women voters.
36:12About 4.5 lakh
36:13women across Bihar
36:14have voted more
36:15than men.
36:16That's why the
36:17women vote becomes
36:17crucial.
36:18What is the women
36:18vote showing?
36:1945% women,
36:21as per the
36:22Access My India
36:22poll,
36:23are voting for
36:24the NDA.
36:2540% for the
36:26Mahagatbandhan.
36:27It's a 5% gap.
36:284% Rajdeep,
36:3041%,
36:3045%.
36:31No,
36:31no,
36:32please,
36:3245 plays 40.
36:3445 and 40.
36:36Male is 41,
36:3742.
36:37Male is 41.
36:385% gap between
36:40party,
36:41alliance number
36:42one,
36:42that's huge.
36:43Because that could
36:44be making the
36:44difference,
36:45particularly when
36:46there's been a
36:47large voter turnout.
36:49But Rajdeep,
36:49are you surprised
36:50with this?
36:51Or is this what
36:52you saw on the
36:53ground?
36:53No,
36:53Rajdeep,
36:54you did see.
36:54See,
36:54the fact is,
36:55the core
36:56constituency of
36:57Nitish Kumar
36:57is women.
36:59You know,
36:59you go across
37:00Bihar,
37:01many see this
37:01as the 10,000
37:02rupees scheme
37:03that many talk
37:03about as a
37:04top-up.
37:05Was it the
37:0710,000 rupees
37:08that was being
37:08attractive?
37:09Or was it
37:09the fact that
37:10Nitish Kumar
37:11over the last
37:1120 years has
37:12cultivated up
37:13over the years?
37:14Rajdeep,
37:14it's an image
37:15that is cultivated
37:15over years.
37:16It starts off
37:17with a cycle,
37:17then it starts
37:18off metric
37:18after inter,
37:19it's an image
37:23cultivated over
37:24years.
37:24But I'll tell
37:24you what I'm
37:24surprised with
37:25in these numbers.
37:26I would have
37:26expected the
37:28difference to be
37:28more.
37:29If 10,000
37:30rupees was a
37:31factor,
37:31this mirrors
37:32what 2020
37:32was.
37:33And can I
37:34just add,
37:34there is another
37:35fact called
37:37the youva work
37:38within Mahila.
37:39And I've been
37:39time and again
37:40saying I have
37:40gone and
37:41interviewed girls
37:42who were on
37:43cycles in the
37:43last election
37:44but are going
37:45to what are
37:45called inter
37:46colleges in and
37:47around Jahanabad,
37:48which the NDA
37:49is doing quite
37:49well.
37:50And the girl
37:50said,
37:51Aarakhshan
37:52nahi,
37:52Surakshah
37:52chahiye.
37:53Hamare thana
37:54mein mahila
37:55police karmi
37:55lagao,
37:56ta ki hum
37:57Surakshah
37:57se college
37:57who were they
37:58voting for?
37:59The MGB.
38:00The MGB.
38:01So there's a
38:01section of
38:02young.
38:02So there are
38:03two broad
38:03divisions.
38:04One is age
38:05wise and one
38:06is gender.
38:07The problem
38:08for the
38:08Mahagadbandhan
38:09at the moment
38:10seems to be
38:10these numbers
38:11is that the
38:11gender wise
38:12division is
38:13much greater
38:14in terms of
38:15absolute numbers
38:16because women
38:17are the power
38:18of 49 or
38:19power of 50
38:20if you want
38:20to call it
38:21that.
38:22Was there
38:22caste play
38:24a factor
38:24amongst women?
38:26Because I was
38:27surprised I was
38:28expecting.
38:28Rajvi,
38:29this figure
38:29shows caste
38:30has played
38:31a factor.
38:31We know
38:31caste identities
38:32are firm
38:33but despite
38:34those firm
38:35identities there
38:36is a greater
38:36propensity of
38:37women to rise
38:38above caste
38:39identities if
38:40these four
38:40are not.
38:41Am I
38:41correct,
38:41Sanjay?
38:42Precisely
38:42because women
38:43are more
38:43scheme-centric
38:44compared to
38:45the males.
38:46Maria,
38:46are you surprised
38:47to see only
38:48did you expect
38:49an even higher
38:50gap among
38:50women?
38:51I also
38:51pointed out
38:52and we'll
38:52put out
38:53that graphic.
38:53Remember
38:54last time
38:54wherever women
38:55outpolled men
38:57the NDA
38:59won almost
39:00more than
39:0060% of
39:01those seats.
