NDA has slight edge over Mahagathbandhan in Bihar assembly polls: Survey

India Today

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a slight edge over Mahagathbandhan in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, according to CVoter survey.

Transcript

00:00Let's put that question. Who has the edge in the BR election? And I'll get our political guests to respond.

00:06Because the numbers are interesting. NDA, as per the C voter poll, is at 40.2%.

00:14The Mahagat Bandhan is at 38.3%. The Jan Suraj is at 13.3%.

00:24Remember, this is what we are looking at as of today. As of today, who has the edge of the three?

00:35There is a small 2% edge, which has been given in this poll by C voter.

00:42Given that this is probably within the margin of error, I want to get the possibility of a very tight race

00:51that we are probably heading for in Bihar.

00:55Guru Prakash Paswan, do you accept that this is a tighter race?

01:00Last time also, the margin was just 12,000 votes between the two sides.

01:04Or do you believe things have changed in five years? Our numbers are showing tight race.

01:09No, Rajdeep ji, if you look at the numbers from last time, the difference was 0.03%, if I'm not mistaken.

01:16And this time, it's showing almost 2%. So, I think 0.03% to 2% is a substantial jump if we go by your figure.

01:25But as far as we are concerned, as Amitav ji said, I would like to reiterate that the commitment and the dedication

01:31of our Matai and Behne for the leadership of Nikish Kumar has been immense.

01:35And we are grateful for it.

01:37The kind of initiatives that Bihar has taken when it comes to women empowerment has been the hallmark of women-led development.

01:43Be it introducing reservation in the panchayas, the local self-government,

01:47Bihar today boosts the highest women participation in terms of the women police workforce, and so on and so forth.

01:53But as far as we are concerned, Nitish Kumar's twin pillar of Vikas and Nayai.

01:57Vikas, which is welfare and delivery. Nayai, which is taking every section of the society along.

02:03Janna Ekarpuri Thakur was attributed with the top most civilian honor, which is the Bharat Ratna.

02:08And on the other hand, we have a Rahul Gandhi and a Tejasui Yadav, where there is a constant tussle,

02:12a constant conflict of who is the real Jannai act.

02:15We have a face. We have a doula.

02:16We have a doula in form of Nitish Kumar.

02:19You have a doula in form of Nitish Kumar.

02:23I will take your word for it because there will be an interesting question that will come next.

02:27But Kanchanah Yadav, your first reactions.

02:30Clearly, your challenge is how do you make this 38 cross 40?

02:33You have an MY vote. In this case, Muslim Yadav, that has been your core.

02:38You need new voters.

02:40Akhilesh Yadav showed what could be done in Uttar Pradesh and Lok Sabha by winning over new voters, new caste groups.

02:48Is the Mahagadbandan ready for that?

02:51Nayai voter kaha se aayenge beyond your MY combination?

02:55We have the voters beyond our MY combination, Rajdev Ji.

02:59I am assuring you.

03:00And first, I think this survey has been conducted based on the recent,

03:05by keeping in mind the recent announcement of the NDA government in Bihar,

03:10which is just taken before the election announcement.

03:12So I think this is not going to work because this election is against the establishment,

03:22as I said before.

03:23So I think what we have is the credibility in the youth.

03:27The advice that the party is giving to the RJD, because there are also familial relations between the two,

03:33is if it was PD and 2024 Lok Sabha, then from MY, you should convert it to my BAP,

03:39which is Bahujan, Adivasi and Pichada.

03:42And you already have the MY combination.

03:45Prithi Ji, we have the voters from across the caste and community.

03:49We are not just my, but BAP also, we are A to Z party.

03:53So labelling us like MY combination only, I think it's not going to work in this election.

04:00We have the bigger, you know, voters.

04:02We have the voters in Atipichada.

04:04We have voters in Dalit, Adivasi.

04:06We have voters in Alp Sankhya as well.

04:08So labelling us, like entire India Garbantar, entire India alliance in Bihar,

04:13as a MY semi-car is not going to work.

04:16We have…

04:17Can I bring in for a moment Manisha Priyam, do you agree Manisha looking at these numbers,

04:21the big challenge for Tejasvi Yadav is to try and do an Akhilesh Yadav.

04:26If I can draw a parallel, widen his alliance.

04:28There is already talk that he is going to give a lot of tickets, for example, to the Kushwa community.

04:32Just as Akhilesh Yadav gave a fair number of seats to the Kurmi community in Uttar Pradesh.

04:38Then you need one more solid caste base if you are to actually cross that 40% magic mark.

04:49So I think you are right.

04:52There's already been a shift.

04:53UP and Bihar are a little different.

04:56Remember also that the RJD is supported by the CPIML of which we have discussed almost nothing.

05:03In the last Lok Sabha elections, although the RJD did not do well in its traditional strongholds,

05:08in the areas where there was an RJD-CPIML combination and a Kushwaha caste to top it all,

05:14they had magical results.

05:16And the example was the Aurangabad seat known as the Chittagarh of Bihar,

05:21where a Kushwaha-RJD candidate won.

05:24There's much local politicking happening around.

05:27But the BJP and the NDA's Kushwaha card slightly weaker with Samrat Chaudhary on the back foot.

05:35And Upender Kushwaha not churning electoral victories.

05:38But the fact is that the EBC, the Ati Pichada Pachphornath caste,

05:43that Nitish Kumar had stitched up through his welfare and developmentalism,

05:47that vote bank needs to be seen, whether it still continues to be with Nitish Kumar in his name,

05:55even in his sunset of political leadership and his political career,

05:59or is the RJD able to make any dent there?

06:03And here I think the Vikas, Steele, Insan Party made for some chances.

06:10But I still don't see the RJD having,

06:13I still haven't seen the RJD having deep enough, down enough,

06:19to get the Dalit Vote Bank, the Maha Dalit Vote Bank.

06:22How they do it is a challenge.

06:24That's where the Congress comes in.

06:26Go ahead, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead, Maria.

06:28Let me bring in Maria, yes.

06:30That's where the Congress comes in, because there is this sense,

06:33particularly after the Vote Adhikari Yatra of Rahul Gandhi,

06:37that there could be a shift of the Dalits in particular.

06:40Yes, Maha Dalits could be going, particularly the Paswans could be with the NDA,

06:46but the Maha Dalits could be coming this side,

06:49the Dalits could be coming this side,

06:51and also among the EBCs, because there are in all 130 smaller parties

06:56which are driven by their occupation,

06:58like the, you know, the boatmen and the barbers and all.

07:03So, in that, the VIP party becomes important.

07:07They are a party that essentially...

07:09Driven by the occupation.

07:10The boatmen, the Malla community in Mandikla,

07:14are the ones who go with the VIP.

07:16You know, there are a lot of viewers,

07:17who every time we discuss Bihar,

07:19ask, you focus on a lot of caste.

07:21The fact is, this is Bihar.

07:24And among all the states that have been seriously mandalized

07:28over the last 20, 25 years or 30 years,

07:32Bihar is still strongly mandalized.

07:35At least that's what most polls have shown,

07:38even in the results over the last 30 years.

07:40When Lalu Prasad Yadar won that big majority in 1995,

07:43the first election I covered in Bihar,

07:46I found that Lalu's base was largely driven

07:49by a broad caste coalition

07:50that included a coalition of the poor.

07:53That over the years has fractured in different ways.

07:56Lalu Prasad is not campaigning this time,

07:59but Nitish Kumar is still the chehra or the dhulha

08:02as Guru Prakash Paswan called it.

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