39:03This woman
39:03vote seems
39:04to have stayed
39:05with Neetish
39:06Kumar consistently
39:07now over 15
39:08to 20 years.
39:09He comes from
39:10a community
39:10caste since
39:11caste is being
39:12mentioned which
39:12is just 2.5
39:14to 3% and
39:15yet is able to
39:16pull in 15-16
39:17percent vote
39:18consistently.
39:18Does the
39:20woman have
39:20an emotional
39:22attachment?
39:22Is it as you
39:23once told me
39:24that they see
39:24this as a
39:25farewell gift
39:26for Neetish
39:26Kumar?
39:27Absolutely.
39:27I would say
39:28gratitude.
39:28Women tend to
39:30have more
39:31gratitude and
39:32that's why
39:32this is what
39:33is reflecting.
39:34Women tend to
39:35have more
39:35gratitude?
39:36Yes.
39:37That's very
39:37unfair.
39:38But we'll go
39:38ahead.
39:39But this 5%
39:40that I'm seeing
39:41is perhaps less
39:42than what we
39:43were sensing on
39:44ground.
39:44100%.
39:45We were sensing
39:46just about
39:47almost like
39:47women consolidating
39:48behind Neetish
39:49Kumar.
39:50Something like
39:502010 kind of
39:52consolidation and
39:52surge among the
39:53women.
39:54That's not
39:54reflecting in
39:55these numbers
39:56at the moment.
39:57But yes,
39:57as we have been
39:58saying in 2020
39:59the elections
40:00shifted only when
40:01the women
40:01outnumbered men.
40:03They started
40:03voting in more
40:04numbers and as
40:05the elections
40:06moved it was
40:07almost in the
40:08third and the
40:08second phase it
40:09was close to
40:106 to 7%.
40:10That's not
40:11reflecting in
40:12these numbers
40:12right now.
40:12So is this
40:13the Das Azariah
40:15election or
40:15not?
40:16Had you not
40:17given the
40:1710,000 rupees
40:18the gap might
40:20have been even
40:20lower.
40:21No, no, but
40:21Rajdi,
40:22that was the
40:22way the NDA
40:24countered
40:25anti-incumbency.
40:26There are
40:26infinite counter
40:27factuals we
40:28can debate
40:28to no end.
40:29There is no
40:30point doing
40:30that.
40:31Das Azari was
40:32there, is
40:33there, will
40:33be there.
40:34Now look at
40:35what you were
40:35saying.
40:35You mentioned
40:37at the outset
40:38there is
40:38anti-incumbency.
40:39Do you believe
40:39the BJP in
40:40particular sensed
40:41it and that's
40:41why I decided
40:42one month
40:43before the
40:43election, we
40:44have to give
40:44this 10,000
40:45it's not
40:45going to work
40:45otherwise.
40:46See, 10,000
40:46is such a
40:47big amount
40:48that in
40:48the house
40:48it's 10,000
40:50in 10,000
40:51in 10,000
40:51it's 10,000
40:52too.
40:52No, no, no, no, no.
40:54All the women
41:00have said
41:01cylinder
41:01ka daam
41:02itna
41:0210,000
41:03rupiah
41:03me
41:03coaching
41:04me
41:04bachche
41:04ka
41:05maryah
41:05bachche
41:06ka mailah
41:06bhi
41:06ne
41:07what is
41:08Tejasvi
41:08doing
41:08then?
41:09My point
41:10is
41:1110,000
41:12rupiah
41:12cost
41:13a
41:13cost
41:13by
41:14nuh
41:14man
41:14That 10,000 rupees was about income generation.
41:21They got goods.
41:22I saw women setting up pelas because of 10,000 rupees.
41:26Okay, let Najat complete.
41:28My limited point, Mariya, is 5% is also not a natural gap.
41:34It's quite a big gap.
41:37You look at any historical election, right, from Jailalita's time or any other time.
41:42See, this is what constituency he has developed and condensed over time.
41:46This is an ossification of a vote base which doesn't change.
41:49I just want to say the CSDS post-poll survey of 2020 had only given a 1% lead among women to the NDA over the Mahagadbanda.
41:58So, there is a shift.
41:59All I'm saying, this is a significant 5%.
42:02Don't belittle 5%.
42:03To my mind, this is the key factor.
42:07If the Axis MyIndia poll is right, 45% women have voted for one side versus 40% on the other.
42:13It is game set and almost match.
42:15That's the way I see it.
42:17The youth will, of course, be a counterbalance.
42:20If the youth also went the same way, it would be a landslide.
42:22Because the youth have not voted one way, it's a tighter fight.
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